In the very short term I'm ... but will become almost "all in" with a decisive move off the bottom.
If you cast a glance at my other chart on $USOIL l've made by using the technique -
you'll see that the of wave 1 comes in around the same target as the D-leg .
Safe trading ladies and gents!
Music at work:
Bear flag looks completed and ready to break down, need to be confirmed by new low. Closest target 41.50/41.15 = fib extension of downmove and historic support, then 34.60 = yearly S1 and 2009 lows.
There is also chance for your pattern (bearish btw.), if broken 48.75 by daily close, then room up to 53.60 or 55.50-56 area, but i do not expect that scenario.
CCI long is deep below zero and looks bearish, weekly CCI long is even more bearish, levels below -300 do not indicate early turn. Also price action so far does not look like in 2009 bottom with swings over 30 pct, so i favor downtrend continuation.