The most interesting thing I see is that the S&P tagged a perfect 1.382 above the 2020 Feb top (corrective wave), but it came up a hair short of 1.618 from the March low.
I am not sure a Wave B can go as high as 1.382. I have only read that it can go to 1.236. However, a few people have commented to me that they have seen text cite 1.382 as the absolute max.
In all of my wave analysis I have never seen a motive wave come up short of 1.618 for a wave 3, especially considering how much FOMO there has been this past year.
What I do have is the megaphone pattern established. The origin is on Dec 6, 2017. This date was pretty clear for the support line, but the resistance line has been tricky. Most of us though that it had already been breached (pink line). IMO, I think the rally in February last year would have tagged this resistance line also, but COVID ended it early. Thus, the crazy rally that we had this past year.
Where does it go from here? Don't know exactly. If we just ended motive wave 3, then we could hit a wave 5 top around 4300. If we are in a corrective wave, then the bottom could be really far down. A full 1.618 retrace would be 1147, but that seem hard to believe. A large correction to 1.146 retrace would be around 1939, which is about the same % lower compared to the previous major lows since 2018. I think a more likely level is 0.382 retrace at around 3220 level (back to around June 2020 high).
Corrective theory
Motive theory
Weekly
Regression channels
Rally Channel
Rising wedge pattern
I am not sure a Wave B can go as high as 1.382. I have only read that it can go to 1.236. However, a few people have commented to me that they have seen text cite 1.382 as the absolute max.
In all of my wave analysis I have never seen a motive wave come up short of 1.618 for a wave 3, especially considering how much FOMO there has been this past year.
What I do have is the megaphone pattern established. The origin is on Dec 6, 2017. This date was pretty clear for the support line, but the resistance line has been tricky. Most of us though that it had already been breached (pink line). IMO, I think the rally in February last year would have tagged this resistance line also, but COVID ended it early. Thus, the crazy rally that we had this past year.
Where does it go from here? Don't know exactly. If we just ended motive wave 3, then we could hit a wave 5 top around 4300. If we are in a corrective wave, then the bottom could be really far down. A full 1.618 retrace would be 1147, but that seem hard to believe. A large correction to 1.146 retrace would be around 1939, which is about the same % lower compared to the previous major lows since 2018. I think a more likely level is 0.382 retrace at around 3220 level (back to around June 2020 high).
Corrective theory
Motive theory
Weekly
Regression channels
Rally Channel
Rising wedge pattern
Comment:
As of the morning of Friday Feb 5 the S&P tags the 1.618 fib level.
