WallStScalper
Long

A Gartley Butterfly Dancing in USOIL?

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
The C-leg in a Gartley harmonic pattern seems almost done and D-leg ready to go.

In the very short term I'm bearish ... but will become almost "all in" bullish with a decisive move off the bottom.

If you cast a glance at my other chart on $USOIL l've made by using the Elliott Wave technique -
you'll see that the 1.618 extension of wave 1 comes in around the same target as the D-leg 1.272 extension .

Safe trading ladies and gents!

@BLawrenceM

Music at work:
http://open.spotify.com/track/1ZfTRi7OivWY9iBSJodzvQ
yep agree.
we may see 44 but otherwise i think it is bullish too which could help equities in this posture.
+1 Reply
very nice TK
+1 Reply
thanks for sharing,
if we see the price is below 44, what does this analysis tell us?
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That the pattern is not playing out as drawn. It's a pattern that have the potential of making a D-leg, but we need to see conformation. No confirmation....no trade
+1 Reply
YaKa PRO WallStScalper
confo above 48?
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First criteria is not to make a lower low preferable to set in a higher low at 44.92 or higher. That would indeed be bullish. There are different patterns that could play out and the bearish butterfly would be one of the more aggressive ones. The X to A-leg should in a perfect world have been 78,6...it's not - therefore a D-leg (right wing) of only a 78.6 retrace could be a more conservative outcome and called bearish gartley. The tricky part on this chart is where the X-leg starts exactly .... it's not perfectly clear.
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Marek99 WallStScalper
I think you will get a much smaller right wing then you drawn, but overall I am bearish on oil... any upswings will be a short.
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You might be right.... Just had a interesting chat with jangseohee on his chart about the possibility of oil heading for a panic low of.......24 dollars.... Cast a glance at the chat below his chart.
CL1!, can the continuation be discontinued?
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look4edge WallStScalper
Below daily CL chart, now sitting at Year 2014 S3 and longterm support trendline from 1986 lows.
Bear flag looks completed and ready to break down, need to be confirmed by new low. Closest target 41.50/41.15 = fib extension of downmove and historic support, then 34.60 = yearly S1 and 2009 lows.
There is also chance for your pattern (bearish btw.), if broken 48.75 by daily close, then room up to 53.60 or 55.50-56 area, but i do not expect that scenario.
CCI long is deep below zero and looks bearish, weekly CCI long is even more bearish, levels below -300 do not indicate early turn. Also price action so far does not look like in 2009 bottom with swings over 30 pct, so i favor downtrend continuation.

snapshot
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