S&P500 Sell if the 4H MA50 breaks.

The S&P500 index (SPX) is turning sideways following the enormous rally of November, which is close to being the best in history. That is a natural technical reaction by the market in an attempt to normalize the largely overbought 1D time-frame.

This sideways trade that indicates a potential exhaustion, is complimented by the Bearish Divergence on the 4H RSI, which would justify a technical pull-back. The very same Bearish Divergence was last seen during the late July peak formation.

The structures overall between now and July are quite similar, starting with a Cup bottom and peaking when the curve flattened. Our sell signal confirmation is a break and 4H candle closing below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). In that case, we will target the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (as on August 03) at 4465.


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