TVC:USOIL   CFDs on WTI Crude Oil
We are very close to the breakdown.I would like to remind you how much patience was needed for oil's last ICL trade.
You needed the patience to wait while the flowers were growing from the stone here:


... and we were waiting and it suddenly dropped:



.. and we were waiting for the next short opportunity:



...and we shorted again:



... added shorts to the position:



Though we entered too early into the long position:



... almost noone believed what was coming :



Even I underestimated oil             last summer. I predicted 60$ and it hit almost 65$... But right now we are at the end of this cycle. It's the topping phase again.
So we are waiting. Again.
Why one need to be in a short position? Because the first day when it drops is going to be a 5-7% down day. After a drop like that you will be psychologically destroyed and have no idea where to enter. If you enter after a 6% drop price will immediately reverse and rally 4-5% next day. If you don't enter it will drop 3% again next day. And you will be kicking yourself. So I suggest to have the short position what you can hold even if it pops 1-2$ more and it will drop one day.
Reason for a drop:
-The intermediate cycle is extremely long. One of the longest I have ever seen.
-It rallied hard for 6 months(!). So believe me it will drop hard as one of the big players will start to take profit on the longs. One starts the rest will follow.
- Commercials are short. Not just they : their wife , son , daughter , dog , cat. So everybody and his dog is short at the commercials. And they are adding to the shorts week after week.

Indicators:
Though there is no candlestick pattern yet - don't be surprised and don't stop out if we have a higher high one morning in the next days: that is going to turn down by the close printing a key reversal, or a shooting star- the indicators are turning down:
TSI gave in the early signal
RSI just left the overbought territory
MACD also crossing over

We are just crawling on the 10 EMA . The break below the 10 EMA will sign that the move into the ICL is starting.
I think the first day will be a fast move. When we break below it (50EMA) it will drop down to the 50 EMA at 59.45$.
The next level will be the breakout level and the 100 SMA at 54-55. From that point we have to be cautious.
THere is a decent chance that we drop to the 200 SMA but it will depend on what's happening at the stock market at that time. If we are starting to print a crypto-like-parabolic-rally then I will not risk the shorts in oil             -0.48% because in the euphoria oil             stocks will rally along with oil             .

I think the drop will stop somewhere between 50-54. And will not go below 45,5$.

So all we have to do is to wait now. The drop will come.




Comment:
Comment: 1. Tag of 50 EMA completed.
2. Almost tagged the 100 SMA
3. The next I'm waiting for is the break of 54.74$.

Lock some profits on the way down at these important levels: 100 SMA, 54,74$ and 200 SMA. I closed 25% today. I will close 50% at 54.74 and try to ride the drop to the 200 SMA with 25%.
Comment:
Comment: Show must go on...
Today we had the chance to bounce after yesterday's inverted hammer.
But price just broke below yesterday's low negating the candlestick pattern.
I think the RSI oversold zigzag scenario is coming what is typical for OIL's intermediate correction. Soon the 100 SMA will be tested again and this time it will break. The next important level is between 54.74-56$.
I will close 25% again between 55-56$.
Comment: RSI has arrived to overbought territory.
It should be topping here, but if you have money to invest I suggest to buy nasdaq or S&P index.
Comment:
Comment: Buy QQQ or the3x leveraged TQQQ. Or just buy the NAS100usd etf or SPX500USD etf
Comment: If price stays below 63.20 by the close Im going to sell the closed 25% again.
Comment: After yesterday’s red candle we have the follow through. Barring a complete reversal of today’s candle I will sell the 25% again an hour before today’s close
Comment:
Comment:
I will wait till 71 USD and then shortit. I will take profit at 65,4 USD. Once it touch 71 I assume that it will drop down to 65,4 USD quite quickly. My stop loss will be above 75 USD. If it gets triggered then oil will be heading to 80 USD.
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Looks like we've added a one more daily cycle onto the intermediate cycle. Other cyclists are also calling for a drop into an ICL. Targets vary. I've recycled 25% twice now. I'm still targeting 25% at 100MA and remainder between 100 and 200MA. Patience indeed.
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Wow another bullish report but still looking for a test of the 100 MA on the daily...U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 425.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.1 million barrels last week, but are in the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.5 million barrels last week but are in the lower half of the average range
for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.6 million barrels last week, but are in the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels last week.
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Neutral report - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 429.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 3.5 million barrels last week, but are in the upper half of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories remained
unchanged while blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.2 million barrels last week, and are in the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels last week.
The exports continue to reduce the surplus but I am looking for a test of the 50 EMA or 100 MA on the daily sometime in the next 2-3 wks will load up on more E&P.
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Hey Arpi,
now only chance for bears on charts is a double top.
Seems like we get a lot of manipulation between USA and SA,,,honestly bears needs more "hopes" than patience.

Regards
Reply
Is everyone still holding the short position?
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FYI - EIA report U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 428.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels last week, but are near the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.0 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels last week, and are in the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 6.9 million barrels last week.

Given the "W" pattern on the daily I think we are looking at $65 - $66 in the short term
+1 Reply
Pippie MMadryga
@MMadryga, It looks you are right.
Reply
Wow. I don't like trading on hope, but I am hoping this morning is just a false breakout above the pennant.
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FYI While we had what seemed to be a bearish report U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.5 million barrels from the previous week, we offset that crude storage build by eliminating 6.3 million barrels from gasoline storage and 4.4 million barrels from distillate storage for a total stockpile drop of 4.5 million barrels. What's more is we now have the maintenance season ending with 50% of refiners coming back online by the end of this week. Of note is the fact that US exports were down to 1.4 million barrels a day due to the maintenance. With exports included we can safely project that the crude storage surplus will be gone by the end of the month. Overall our EIA report thus was bullish and I am looking for an AVERAGE of $70 per barrel for the remainder of the year. We might have some fluctuation with regard to that $70 price but each drop should be considered an opportunity to go long. With the 50 EMA and 100 MA converging and providing resistance I think we would need to break the 100 MA to realize a profitable short at $59. We might get that early to mid April as refiners convert to the summer fuel mixture and use up the remaining winter blend. Hope this helps.
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