Hello everyone, as we see, oil has been falling from years, 2014 was the last time we saw oil at 100$ and it is absurd to think, that oil will remain at 20$ per barrel. I have made 3 possible scenarios. First of all, nobody knows when the bottom is and at what price. When we hit the bottom, only the big players will know that this is the bottom, so we can only try to guess. Even if you buy oil at 20$, this is still an amazing price with lots of space to the upside and limited downside.
1st scenario: (Green arrows), We have formed a tripple bottom, 20$ is a really strong support that we can't manage to stay bellow it. Opec made a deal to cut oil production and maybe, just maybe they could make another meeting to discuss either more cuts or another way of getting the price up. Another things is if America announces that they will open their borders soon or start the economy, this could also get the price up.
2nd scenario: (Red arrow) If we break and manage to hold the price bellow 20$, we would head towards 10$. When the Opec deal happened, the price went down with a few dollars, so even a big cut of production is not enough. If the economy doesn't open soon and the borders remain closed, the demand for oil might go even lower. Right now we don't have any more space to store oil, so the price might infact not recover until we use up all stored oil.
3rd scenario : (Black line) Right now the volume is dead, smart money are waiting on the sidelines. We could see some upside around the holidays and some slight recover of the fall after the opec, but then form head and shoulders and fall to around 10-15$.
All we have to do now is wait and see from this point on if we brake through 20$ again, or we get a good bounce. I think that all 3 scenarios are likely, but if you buy now and hold long-term, you will still make a lot of money. I think another fall is more likely though and the bottom would be around 10$ and it will be around May-June, when America and other countries will open their economies and borders again and this will increase the demand, which right now is really low.
1st scenario: (Green arrows), We have formed a tripple bottom, 20$ is a really strong support that we can't manage to stay bellow it. Opec made a deal to cut oil production and maybe, just maybe they could make another meeting to discuss either more cuts or another way of getting the price up. Another things is if America announces that they will open their borders soon or start the economy, this could also get the price up.
2nd scenario: (Red arrow) If we break and manage to hold the price bellow 20$, we would head towards 10$. When the Opec deal happened, the price went down with a few dollars, so even a big cut of production is not enough. If the economy doesn't open soon and the borders remain closed, the demand for oil might go even lower. Right now we don't have any more space to store oil, so the price might infact not recover until we use up all stored oil.
3rd scenario : (Black line) Right now the volume is dead, smart money are waiting on the sidelines. We could see some upside around the holidays and some slight recover of the fall after the opec, but then form head and shoulders and fall to around 10-15$.
All we have to do now is wait and see from this point on if we brake through 20$ again, or we get a good bounce. I think that all 3 scenarios are likely, but if you buy now and hold long-term, you will still make a lot of money. I think another fall is more likely though and the bottom would be around 10$ and it will be around May-June, when America and other countries will open their economies and borders again and this will increase the demand, which right now is really low.
Comment:
Important triangle, that will decide short-term movement
Trade active:
It broke down, meaning we will continue to fall. Scenario 2 is active at this point.
Trade active:
The triangle reached target, now we are looking for 10$-15$ bottom
Comment:
Trade active:
Good place to buy is 12.20$ and 10.00$ . This is the bottom ladies and gentleman.
Trade closed: target reached:
Good job everyone, enjoy the gains!