#5-3 THE MOST ACCURATE GOLD FORECAST IN THE WORLD
SUMMARY - This is the 11/13/23, 15-min bar and 48-hour generic, CONTINUOUS EVOLVING FORECAST for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker, with detailing for first 24 hours. This is the follow up to #5-2.
WARNING - As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted the following 12-16 hours to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. As of late, forecasts are once/twice per day to be continuously relevant. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully and I do not respond in time, SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively.
HOW TO USE - Blues are strong bull routes. Oranges are strong bear routes (none this time). The darker the color, the more likely price action will take that path.
DETAILS - Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them (especially if you are new to us) occasionally as frame of reference, but most importantly, as evidence that these forecasts help you cash day in and day out. Ask my readers.
IF MY FORECASTS HELP YOU MAKE REAL MONEY - Want more posts, more accuracy, and around the clock updates? Help me out by spreading the word to people you know PERSONALLY. Word of mouth is the best way you can help me make this a thing. The more demand I have for this, the more posts on more tickers I will make. The current rates of followers/readership is really not worth it for me to keep going, but I don't know why I keep trying. If you are that loner type that ignore friends, well then I guess hit the boost/like button.
WARNING - As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted the following 12-16 hours to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. As of late, forecasts are once/twice per day to be continuously relevant. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully and I do not respond in time, SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively.
HOW TO USE - Blues are strong bull routes. Oranges are strong bear routes (none this time). The darker the color, the more likely price action will take that path.
DETAILS - Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them (especially if you are new to us) occasionally as frame of reference, but most importantly, as evidence that these forecasts help you cash day in and day out. Ask my readers.
IF MY FORECASTS HELP YOU MAKE REAL MONEY - Want more posts, more accuracy, and around the clock updates? Help me out by spreading the word to people you know PERSONALLY. Word of mouth is the best way you can help me make this a thing. The more demand I have for this, the more posts on more tickers I will make. The current rates of followers/readership is really not worth it for me to keep going, but I don't know why I keep trying. If you are that loner type that ignore friends, well then I guess hit the boost/like button.
Comment:
11:04 PM, 1967.05
a) popping...
b) no doubt can hit 1971, 75, 80, 85, maybe more, I mean now:
a) popping...
b) no doubt can hit 1971, 75, 80, 85, maybe more, I mean now:
Comment:
c) 11:10 PM, 65:35, so roughly 2:1
d) bc ultimately still don't know if it gets rejected at '71
e) but odds NOW FAVOR a break AND a move to '85
f) trying to find out if that favors higher, too early to tell
d) bc ultimately still don't know if it gets rejected at '71
e) but odds NOW FAVOR a break AND a move to '85
f) trying to find out if that favors higher, too early to tell
Comment:
11:40 PM ET... I'M GOING TO BED, I KNOW EARLY FOR ME.
g) but first here is base case:
g) but first here is base case:
Comment:
Comment:
h) for chart above, so for the next 9 hours, this is base case
i) as long as price stays above BOLD BLUE OUTLINE
j) it is expected to hit 1975, '85, '95 in succession
i) as long as price stays above BOLD BLUE OUTLINE
j) it is expected to hit 1975, '85, '95 in succession
Comment:
k) when?
l) before 5:45 AM
m) why? because that leaves room for blue wave to check down at its bollinger median
n) which will then be 1975
o) RIGHT BEFORE PPI AND SWING UP BACK UP
p) then getting rejected
q) then BULL FLAG UP not triangle up
l) before 5:45 AM
m) why? because that leaves room for blue wave to check down at its bollinger median
n) which will then be 1975
o) RIGHT BEFORE PPI AND SWING UP BACK UP
p) then getting rejected
q) then BULL FLAG UP not triangle up
Comment:
r) no i meant BULL PENNANT UP like this:
Comment:
s) 10 hours ago, I had thought it would follow this curve:
Comment:
t) leaving it so close BEFORE PPI to move is TOO OBVIOUS A SHORT
u) unless it's' '95', '75, then all the way up
v) so what does it take to disprove it it?
1) 6-minute bar stick save
2) meaning it can spend about 3 minutes (and only about 1.5 pts under bold blue outline) ...
3) before reversing back up immediately to hold curve
4) can only dip twice...
5) THIRD TIME IS SUSPCIIOUS AF
6) all this means STOPS TIGHT A!
u) unless it's' '95', '75, then all the way up
v) so what does it take to disprove it it?
1) 6-minute bar stick save
2) meaning it can spend about 3 minutes (and only about 1.5 pts under bold blue outline) ...
3) before reversing back up immediately to hold curve
4) can only dip twice...
5) THIRD TIME IS SUSPCIIOUS AF
6) all this means STOPS TIGHT A!
Comment:
w) example:
Comment:
1) that's ok
2) haven't reach orange area yet
3) it can dip in 3 minutes, so 3 1-min bar
4) on the 4th bar it must start back up to hold trend
2) haven't reach orange area yet
3) it can dip in 3 minutes, so 3 1-min bar
4) on the 4th bar it must start back up to hold trend
Comment:
5) remember, normal rules ALWAYS APPLY
6) if you see 2 declining tops on the way up.... it's probably going to give up
7) like this
8) good night and happy hunting
6) if you see 2 declining tops on the way up.... it's probably going to give up
7) like this
Comment:
9) great example: like this
Comment:
Comment:
12:28 AM 1966.XX it's over it's gonna stair case
Comment:
Comment:
... just higher like this:
Comment:
Comment:
1:13 AM, higher again, but not explosive.
Comment:
Comment:
a) for chart above
c) that's roughly 24-25 hours from now
c) that's roughly 24-25 hours from now
Comment:
d) what happen to b)?
e) typo, so it's almost 1971 as I type that's 64 up...
f) I would start moving to the door close to 2030
g) if you don't have 5, 10, 15-sec bars...
h) anything above 2030 looks like it's gonna get hit quick
i) '45 and '55 w/in 7 trading days
j) but not without sizable checkdowns in between
e) typo, so it's almost 1971 as I type that's 64 up...
f) I would start moving to the door close to 2030
g) if you don't have 5, 10, 15-sec bars...
h) anything above 2030 looks like it's gonna get hit quick
i) '45 and '55 w/in 7 trading days
j) but not without sizable checkdowns in between
Comment:
2:30 AM ET 1972.XX, the issue is what high before 2-way vol for PPI...
a) RIGHT NOW...
b) '75 is likely
c) '78 is 50/50
d) '85 is 20/80
a) RIGHT NOW...
b) '75 is likely
c) '78 is 50/50
d) '85 is 20/80
Comment:
e) typo. 3:30 AM ET, not 2:30
Comment:
4:00 AM 1971.XX
a) '75 is 50/50
b) '78 is 30/'70
a) '75 is 50/50
b) '78 is 30/'70
Comment:
4:47 AM
a) check down floor is '58-'60 if that low
b) but celing keeps dropping for Wednesdayy
c) high has moved to Thursday before 9 AM now 2030
a) check down floor is '58-'60 if that low
b) but celing keeps dropping for Wednesdayy
c) high has moved to Thursday before 9 AM now 2030
Comment:
8:37 AM ET..1965 HAS TO HOLD...
A) UNDER THAT...
B) CANCEL EVERYTHING
C) and wait...
A) UNDER THAT...
B) CANCEL EVERYTHING
C) and wait...
Comment:
Comment:
D) now it is A SHORT W/ A STOP AT 1965
1) targets would '55, '40, and 1930
2) that's what the math says
1) targets would '55, '40, and 1930
2) that's what the math says
Comment:
3) 8:48, 1965.xx AFTER '63.XX, just wait it out...
4) you can't do anything smart here if it's one way
4) you can't do anything smart here if it's one way
Comment:
5) literally cannot tell what it wants to do
Comment:
6) 2-way straddle if you have options with 1966 stop for bears and 1964 stop for bulls
7) bout the only way ... bc the VOL is there w/in 48 hours you either are bove 2000 or under 1930 in theory, not sure if that's enough room if your options are long term...
7) bout the only way ... bc the VOL is there w/in 48 hours you either are bove 2000 or under 1930 in theory, not sure if that's enough room if your options are long term...
Comment:
8) it's not knowable right now (8:55 AM ET)
9) bc) the wavve position vs. bollingers determine what's possible
10) and both things are possible
9) bc) the wavve position vs. bollingers determine what's possible
10) and both things are possible
Comment:
11) 8:59 AM ET, just WAIT IT OUT...
12) it will be obvious after wards
13) don't need to be risking when you don't konw
12) it will be obvious after wards
13) don't need to be risking when you don't konw
Comment:
14) break this again and bears have to have the edge here
Comment:
9:13 AM ET... it's full on short now at 1963.xx STOP AT '65
Comment:
a) 1950 is easy
Comment:
b) it's 9:23 AM and 1963.xx
c) first trail your stops
d) second first target is 1950
e) how fast that gets hit determines if we have a shot for 1943
f) why? bc the limit for the bollingers is 1950 right now BUT THAT CHANGES if the drop is FAS ENOUGH
g) if it isn't ... I have to see it to announce it.
c) first trail your stops
d) second first target is 1950
e) how fast that gets hit determines if we have a shot for 1943
f) why? bc the limit for the bollingers is 1950 right now BUT THAT CHANGES if the drop is FAS ENOUGH
g) if it isn't ... I have to see it to announce it.
Comment:
h) 1962.xx at 10:42 AM ET
i) see? not that quick.. the longer it takes, IT TAKES LONGER!
j) so 1950 is going to get hit
k) if it moves early so let's say by noon ET...
l) then we have a shot at 1943...
m) that doesn't mean we are favored to...
n) it just means the faster we get to 1950 the odds increase for 1943..
o) under that? I can't see it right now
i) see? not that quick.. the longer it takes, IT TAKES LONGER!
j) so 1950 is going to get hit
k) if it moves early so let's say by noon ET...
l) then we have a shot at 1943...
m) that doesn't mean we are favored to...
n) it just means the faster we get to 1950 the odds increase for 1943..
o) under that? I can't see it right now
Comment:
9:53 AM, finally some movement to '55.xx
p) for those joining us now, please understand that the top chart is just what I see posssible AT THAT TIME...
q) a couple people asked me.. what happened to 1995?
r) well we DIDN'T KNOW THAT until we saw reaction at 65.xx
s) but as I always say, the notes I post ARE EVERYTHING...
t) bc stuff CHANGES ALL THE TIME...
u) but I'm going to let you know ahead of it...
p) for those joining us now, please understand that the top chart is just what I see posssible AT THAT TIME...
q) a couple people asked me.. what happened to 1995?
r) well we DIDN'T KNOW THAT until we saw reaction at 65.xx
s) but as I always say, the notes I post ARE EVERYTHING...
t) bc stuff CHANGES ALL THE TIME...
u) but I'm going to let you know ahead of it...
Comment:
v) 9:58, I can see 1948 now
Comment:
w) what can be said about our situation now?
x) remember what I said I hate... STAIR CASING SIDEWAYS MARKET....
y) I can't see a strong set up now w/ one caveat
1) it has to SLICE THROUGH 1943 and move for 1930/1928 today
2) why? bc the waves can "readjust for bear thesis"
3) but I just don't see it w/ it being 1958 as I type...
4) other wise, expectations should be...
5) weak bounce at '43 even weaker retrace, like not worth posting about type stuff
x) remember what I said I hate... STAIR CASING SIDEWAYS MARKET....
y) I can't see a strong set up now w/ one caveat
1) it has to SLICE THROUGH 1943 and move for 1930/1928 today
2) why? bc the waves can "readjust for bear thesis"
3) but I just don't see it w/ it being 1958 as I type...
4) other wise, expectations should be...
5) weak bounce at '43 even weaker retrace, like not worth posting about type stuff
Comment:
10:31 1961.xx I'm out of patience today...
a) 9/8 rato on my IRL... makes me want to throw up...
b) I mean absolutely disagreeing WITH ANY THESIS YOU PUT UP...
c) I could quit gold in a few weeks if this keeps up
a) 9/8 rato on my IRL... makes me want to throw up...
b) I mean absolutely disagreeing WITH ANY THESIS YOU PUT UP...
c) I could quit gold in a few weeks if this keeps up
Comment:
d) not to be vague, but 9/8 ratio which for regression indicator is how I built my trend engine... it's specific to gold price history...
e) and it makes me want start posting ES/SPX, I just hate bitccoin
e) and it makes me want start posting ES/SPX, I just hate bitccoin
Comment:
f) 10:48 AM ET 1962.xx can't even see when the second leg down should be now...
g) you wait, and not get an opportunity
h) SO THIS POST HAS ENDED UNTIL SOMETHING BETTER COMES OUR WAY
g) you wait, and not get an opportunity
h) SO THIS POST HAS ENDED UNTIL SOMETHING BETTER COMES OUR WAY
Comment:
i) I meant that you CAN wait, and still not get a good opportunity
j) I make that call based on what the short term waves say
j) I make that call based on what the short term waves say
Comment:
k) 10:51 AM becareful if gets ABOVE '66 AND HOLDS IT.. crazier stuff has happened
l) odds are low of all the way back up NOW...
m) but THE WINDOW HAS NOT CLOSED FOR THAT... 2-3 hours or something
l) odds are low of all the way back up NOW...
m) but THE WINDOW HAS NOT CLOSED FOR THAT... 2-3 hours or something
Comment:
n) 11:18 AM '61.87 possibility of second leg here to '50, the rest look like later tonight
Comment:
o) 11:32 AM ET, bears have a window to change trend... but they have to make it stick TODAY, by moving to 48/43 by the close
p) if not? this is it:
p) if not? this is it:
Comment:
q) regresion count is favoring bulls only bc it's slower than price
r) so I this thing is like 55/45 bear but easily move to 60/40 bulls favor if bulls put the floor in now 1961 or 1960
s) so sideways city hoping for a big trend to show up
r) so I this thing is like 55/45 bear but easily move to 60/40 bulls favor if bulls put the floor in now 1961 or 1960
s) so sideways city hoping for a big trend to show up
Comment:
t) 12:46 pm ET the bear window is still open BUT BEARS GOTTA BREAK IT UNDER NOW!
Comment:
u) there's just enough time for this setup to play
v) why does this matter?
w) bc it will us something late Thursday/Friday to trade for
x) while the bull route is mirror image...
y) the odds ARE NOT THE SAME
v) why does this matter?
w) bc it will us something late Thursday/Friday to trade for
x) while the bull route is mirror image...
y) the odds ARE NOT THE SAME
Comment:
1:06 PM STILL LIVE, but anoying AF:
Comment:
1:35 STILL LIVE:
Comment:
a) we are better than 2:1 RIGHT NOW to make '50
b) can we do '43???
b) can we do '43???
Comment:
c) let's get '50 first
Comment:
d) btw, that orange hi-light is just generic, NOT PREDICTIVE
Comment:
1:55, 60.57, bears have to smash it down right here, IF NOT IT'S A COIN FLIP
a) and not worth our time any more
b) need to make to 'in minutes to prevent trend change
a) and not worth our time any more
b) need to make to 'in minutes to prevent trend change
Comment:
2:09, it's over for today
Comment:
3:14 OMG... MANIPULATED CURVE COMING!
Comment:
4:30 PM ET: THIS POST HAS CLOSED, HERE IS #5-4:
Related Ideas
a) so I think
b) you can always find them in #5-2