TVC:USOIL   CFDs on WTI Crude Oil
We are very close to the breakdown.I would like to remind you how much patience was needed for oil's last ICL trade.
You needed the patience to wait while the flowers were growing from the stone here:


... and we were waiting and it suddenly dropped:



.. and we were waiting for the next short opportunity:



...and we shorted again:



... added shorts to the position:



Though we entered too early into the long position:



... almost noone believed what was coming :



Even I underestimated oil             last summer. I predicted 60$ and it hit almost 65$... But right now we are at the end of this cycle. It's the topping phase again.
So we are waiting. Again.
Why one need to be in a short position? Because the first day when it drops is going to be a 5-7% down day. After a drop like that you will be psychologically destroyed and have no idea where to enter. If you enter after a 6% drop price will immediately reverse and rally 4-5% next day. If you don't enter it will drop 3% again next day. And you will be kicking yourself. So I suggest to have the short position what you can hold even if it pops 1-2$ more and it will drop one day.
Reason for a drop:
-The intermediate cycle is extremely long. One of the longest I have ever seen.
-It rallied hard for 6 months(!). So believe me it will drop hard as one of the big players will start to take profit on the longs. One starts the rest will follow.
- Commercials are short. Not just they : their wife , son , daughter , dog , cat. So everybody and his dog is short at the commercials. And they are adding to the shorts week after week.

Indicators:
Though there is no candlestick pattern yet - don't be surprised and don't stop out if we have a higher high one morning in the next days: that is going to turn down by the close printing a key reversal, or a shooting star- the indicators are turning down:
TSI gave in the early signal
RSI just left the overbought territory
MACD also crossing over

We are just crawling on the 10 EMA . The break below the 10 EMA will sign that the move into the ICL is starting.
I think the first day will be a fast move. When we break below it (50EMA) it will drop down to the 50 EMA at 59.45$.
The next level will be the breakout level and the 100 SMA at 54-55. From that point we have to be cautious.
THere is a decent chance that we drop to the 200 SMA but it will depend on what's happening at the stock market at that time. If we are starting to print a crypto-like-parabolic-rally then I will not risk the shorts in oil             -0.48% because in the euphoria oil             stocks will rally along with oil             .

I think the drop will stop somewhere between 50-54. And will not go below 45,5$.

So all we have to do is to wait now. The drop will come.




Comment:
snapshot
Comment: 1. Tag of 50 EMA completed.
2. Almost tagged the 100 SMA
3. The next I'm waiting for is the break of 54.74$.

Lock some profits on the way down at these important levels: 100 SMA, 54,74$ and 200 SMA. I closed 25% today. I will close 50% at 54.74 and try to ride the drop to the 200 SMA with 25%.
Comment:
snapshot
Comment: Show must go on...
Today we had the chance to bounce after yesterday's inverted hammer.
But price just broke below yesterday's low negating the candlestick pattern.
I think the RSI oversold zigzag scenario is coming what is typical for OIL's intermediate correction. Soon the 100 SMA will be tested again and this time it will break. The next important level is between 54.74-56$.
I will close 25% again between 55-56$.
Comment: RSI has arrived to overbought territory.
It should be topping here, but if you have money to invest I suggest to buy nasdaq or S&P index.
Comment:
snapshot
Comment: Buy QQQ or the3x leveraged TQQQ. Or just buy the NAS100usd etf or SPX500USD etf
It looks like the oil and NAS go up or down together theses days. So be careful if you wanna short oil but long NAS.
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Careful with OIL SHORTS folks.. The Stock Market rocket ship is lighting OIL on fire and we might need 1 more Daily Cycle before we roll over into an ICL.
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If anyone trusts this is the top of the rebound into the ICL, this is the time to add the 25% short position back in.... Anyone? Arpi?
+1 Reply
@bertcoin, RSI in overbought territory possible that it’s topping. I just wait for a candlestick pattern
+1 Reply
Hmmm.... I was expecting a small Build but we got a Decrease even with "Refineries operated at 88.1% of their operable capacity last week. "

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 420.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.4 million barrels last week and are in the middle of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels last week, and are in the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 7.9 million barrels last week.
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I'm still short 3/4 position. This was the predicted rebound that would be the last shorting opportunity - I hope.... Still have targets to unload shorts on my charts as posted....
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Big bear trend oil is 44 then 26
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Arpi, any updated oil, still short? Thanks a lot
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Once again, as expected we should continue to have small builds through the rest of the maintenance season.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 422.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.5 million barrels last week and are in the middle of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels last week, and are in the middle of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 2.7 million barrels last week.
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sold all shorts position.
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