Finding volatility in Labor holiday trading: USDCAD & WTI

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep its rate on hold in its meeting today, so there might not be anything interesting here. Do we think this rate decision is going to make more of an impact on the Aussie than the Australian GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures that are released tomorrow? There has been talk of the Australian dollar being undervalued, so I’m going to keep a cursory eye on the AUD/USD anyhow. $0.6520 seems to be an interesting target to the upside for the pair.

Similarly, the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision later in the week is also supposed to be a dud. But a rate rise from the BoC is not entirely off the table considering the opposition that has come out against it recently, including two Canadian premiers David Eby and Doug Ford. With the interest rate decision potentially not having much impact on the USDCAD, it might be better to look at oil prices.

On Monday, WTI crude oil surged past the $85 per barrel mark, reaching its highest point in more than nine months (currently $85.49). The anticipation of Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ implementing oil production cuts is propelling WTI prices higher.

With oil looking to set new yearly highs, we might like to consider caps on the USDCAD. It recently bounced off $1.3639, coinciding with the surge in oil, so it might not be silly to think of this as the most notable resistance level.