OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar

hey traders,

on Thursday gold has broken above a major trendline .
on Friday we saw a very strong buying reaction and test of 1515 level.
1515 level is very peculiar for us because it is the major structure resistance level.
Indeed, during the US session, we saw a very strong selling reaction from this level.

For next week we have two equally possible scenarios:
1 - Market participants will start buying the retest of the broken trendline
and we will see the second test of 1515 level
2 - The breakout of the trendline will turn to a fake one
and we will see a bearish continuation to major support of a current wide horizontal range.

though two options are equally possible,
my spidey senses encourage me to the second option!

let's see how it goes and have a great weekend!)
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It's very simple man.. charts can't predict stuff. Oct 30th you will see the GDP # and then it will go one way or another.. simple as that.
Until then, it will probably just hover around as traders wonder if they should keep gold or sell ahead of GDP.

Likely GDP will be worse or equal to expected which I believe is 1.4%, and that's not a great number!! Gold will hang on or go up slightly, while the DOW retreats a bit. Then, everything will starts to get undone again as usual with all the pumping going on, and by end of next Nov, same thing will repeat. In Nov we may see another small decrease in the GDP yet again, and again see gold up, then by Mid Dec retail #'s will either make or break gold.. if we get two consecutive retreating GDP #'s and a bad retail #, there will be a huge break of some sort mid Dec.
+2 Reply
otterslide otterslide
@otterslide, "US Retail Sales Post Biggest Drop in 7 Months US retail trade fell 0.3 percent from a month earlier in September 2019, after an upwardly revised 0.6 percent gain in August and missing market expectations of a 0.3 percent increase. It was the first and biggest decline in retail trade since February, mainly due to lower sales at motor vehicles, building materials, hobbies and online purchases."
Watch for 3 consecutive drops, this is why I say.. mid December. And this is not to the downside of gold! If Oct sales go below Sep, Nov # shouldn't be a surprise.. We haven't had three consecutive worsening sales for 10 years. Anyway.. I would recommend you go by the numbers instead of senses.. because the trend is that numbers are weakening.. And gold at 1500 is the result and proof of that. There's no way it would be at 1500 if those numbers weren't weakening.
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otterslide otterslide
@otterslide, Here are the wall street survey #'s: https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/201910258364/gdp-growth-expected-to-slow-in-3q-data-week-ahead Real GDP (1st Reading) 3Q +1.6% (15) . They expect 1.6% for Wednesday. The true expectation is 1.9% .. Some expect 1.4% that I found.. Why not buy some AAPL if you are bearish on gold? The DOW chart has a decision to make as well.
"The CFO Optimism Index, which historically has been an accurate predictor of hiring and GDP growth, fell this quarter. Fifty-five percent of CFOs have become more pessimistic compared to the 2nd quarter this year, far outnumbering the 12 percent who say they have become more optimistic." https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/duke-fuqua-insights/cfo-survey-q3-2019
Reply
shahab_kd otterslide
@otterslide, Just Great
Reply
otterslide shahab_kd
@shahab_kd, Nothing great about it if GDP falls. But that's what gold is for. Also don't forget the bank to bank lending freezing up on the Repo market. Fed is lowering rates and pumping cash.. buying assets other banks won't touch.. that should be positive for gold. Last time repo froze up was 08.
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otterslide shahab_kd
@shahab_kd, I almost forgot about the rate cut at 2PM on Wednesday following GDP.. "Moreover, Fed Fund futures reflect a greater than 90% probability for another 25bp reduction on October 30, " ..
Reply
shahab_kd otterslide
@otterslide, personally , i believe this rate cut will effect usd more than before
this is exactly what donal trump wants and more things that you mentioned correctly
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otterslide shahab_kd
@shahab_kd, You got your wishes.. to a small degree!.. Let's see if it keeps going though. Lots of experts predicting the USD will strengthen, as other currencies weaken relative to it. In the 08 crash it was all downhill until 11, but it was only the US affected. If other countries slip into recession we may see the USD increase .. and that's all I'm hearing everywhere. Stronger dollar to come.
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shahab_kd otterslide
@otterslide, yeah , got my wishes :D
Technically , I love Gold to predict further movement of USD , and i personally believe , after this beautiful uptrend in short term , we have to wait for a downtrend which is strengthening the USD , Because we have Bearish spike from 25 oct. to 29 Oct. and after that we are having Bullish retracement
So , i'm agree with having more strong Dollar in Future .
Reply
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