MQP 19A THIS IS THE TRADE
HEADER - The trade here is short at B about 1920-ish (Tues-Wed 5/10-5/11). Close at C 1780 or less (Friday 5/13).
SUMMARY - The slide this morning was expected, but not under 1880. See 18D link below. This situation INSTANTLY makes this move to 1780 55% vs all other outcomes.
DETAILS - I gotta run right now, so no time. Get trading funds ready for this short. We are going to make some dough next week. The way to change this out come IS TO MOVE ABOVE 1920 AND STAY THERE FOR 48-72 hours (through next Tuesday morning). ODDS HIGHLY FAVOR THIS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN NOW. Therefore, by default, this is 55% vs field as it stands, increasing 4% per day from now to next WED. So it would be 70%+ vs field by noon next Wednesday.
SUMMARY - The slide this morning was expected, but not under 1880. See 18D link below. This situation INSTANTLY makes this move to 1780 55% vs all other outcomes.
DETAILS - I gotta run right now, so no time. Get trading funds ready for this short. We are going to make some dough next week. The way to change this out come IS TO MOVE ABOVE 1920 AND STAY THERE FOR 48-72 hours (through next Tuesday morning). ODDS HIGHLY FAVOR THIS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN NOW. Therefore, by default, this is 55% vs field as it stands, increasing 4% per day from now to next WED. So it would be 70%+ vs field by noon next Wednesday.
Comment:
7. The entry is projected to be midnight of 5.10 to 5.11.
8. So again 23 hour futures is where u need to be.
8. So again 23 hour futures is where u need to be.
Comment:
7:40 PM ET There is one more outcome.
1. The 5/12-5/13 low is 1835.
2. 2100 on 5/26-5/27.
3. This is the one that fits the best.
4. But I can't disprove 1780 or lower.
5. How do we know which?
6. How quickly it drops on 5-11 and 5-12 will decide if we get hard swing up by 5/27.
1. The 5/12-5/13 low is 1835.
2. 2100 on 5/26-5/27.
3. This is the one that fits the best.
4. But I can't disprove 1780 or lower.
5. How do we know which?
6. How quickly it drops on 5-11 and 5-12 will decide if we get hard swing up by 5/27.
Comment:
saturday 5/7 12:25 PM ET
1. this idea is closed, whether or not it continues to play
2. my focus is all on on 20A
3. there's 15 trading days to the top of a 300 swing
4. I can't justify a short in this situation
1. this idea is closed, whether or not it continues to play
2. my focus is all on on 20A
3. there's 15 trading days to the top of a 300 swing
4. I can't justify a short in this situation
1. there's 2 more relative highs coming at A and B
2. entry is B 5/10-5-11
3. gray boxes MAY NOT HIT
4. confidence in this move very high right now
5. as always, things can always change
6. as of 1:40 pm ET 5/5, I have every reason to expect this is the outcome