During the last posts, we tracked the last leg of triple three cycle wave ((2)). Our short trades secured us a profit of 3.4% of equity during this month, as per the trades posted. We always reason in terms of Equity Points since we believe it helps in reasoning in terms of risk managment.
We anticipated that, when this corrective move will be finished, a big upside will resume in cycle wave (3).
Which fundamentals will be consistent with this future possibility?
As written in our manifesto, we believe that fundamentals unfold simultaneoulsy with price. Hence we can not know now. But we can imagine some fundamental scenario that will be consistent with this prediction.
For example, just imagine that countries will continue to use oil until it will be worn out (which is not so unlikely).
What will happen before it worns out, if there is still demand?
With how much anticipation the market will price this dynamic?
This is just speculation, and when we look to the chart we see that price is retesting the simmetrical triangle after a 5 wave down.
We could have bottomed, but we are not assuming it to be our main case since:
1.- retail sentiment is still very high to the bullish side
2- our big 57-63 confluence zone has not been tagged
3- our leading indicator (exposed here) constructed with futures term spread and EIA inventories still did not reverse.
Hence, we are counting this current price action as a double zig zag targeting our conlfluence zone for the completion of wave Z.
Since price tagged (a)=(c) in the last three wave up from 64, we entered short at @73.72-
Our stop loss is at 74.64 for 0.5% risk.
We will update here!
GMR
We anticipated that, when this corrective move will be finished, a big upside will resume in cycle wave (3).
Which fundamentals will be consistent with this future possibility?
As written in our manifesto, we believe that fundamentals unfold simultaneoulsy with price. Hence we can not know now. But we can imagine some fundamental scenario that will be consistent with this prediction.
For example, just imagine that countries will continue to use oil until it will be worn out (which is not so unlikely).
What will happen before it worns out, if there is still demand?
With how much anticipation the market will price this dynamic?
This is just speculation, and when we look to the chart we see that price is retesting the simmetrical triangle after a 5 wave down.
We could have bottomed, but we are not assuming it to be our main case since:
1.- retail sentiment is still very high to the bullish side
2- our big 57-63 confluence zone has not been tagged
3- our leading indicator (exposed here) constructed with futures term spread and EIA inventories still did not reverse.
Hence, we are counting this current price action as a double zig zag targeting our conlfluence zone for the completion of wave Z.
Since price tagged (a)=(c) in the last three wave up from 64, we entered short at @73.72-
Our stop loss is at 74.64 for 0.5% risk.
We will update here!
GMR
Trade active:
short added. avg. entry @73.64 stop loss 74.64 risk 0.8%
Trade closed: stop reached:
stopped out
