Part 2 - Risk-off August - VIX 2H

CBOE:VIX   Volatility S&P 500 Index
Zooming into the 2H chart, the February 2018 VIX spike has been labeled as the 1st leg of an Intermediate Degree bullish ABC formation.

Intermediate (A) (orange) presents a three swings sequence with its Minor ABC (red) sub-waves, in which Minor C (red) is unfolding with an impulsive swing.

Moving into Intermediate (B) (orange) and the corrective patterns, the entire structure has been labeled as a Zig-Zag , with a Leading Diagonal in Minor A (green), an Expanded Flat in Minor B (green) and an Impulse sequence in Minor C (green).

The Correction in Intermediate (B) (orange) seems to have ended, and if this scenario would be correct, then VIX could commence a larger degree rise in an Impulsive sequence.

The rise labeled as Minor 1 (red) exceeded the previous lower-high and this could indicate that an Impulsive sequence could be a possibility. Minor 2 (red) unfolded with a simple ABC (turquoise) correction, showing an Ending Diagonal in its last leg.

Should the VIX be destined to spike once more, it could affect the markets more than the previous one did, as Intermediate (C) (orange) could present an Extension in its Impulse.

Such imminent scenario would be invalidated or delayed only by a decrease below the 11.50 levels, as a wave two cannot surpass the start of a wave one.
Looking back on the previous volatility spike and towards the way this affected the markets, it can be noticed that, during those volatile events, the reactions were divided.

The USD remained stable towards strong, but the YEN was treated by investors as the true safe-haven asset. Metals and EUR lost considerable ground, while global Indices have shown historical one-week drops.

By looking into each market, one would notice some possible patterns and correlations with the February 2018 bears return.
Aug 07
Aug 10

Prepare for:
3500 points drop on DOW30
350 points drop on S&P500
1500 points drop on NAS100
1000 points drop on DAX30
Aug 16
Comment: Correction and then the next bigger wave.
Be ready!
Aug 21
Aug 28
Comment: brrrrrrrr bam bam bap boom bap bapoppppp

ar ya readi?
Sep 05
Sep 06
Sep 24
Comment: Time for the BIG UGLY BEAR!
Sep 28
Comment: It will happen fast, while we'll be asleep.
Be ready for this very bad period!
Oct 11
Comment: Take a good look!

This is who I am and what I do.
Oct 12
Comment: Let them breathe a little, give them a cookie, then the K.O.
Oct 12
Comment: The analysis above was done for my members and traders right before the fear kicked in for the Indices.

This is the present wave count:
Oct 16
Oct 23
Dec 21
Comment: FEAR period still here:
What's your take now?
Is it time? Must be getting close now
+1 Reply
are you still confident on this one ? with the US china trade talk, the very little amount of fear still present on the markets that could have justified the beginning of a drop on US indices is now totally gone. we might have to prepare ourselves for no seasonality correction at all on SPX and DJ maybe after all.
Lionheart-EWA lapin_eliott
@lapin_eliott, Not the time to draw drastic conclusions like this, my view remains intact.
lapin_eliott Lionheart-EWA
@Lionheart-EWA, in my opinion the greediness of markets is such that they will always anticipate good earnings therefore i do not see how the drop can happen before the end of q2 earnings season, when every earnings will be reported we will be already in september.
Lionheart-EWA lapin_eliott
@lapin_eliott, Wave counts on the VIX and on USIndices telll me that the current rise in Indices would be the C leg of the pattern termination. I respect your view but I would like to remain with mine please. You seem to be haunting some of my ideas and making only contradictory comments, this is the third time and it's becoming an inconvenience. I would respectfully ask you not to continue with contact such as this, as you are draining some of my focus. Please, trade how you want and what you see, do not come asking for free tips, you are not a member. I would have gladly helped you more but I just don't see the point, all I see feom you is trolling. Thank you for understanding, I mean no harm with this, just want you to stop, move on, and leave me alone.
Agree .
@Peterson, Thanks.
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