Crude oil long opportunity USOIL WTICOUSD CL2!

We have a long opportunity in crude oil now. Crude oil has been sitting at the 61.8% retrace around 45.40ish for the last couple of days.

A study of the longer term cycles shows that we have just completed a corrective red zone which actually started in March 2018, this cycle reached a low in December 2018 and will reach its next high in June 2019.

We are still in a green (bullish) longer term zone which started January 2016 and should end around July 2019.

These cycles are represented by the different types of vertical lines on the charts.

I believe after August 2019, we will have the chance to short oil once again.

If the 61.8% retrace does fail, then we may see a drop to $36-40, so be careful.

Stop loss 44.90

Short term target 51

Longer term targets range from 62 and up.


This is not recommendation to buy or to sell.

(see information about cycles at the DJIA links below)

Trade closed: stop reached:

Stop reached. Closed position. Look for a new entry opportunity which may be soon.

Comment:

There is a longer-term fib support at .786 retrace from the 2008 high from the prior 1999 low. This fib retrace lands at around $39. Due to the longer term nature of this fib line, it should be stronger support but do note that in 2009 there were several wicks on the monthly chart that were LOWER than $39 before it started going up again. This means even if $39 holds on the 1 month candle chart, we could see even lower levels.

The next shorter term fib level (retrace from 2016-2018 high) puts it at around $36 on the shorter term.

Comment:

I suspect oil will see a short term bottom any day now. We can either buy on the next fib support at $39 ish or $36 ish. OR if it breaks and holds above the downward red dotted line, then this is a buy with resistance at the fib lines around $45 and $51.