#5-1 THE MOST ACCURATE GOLD FORECAST IN THE WORLD
WARNING - This is the 11/11/23 CONTINUOUS EVOLVING FORECAST for FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted the following 12-16 hours to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. As of late, forecasts are once/twice per day to be continuously relevant. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully and I do not respond in time, SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively.
SUMMARY - This is the WORKING DRAFT for the 15-min bar 3.5-day generic forecast for overall direction and shape for price action, with detailing for first 28 hours. Continuing from #5 where I flipped the bullish forecast and nailed the move to 1930, the base case for CPI & PPI rally to 2055 has not even moved even noticeably. Strange? Yeah, I am a little uneasy about it. This is working draft because I can't gauge the first 6-8 hours after Sunday open well right now. There are 4 different outcomes so let's play it by ear.
1) With the exception of gap up to 1942-1947 at 6 PM ET (odds roughly 25-33%), the open AND overall strategy should be long to Thursday 6 AM ET.
2) In chart above, bulls are overall 7:3 (55/45 to 85/15) favorite over the skinny blue curve. As long as price is above the BOLD BLUE squiggly line, the blue hi-lights to 2055 is 8:2 to 9:1 vs the rest of the field. So it could simply be regular stair case up. But this is 10% or less.
3) Orange routes are big underdogs here. If bears want to flip the table, they need to push under 1930 the first 150 minutes after Sunday opens. This is about 15%, and that's NOT SMALL for this scenario. It would not be gap down, they would simply take it down after open.
4) The most favored is the bold blue zig-zag arrow. This is 40-55%. And no they don't all add up to even 100.
DETAILS - Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them (especially if you are new to us) occasionally as frame of reference, but most importantly, as evidence that these forecasts help you cash day in and day out. Ask my readers.
IF MY FORECASTS HELP YOU MAKE REAL MONEY - Want more posts, more accuracy, and around the clock updates? Help me out by spreading the word to people you know PERSONALLY. Word of mouth is the best way you can help me make this a thing. The more demand I have for this, the more posts on more tickers I will make. The current rates of followers/readership is really not worth it for me to keep going, but I don't know why I keep trying. If you are that loner anti-social type that don't have friends, well then I guess hit the boost/like button.
SUMMARY - This is the WORKING DRAFT for the 15-min bar 3.5-day generic forecast for overall direction and shape for price action, with detailing for first 28 hours. Continuing from #5 where I flipped the bullish forecast and nailed the move to 1930, the base case for CPI & PPI rally to 2055 has not even moved even noticeably. Strange? Yeah, I am a little uneasy about it. This is working draft because I can't gauge the first 6-8 hours after Sunday open well right now. There are 4 different outcomes so let's play it by ear.
1) With the exception of gap up to 1942-1947 at 6 PM ET (odds roughly 25-33%), the open AND overall strategy should be long to Thursday 6 AM ET.
2) In chart above, bulls are overall 7:3 (55/45 to 85/15) favorite over the skinny blue curve. As long as price is above the BOLD BLUE squiggly line, the blue hi-lights to 2055 is 8:2 to 9:1 vs the rest of the field. So it could simply be regular stair case up. But this is 10% or less.
3) Orange routes are big underdogs here. If bears want to flip the table, they need to push under 1930 the first 150 minutes after Sunday opens. This is about 15%, and that's NOT SMALL for this scenario. It would not be gap down, they would simply take it down after open.
4) The most favored is the bold blue zig-zag arrow. This is 40-55%. And no they don't all add up to even 100.
DETAILS - Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them (especially if you are new to us) occasionally as frame of reference, but most importantly, as evidence that these forecasts help you cash day in and day out. Ask my readers.
IF MY FORECASTS HELP YOU MAKE REAL MONEY - Want more posts, more accuracy, and around the clock updates? Help me out by spreading the word to people you know PERSONALLY. Word of mouth is the best way you can help me make this a thing. The more demand I have for this, the more posts on more tickers I will make. The current rates of followers/readership is really not worth it for me to keep going, but I don't know why I keep trying. If you are that loner anti-social type that don't have friends, well then I guess hit the boost/like button.
Comment:
1:31 AM ET - SO THE PLAN IS;
1) I will be live for all of Sunday night to early Monday morning
2) w/in 2 hours after the open, I will put up notes for where we will be at, at that time
3) it might not even do any thing for first 3-4 hours
4) if you've even read my posts for a week, the chart at top is not meant to hit perfect perfect
5) it's meant to illustrate/handicap strong/weak outcomes
6) in that way, you can be "ready for everything"
7) and if I'm in front of a screen, I will comment on every time you have reason to be suspicious
1) I will be live for all of Sunday night to early Monday morning
2) w/in 2 hours after the open, I will put up notes for where we will be at, at that time
3) it might not even do any thing for first 3-4 hours
4) if you've even read my posts for a week, the chart at top is not meant to hit perfect perfect
5) it's meant to illustrate/handicap strong/weak outcomes
6) in that way, you can be "ready for everything"
7) and if I'm in front of a screen, I will comment on every time you have reason to be suspicious
Comment:
1:53 PM ET 11/11 SATURDAY. Small bars editing produced this:
Comment:
a) for chart above: I made the original blue zig zag spike skinny bc bears still a case "for one more low"
b) 1920-something, 23? 25? not sure...
c) will look closer later
d) but any lower than that ... it starts looking like bear route... in fact here's some boxes made 11/07 still hitting for bears for whatever reason:
e)
b) 1920-something, 23? 25? not sure...
c) will look closer later
d) but any lower than that ... it starts looking like bear route... in fact here's some boxes made 11/07 still hitting for bears for whatever reason:
e)
Comment:
e)... this was planning for a "sideways scenario"
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f) so this week's move has this effect on our JANUARY 10 - MARCH 8 PLANS that I've been bring up every week now:
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g) before I forget, from Sunday open to 2, 3 AM ET Monday,
h) this will get decided:
h) this will get decided:
Comment:
i) so I move "the spike" top from 1 AM-ish to 9 AM-ish
j) but those are odds I see as fair... we don't know until we know
k) chart above is the comparison of what SHOULD happen as a result of an early spike AND HOLD...
l) bc we get into if it spike early and reverses again blah blah... just too much
m) again, I will be live that window, and most of the entire week next week too
n) just remember THE NOTES ARE EVERYTHING
j) but those are odds I see as fair... we don't know until we know
k) chart above is the comparison of what SHOULD happen as a result of an early spike AND HOLD...
l) bc we get into if it spike early and reverses again blah blah... just too much
m) again, I will be live that window, and most of the entire week next week too
n) just remember THE NOTES ARE EVERYTHING
Comment:
11//11 5:02 PM THESE CHARTS CONCERN SUNDAY OPEN, 6 PM ET TO MON 10 AM ET:
1) this is how you make these 2 lines:
1) this is how you make these 2 lines:
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2) add these four
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3) here's 4-min bars with a one more line, the bold trend line here that is the gate keeper for Sunday open into Monday:
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4) for chart above, the original blue spike is now VERY LIGHT BLUE
5) the last one added is now LIGHT BLUE
6) the newest is DARK BLUE
7) see where the zig zags occur most?
8) ALL at trend lines...
9) you would think that I have those on and make the zig zags
10) I use regression waves to predict path, which PLACES THE ZIGS ZAGS THERE TO BEGIN WITH
11) then I go in with the lines to to clean it up
12) there will ONE MORE CHART LATER
13) it will be 4-min bar with FINAL hi-light for the next 16 hours
14) this will be the chart you USE TO TRADE THIS TIME FRAME
15) that's a wrap
5) the last one added is now LIGHT BLUE
6) the newest is DARK BLUE
7) see where the zig zags occur most?
8) ALL at trend lines...
9) you would think that I have those on and make the zig zags
10) I use regression waves to predict path, which PLACES THE ZIGS ZAGS THERE TO BEGIN WITH
11) then I go in with the lines to to clean it up
12) there will ONE MORE CHART LATER
13) it will be 4-min bar with FINAL hi-light for the next 16 hours
14) this will be the chart you USE TO TRADE THIS TIME FRAME
15) that's a wrap
Comment:
16) notice why the bold black trend line should be the most important here
17) regression mapping is saying IT WON'T BREAK UNTIL 11PM-1AM ET
18)) meaning ONE OR TWO MORE LOWS BEFORE THE FINAL SPIKE UP
19) looking like 1930 and 1926
17) regression mapping is saying IT WON'T BREAK UNTIL 11PM-1AM ET
18)) meaning ONE OR TWO MORE LOWS BEFORE THE FINAL SPIKE UP
19) looking like 1930 and 1926
Comment:
20) 6:50 PM ET - so the complete 4-min bar version:
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2) 7:23 PM ET - now complete with four different scenarios DESCRIBED ABOVE:
Comment:
11/11, 10:58 PM ET -- so the orange route in the chart above:
a) is what bears have to do tomorrow to keep bear thesis alive
b) move to 1923, dead cat bounce to kiss of death at 1932
c) then go to 1916 searching for a route to 1885
d) if bears hold the bold black trend line PAST 1 AM ET
e) they WOULD THEN be favored for 1916
f) if they CANNOT HOLD THAT LINE, then it's over for bear thesis
g) run away momentum will take us to 2055 this Thursday
a) is what bears have to do tomorrow to keep bear thesis alive
b) move to 1923, dead cat bounce to kiss of death at 1932
c) then go to 1916 searching for a route to 1885
d) if bears hold the bold black trend line PAST 1 AM ET
e) they WOULD THEN be favored for 1916
f) if they CANNOT HOLD THAT LINE, then it's over for bear thesis
g) run away momentum will take us to 2055 this Thursday
Comment:
11/12 3:15 AM ET -- I'm going to do things differently now.
a) and it should've been this way the whole time
b) bc I realized this several times now but still making the the same mental mistake
c) my forecasts imply that I have a bullish bias here
d) why? bc I not doing enough bear extrapolations
e) part of me assumes that line will break
f) so the time I put into bull-casting is 80/20 or 70/30
g) it's not cost effective time-wise
h) bc if it takes orange route, all of sudden I have to scramble and run ratios which takes too long to adjust to a changing environment
i) so then?
k) more short term forecasting less medium term stuff
l) bc we don't know until we know, so it's like a waste of time anyway
a) and it should've been this way the whole time
b) bc I realized this several times now but still making the the same mental mistake
c) my forecasts imply that I have a bullish bias here
d) why? bc I not doing enough bear extrapolations
e) part of me assumes that line will break
f) so the time I put into bull-casting is 80/20 or 70/30
g) it's not cost effective time-wise
h) bc if it takes orange route, all of sudden I have to scramble and run ratios which takes too long to adjust to a changing environment
i) so then?
k) more short term forecasting less medium term stuff
l) bc we don't know until we know, so it's like a waste of time anyway
Comment:
11//12, Sunday 9:45 AM
a) let's start with the right above I posted at 7:23 PM ET
b) again... I am am assuming that that line will break ....
c) if it holds past 1 AM Monday, bears are favored
d) favored to close that gap at 1832 pushing 1810
e) and the move is a mirror image
a) let's start with the right above I posted at 7:23 PM ET
b) again... I am am assuming that that line will break ....
c) if it holds past 1 AM Monday, bears are favored
d) favored to close that gap at 1832 pushing 1810
e) and the move is a mirror image
Comment:
11/12, Sunday 10:19 AM ET, BEARS HAVE TO BE FAVORED UNTIL BULLS MAKE THAT SPIKE
a) that's the correct call
b) so here"s the 3 lines for bears:
a) that's the correct call
b) so here"s the 3 lines for bears:
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c) smaller bar:
Comment:
d) case closed...
e) at the op, I started the SUMMARY by saying this is a WORKING DRAFT
f) primarily bc I haven't covered all of it
g) so #5-1 IS DONE, #5-2 will be up in 30 minutes or less
e) at the op, I started the SUMMARY by saying this is a WORKING DRAFT
f) primarily bc I haven't covered all of it
g) so #5-1 IS DONE, #5-2 will be up in 30 minutes or less
Comment:
AND HERE IS #5-2:
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Related Ideas
a) the strategy would be wait until it closes the gap at 1935-1938 and go long
b) again assuming a "regular gap"
c) this of course goes out the window if Iran does something crazy and the headlines all run with it
d) can you call gap up scenario ?
e) yeah, accurately too as I did during Israel-Hamas weekend
f) I called 1845 gap up w/ 1855 ceiling, it was 1846 gap up and 1855 before reversing
g) evidence in this post:
h) from post above, 2/3 down the page marked "10/08 12:21 PM - NOTES OF A SETTLING MIND:"
>> 8) Israel just declared war on Hamas, and by extension, its financiers in Hezbolla/Tehran
>>9) that maybe worth 1845 gap up at open in less than six hours
>>10) Monday is a bank holiday in U.S., but the market is still open with 1855 ceiling and...
i) but odds that time was considerably high
j) if something MAJOR happens this weekend, then it would 1953 gap up, 1965 FIRST CEIILING...
k) but until there is major news, odds of of gap up here is 25-33% at 1945 and would get filled the first hour