breakoutfakeout

Which way will oil break???

TVC:USOIL   CFDs on WTI Crude Oil
Here we are at the crossroads, US crude oil has put in a lower high and lower low on the hourly charts and we could see another move downwards.

This is an interesting trade as we could either see a continuation flag to the upside where we may break major resistance and pile on up to 28. Or we could see a cup and handle reversal pattern and see a retest down to 20-21. As such i'm on the sidelines waiting to see. At time of writing we just saw a breakout fakeout of the flag and so now we could see the cup and handle come into play. Or another go at the flag (5 min moving averages are indicating long trade). In these types of situations its easy to get burnt multiple times trying to trade breakouts. Better to wait until an explosive move comes in which would negate the other potential pattern.
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Comment: And so it was break to the downside, hope you all got some good profits!
Trade closed: target reached

Comments

consider today's move the flag break? looking at your Stoch 14 3 3, looks like a uptrend?
Reply
@masifaiz, Very deceptive wasn't it, the lower highs were the giveaway though combined with the fundamentals of low demand for oil from shut down business. It just ground lower after the breakout fakeout of the flag and retraced all the way back to the lower trendline.
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masifaiz breakoutfakeout
@breakoutfakeout, indeed it was. I'm in for the long run :) these prices are not sustainable for anyone
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