massive amount of div . across multiple time frames on
large long term distribution pattern (megaphone or expanding / diverging )
new ATH on index
parabolic year to date, floundering and failing housing market, unemployment on the up.
Government ran projects at massive high levels (search Keynesian economy vs Simple economy), companies buying back shares across the board (this is my opinion is bad because it shows a lack of sentiment in short to mid term growth ie money not reinvested in staffing, equipment and growth but funneled back to company execs) inverted yield curve over seas, tension between CHINA and USA (trade war) (ref. hang seng HSI and view Australia's economic dependence on China's growth) well over extended period between recessions locally and a historically , parabolic and over bought real estate market has caused Australia to fuel a service and construction boom leaving alot of people with out jobs if things go bad. No jobs + over extended and over inflated property market = mass forced sell offs... The bad times have just began. (IMO)
these are a few of my reasons to be mid term hyper
do what you want
DEFINITELY DO NOT TAKE MY WORD AS GOSPEL ON THIS ONE DYOR!!!
not financial advisor, hard core day trader, chart analyst and punter!
WEEKLY DIV AND DIST. PATTERN
chart pattern and candle structure local top intraday - 4 hr
looks like 3 black crows on the daily :S
Not enough to stop the stem of blood that is about to violently gush from local Securities and property though it is enough to trap some more fools...
Not too sure, in any case I'm more interested in what is happening fundamentally. Technical analysis is good but in my opinion it is good for pin pointing entries and exits and not in the same league as fundamentals in regards to market sentiment.
RBA announced the other day that they were prepared to drop out interest rates to 0% if needed among other ludicrous actions in an attempt to stabilise the Australian Economy. I don't see any of this making much of a difference really. At this point a finishing of the trade dispute between USA and CHINA would create mid term bullish activity (extremely bullish activity) a hyper parabolic run would ensue in my opinion. stay informed on the goings on in our economy but mainly stay up to date with the CHINA and USA currency and trade war.
In the longer term the problems are all still present. If this happened I would still be SHORT long term but i would probably stop my position and ride BULLISH waves to a new much higher SHORT entry.
I would be watching a few tickers in this event. will update. I am also heavy in QAU (Gold ETF) so I would be reconsidering a mid term pullback into gold channel in that scenario.
Anywho at this point it is all just thoughts.
this trade is just heating up looking for a fall and then a nice BULL TRAP and then a complete collapse.
No one said it wouldn't be a wild ride...
a recession always contains a strong 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 structure...
This is what I am forecasting
if we continue trending bearish i will be able to start to deconstruct waves and give daily / weekly predictions
still watching cont. cypher pattern.
Good for our BBOZ positions!
this could be the end of the bullish push back I predicted, I may consider adding to my BBOZ position at the reversals zones indicated below!
Also some bearish div. formed on the 1HR RSI as shown.
all measurements okay, X-D fibonacci has blown out!
we are still safe on our exit but this pattern is debunked!