Oil: Early entry into potential weekly trade

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
The oil             chart has had bearish overtones for a while now, and despite feeble attempts by the bulls to drive price above the highest volume node at 46.24, it seems like bears are winning in this juncture.
I'd place a couple of entries here, looking to capture the downside move.

It's possible, once the 2nd order is triggered, that we get a 55% chance of hitting 22.03 in the coming months. Time expiration for the decline would be by March 21st, 2016, but it can reach this abysmal target sooner than that as well, as long as it trends down below the blue line on chart.

For more information and insights into managing this position, scaling in, and understanding the logic behind the technical setups contact me via pm. I'm currently hosting a skype group, where I share trade setups and also provide traders with training, as well as 2 private webinars per week, and also giving tutoring via skype calls, on a one on one basis.
Good luck if you take this trade.


Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Trade active:
Comment: All good, hopefully we get the weekly confirmation.
Trade active: We have confirmation.
Hold shorts!
Comment: Beast win!
Comment: New low...
Comment: On track...we can add on weekly retracement.
Trade closed manually: Action might turn extremely volatile, looks like we're forming a bottom.
You really see it continues towards 22? Another 50% decline? I think we are heading Higher before Lower.. but this is a crazy market so..
When Technicals look unclear to me, that's when I get the feel that I need something beyond the charts. Some Insider, Some Fundamental behind the instrument.
themarketzone PRO moorekapital
It's not a matter of clarity. It's a matter of how you read the info the chart provides. For me, the weekly pattern is still in play.. for Ivan, he see different things. Both ideas are valid.
Is crude about to launch a massive rally?
+1 Reply
timwest PRO themarketzone
All ideas are VALID - always - until you hit your stop.
+2 Reply
Evgeny00 PRO themarketzone
this decline would be a mother of all violations to this harmonics
Many have tried to forecast the oil bottom. It's safer to find places for good shorts unless fundamentals change in my experience.
+1 Reply
themarketzone PRO moorekapital
You can only speculate.. What's your take on Oil?
IvanLabrie PRO themarketzone
The pattern is interesting but I don't rely on them.
I could manipulate the time at mode analysis to focus only on the recent swings and would get a higher target.
Let me add that here, but later, have to go out to eat.
The question is.. if you see Oil falling additional 50% before some pullback? I don't consider the run to 50$ a pullback ..
timwest PRO moorekapital
If the Saudi's and the Venezuelan's keep pumping to keep the money flowing in and if the economy isn't really "lifting off" here (the jobs # could be people taking a 2nd job to make money to buy presents for the holidays), then we could be in for more downside easily. The "MAGNITUDE" of the projected decline isn't important, it's the direction and the duration. That's the beauty of TIME@MODE.
+2 Reply
Ok.. interesting.
TIME@MODE, I'm a staunch believer! Thanks, Sir.
Indeed, just a matter of objective projections, for the traders using this framework.

I agree on the fundamentals, I'm inclined to think we will see a correction in the equities, as well as this slide down in oil.

Here's the more recent swing activity analyzed:


I replied this in the Key Hidden Levels chatroom, on the topic of the price action: "it's a short squeeze
the failure to get follow through
tells me that
weekly engulfed by sellers
daily range exp eaten alive
it's really, really bearish on a bar by bar multi timeframe way"
+1 Reply
timwest PRO IvanLabrie
Two range expansion rallies on the weekly time frame failed to follow through and confirm = failure and very bearish signals. Signs of 'short covering'.
moorekapital IvanLabrie
42.50 would open the flood gate ;)
Nicely done mate :)
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO moneymaking
Just what I do...I can predict things way in the future thanks to Tim's teachings. :)
+1 Reply
moneymaking IvanLabrie
Yeah, Tim is awesome :)
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO moneymaking
Thanks...and yes, so true.

You do some quality work man, really. ;)
+1 Reply
moneymaking IvanLabrie
Hehe, thanks mate, appreciate it :)
So finally the long view on oil has been invalidated, but is it better to stay cautious, according to you, while shorting oil since we are at the very lows, seen after the 2008 crash?
Just my two bits; We are seeing prices we haven't seen much of since '05 but... elevated then by geopolitical tensions and then QE in 2008. After QE1, oil took off to 100, After QE3 ended, oil crashed back to 40. Low 20's definitely in the cards only potentially held back by potential geopolitical tensions. I wouldn't count on production declining much at lower prices, everyone needs revenue which requires even more oil being pumped at lower prices. A spring below 20 would crush the bulls buying at a 20 bargain.
+1 Reply
moneymaking smitheric1970
Amazing explanation mate, greatly helpful. Thank you so much, appreciate it :)
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