You needed the patience to wait while the flowers were growing from the stone here:
... and we were waiting and it suddenly dropped:
.. and we were waiting for the next short opportunity:
...and we shorted again:
... added shorts to the position:
Though we entered too early into the long position:
... almost noone believed what was coming :
Even I underestimated oil last summer. I predicted 60$ and it hit almost 65$... But right now we are at the end of this cycle. It's the topping phase again.
So we are waiting. Again.
Why one need to be in a short position? Because the first day when it drops is going to be a 5-7% down day. After a drop like that you will be psychologically destroyed and have no idea where to enter. If you enter after a 6% drop price will immediately reverse and rally 4-5% next day. If you don't enter it will drop 3% again next day. And you will be kicking yourself. So I suggest to have the short position what you can hold even if it pops 1-2$ more and it will drop one day.
Reason for a drop:
-The intermediate cycle is extremely long. One of the longest I have ever seen.
-It rallied hard for 6 months(!). So believe me it will drop hard as one of the big players will start to take profit on the longs. One starts the rest will follow.
- Commercials are short. Not just they : their wife , son , daughter , dog , cat. So everybody and his dog is short at the commercials. And they are adding to the shorts week after week.
Though there is no pattern yet - don't be surprised and don't stop out if we have a higher high one morning in the next days: that is going to turn down by the close printing a key reversal, or a shooting star- the indicators are turning down:
TSI gave in the early signal
just left the overbought territory
also crossing over
We are just crawling on the 10 . The break below the 10 will sign that the move into the ICL is starting.
I think the first day will be a fast move. When we break below it (50EMA) it will drop down to the 50 at 59.45$.
The next level will be the breakout level and the 100 at 54-55. From that point we have to be cautious.
THere is a decent chance that we drop to the 200 but it will depend on what's happening at the stock market at that time. If we are starting to print a crypto-like-parabolic-rally then I will not risk the shorts in oil -0.48% because in the euphoria oil stocks will rally along with oil .
I think the drop will stop somewhere between 50-54. And will not go below 45,5$.
So all we have to do is to wait now. The drop will come.
2. Almost tagged the 100 SMA
3. The next I'm waiting for is the break of 54.74$.
Lock some profits on the way down at these important levels: 100 SMA, 54,74$ and 200 SMA. I closed 25% today. I will close 50% at 54.74 and try to ride the drop to the 200 SMA with 25%.
Today we had the chance to bounce after yesterday's inverted hammer.
But price just broke below yesterday's low negating the candlestick pattern.
I think the RSI oversold zigzag scenario is coming what is typical for OIL's intermediate correction. Soon the 100 SMA will be tested again and this time it will break. The next important level is between 54.74-56$.
I will close 25% again between 55-56$.
It should be topping here, but if you have money to invest I suggest to buy nasdaq or S&P index.
Though I think we bottomed - maybe a few more days in this volatility coil - and a bounce is coming : I still think in 2019 March we will test or marginally break the multi year resistance at 43$. That will be oil's next multi year low before the rally starts again above 70$.