01/24 RALLY 2280-2360 EXECUTION PART 2
WARNINGS FOR PEOPLE THAT ALWAYS NEED THEM - As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement - NOT REPLACE - your trading discipline and risk management. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully and I do not respond in time, JUST SCRAP THE FORECAST AND TRADE DEFENSIVELY. As before, remember that there is AN ACTUAL LIMIT on how many updates I can post. Furthermore, I am only posting this for my regular audience only, who want them and know what to do with them. I am not here to hold your hand and walk you through this. If you haven't read my work for three months, I repeat, this is REALLY not for you. Are we clear?
SUMMARY - This is the 01/06/24, daily binary, 15-min bar, 120-hour generic, 48-hour ultra detailed, CONTINUOUS & EVOLVING FORECAST for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. Continuing from PART 1, this type of forecast I will publish once or twice daily to end of January when the overall rally and correction pattern will complete. I am publishing these to manage expectations for the 01/24 RALLY to 2280-2360 as a whole. If you use them any other way, that is on you.
DETAILS - You need to read PART 1 for background first to understand where we are, so link is below in links section. In chart at top, the first box is ENTRY BOX. Current odds favor 2035 check down Monday morning, testing resistance Monday night. After rejection the on the first attempt, a break out Tuesday morning and 2085 Tuesday night, with a push for 2100 before NY opens Wednesday. So second box is probably high for first of three leg. I say that because it can push higher, but probably not much higher before checking down to the third box, the LEVERAGE ENTRY BOX. While it's ok to be early and more bullish then blue route, IT IS NOT OK TO BE more than a few points or a few hours late. In that scenario, tighten up stops and wait it out. I should respond with something in 12 hours or less.
SUMMARY - This is the 01/06/24, daily binary, 15-min bar, 120-hour generic, 48-hour ultra detailed, CONTINUOUS & EVOLVING FORECAST for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. Continuing from PART 1, this type of forecast I will publish once or twice daily to end of January when the overall rally and correction pattern will complete. I am publishing these to manage expectations for the 01/24 RALLY to 2280-2360 as a whole. If you use them any other way, that is on you.
DETAILS - You need to read PART 1 for background first to understand where we are, so link is below in links section. In chart at top, the first box is ENTRY BOX. Current odds favor 2035 check down Monday morning, testing resistance Monday night. After rejection the on the first attempt, a break out Tuesday morning and 2085 Tuesday night, with a push for 2100 before NY opens Wednesday. So second box is probably high for first of three leg. I say that because it can push higher, but probably not much higher before checking down to the third box, the LEVERAGE ENTRY BOX. While it's ok to be early and more bullish then blue route, IT IS NOT OK TO BE more than a few points or a few hours late. In that scenario, tighten up stops and wait it out. I should respond with something in 12 hours or less.
Comment:
THIS PART IS OBVIOUS - I've said for 20 months that it would be 01/10-03/08 this year. Today is the 6th and Monday is the 8th. Math says check down Tuesday PM and all of Wednesday. If you are defensive , just wait until Wednesday night. You're not going to miss much anyway. The leverage date was always the 10th or 11th. That has never moved.
Comment:
THE PART THAT STILL NOT OBVIOUS - I've used my intermediate regression model to search for this break out path for 01/10-03/08. I started 12/20 to make sure we don't miss "an early move" because the theory says it's a giant move and, honestly, what if the cycle models are a week or two off? Counting the two holidays, that's only 8 trading days. Wouldn't surprise me. This intermediate regression model, WILL NAIL THE SHAPE OF THE MOVE INSIDE A SPECIFIC WINDOW. The one "error that can't be fixed" is that it assumes THAT THERE WILL BE A MOVE. Does that make sense? The adjustment from 7 year to 56 cycles will move price action "price wise" but necessarily that much time wise because it is a a base 2 cycle model, meaning 7 X 2 x 2 x 2 = 56. There's some variation involved in that, BUT WE HAVE NO MORE TIME LEFT. So in English that means this:
1) the chart at top is the most likely route
2) if it misses Monday the 8th, I have to reconfirm that the shift to Tuesday work
3) it is the second most likely route but odds significant lower than Monday (bc the trend are not as "in position" as Monday
4) Tuesday is the 9th
5) I don't have a route for a shift to the Wednesday the 10th because all models show Wednesday as the low for a "leveraged entry"
6) so by morning of the 11th we will have irrefutable proof that we have a bull market OR
7) and incoming liquidity event collapse
1) the chart at top is the most likely route
2) if it misses Monday the 8th, I have to reconfirm that the shift to Tuesday work
3) it is the second most likely route but odds significant lower than Monday (bc the trend are not as "in position" as Monday
4) Tuesday is the 9th
5) I don't have a route for a shift to the Wednesday the 10th because all models show Wednesday as the low for a "leveraged entry"
6) so by morning of the 11th we will have irrefutable proof that we have a bull market OR
7) and incoming liquidity event collapse
Comment:
8) that liquidity event collapse scenario DID NOT EXIST on Tues 01/02
9) went from zero to "massive underdog" on 01/03
10) "still a pretty big underdog but not impossible" yesterday
11) ) if we miss the move on Monday 01/08, EVEN IF IT STAYS ABOVE 2040 ...
12) that become a "a big underdog, but possible"
13) if we make the move on Tuesday, WE STILL NEED CONFIRMATION EVERYTHING IS OK
14) to watch for "dead cat bounce" blind spots and make sure all the ratios still agree
15) if we miss the move on Tuesday, the liquidity event becomes "a regular underdog"
16) but at the same time the odds of a bull market breakout by Thursday start to die and die and die quickly
17) why? because we need that move or first leg to happen AND checkdown complete by mornning of Thursday 01/11
18 ) so that's where we are and that's why I am just a "a little bit nervous" here
19) so there's that
9) went from zero to "massive underdog" on 01/03
10) "still a pretty big underdog but not impossible" yesterday
11) ) if we miss the move on Monday 01/08, EVEN IF IT STAYS ABOVE 2040 ...
12) that become a "a big underdog, but possible"
13) if we make the move on Tuesday, WE STILL NEED CONFIRMATION EVERYTHING IS OK
14) to watch for "dead cat bounce" blind spots and make sure all the ratios still agree
15) if we miss the move on Tuesday, the liquidity event becomes "a regular underdog"
16) but at the same time the odds of a bull market breakout by Thursday start to die and die and die quickly
17) why? because we need that move or first leg to happen AND checkdown complete by mornning of Thursday 01/11
18 ) so that's where we are and that's why I am just a "a little bit nervous" here
19) so there's that
Comment:
THE PART THAT IS WORTH THE TROUBLE - If we do fill out 3 boxes in chart at top. Box 3 is the leverage entry box roughly 2055 to 2070. It will be by far THE BIGGEST winner of everything you've seen from me.
a) how is this different from the my call to 1800s and back up to 2000 in Sep and Oct?
b) I only knew that AS IT WAS HAPPENING...
c) so I could call it step by step
d) like the move to 2140 and back down to 2000, again step by step
e) I never said LEVERAGE during that time
f) bc could not "see it in the math" like I do now
g) so there's that
a) how is this different from the my call to 1800s and back up to 2000 in Sep and Oct?
b) I only knew that AS IT WAS HAPPENING...
c) so I could call it step by step
d) like the move to 2140 and back down to 2000, again step by step
e) I never said LEVERAGE during that time
f) bc could not "see it in the math" like I do now
g) so there's that
Comment:
h) that's why I said earlier that if you are defensive you shoul wait until late Wed or ealy Thusrday
i) because in my models and in my mind, the chart at top is almost at "now or never again for at least 6 years"
i) because in my models and in my mind, the chart at top is almost at "now or never again for at least 6 years"
Comment:
1/06 9:27 PM ET, REPLAY THIS FROM 14 MONTHS AGO:
a) the cycles predicted this "01/10-03/08/2024" window in May of 2022
b) but I mapped this November of 2022 in 12-hour bars
c) an old reader asked me if it's still valid a few days ago
d) while the regression map of this chart is no longer valid...
e) an updated regression map for this chart would produce the same result
b) but I mapped this November of 2022 in 12-hour bars
c) an old reader asked me if it's still valid a few days ago
d) while the regression map of this chart is no longer valid...
e) an updated regression map for this chart would produce the same result
Comment:
f) and I mean the same result from here to January of 2026 IF NOT CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
g) but the thing is if you really look at it close, IT IS SO INACCURATE when zoomed in
h) there are huge sections where price did THE MIRROR IMAGE OF projection
i) only to merge with trend in when it came down to the wire
j) well for this period we are in IT IS down to the wire now
k) while I have reasons to call for 2355 for 01/24 and 27xx (and even higher for 03/08)..
l) there is clock on all of that
m) and that clock is what said above about Mon, Tues, Wed and Thursday
g) but the thing is if you really look at it close, IT IS SO INACCURATE when zoomed in
h) there are huge sections where price did THE MIRROR IMAGE OF projection
i) only to merge with trend in when it came down to the wire
j) well for this period we are in IT IS down to the wire now
k) while I have reasons to call for 2355 for 01/24 and 27xx (and even higher for 03/08)..
l) there is clock on all of that
m) and that clock is what said above about Mon, Tues, Wed and Thursday
Comment:
n) and to explain early/late differential in that 12-hour chart
o) the mid-June high came in early May that's VERY good (for the longer run)
p) but the September check down came in October, that puts pressure on the move forward an extra month
q) this was only partially solved by the October rally
r) the 2140 high didn't help any BC IT DID NOT HOLD
s) the two previous check downs to 1970 and last week's to 2030 then 2025 has made this move VERY VERY LATE for the curves overall
u) how late are we?
v) we are 200 pts late for the original chart as of today
w) and more than 250 pts late adjusted for what actually happened
x) this number rises about 5 pts a day per trading day to 01/24 where it starts falling
w) that puts us at 13*5+250+2045=2360
y) but even the intermediate curves disagree now that it can get that high
z) so the celing for 01/19-01/23 is 2270-2280
z1) the 24th if it moves would be a runaway high when the machines chase it up and then shoots it down in two days
z2) the window for high vol up starts on 01/11 (Thursday)
z3) so same conclusion, either chart at top is correct, off by 1 day at the most or
z4) it's really over and we start setting up for
z5) from what the regression map says
z6) a liquidity crisis (which is always super bearish SURPRISE by definition)
o) the mid-June high came in early May that's VERY good (for the longer run)
p) but the September check down came in October, that puts pressure on the move forward an extra month
q) this was only partially solved by the October rally
r) the 2140 high didn't help any BC IT DID NOT HOLD
s) the two previous check downs to 1970 and last week's to 2030 then 2025 has made this move VERY VERY LATE for the curves overall
u) how late are we?
v) we are 200 pts late for the original chart as of today
w) and more than 250 pts late adjusted for what actually happened
x) this number rises about 5 pts a day per trading day to 01/24 where it starts falling
w) that puts us at 13*5+250+2045=2360
y) but even the intermediate curves disagree now that it can get that high
z) so the celing for 01/19-01/23 is 2270-2280
z1) the 24th if it moves would be a runaway high when the machines chase it up and then shoots it down in two days
z2) the window for high vol up starts on 01/11 (Thursday)
z3) so same conclusion, either chart at top is correct, off by 1 day at the most or
z4) it's really over and we start setting up for
z5) from what the regression map says
z6) a liquidity crisis (which is always super bearish SURPRISE by definition)
Comment:
SATURDAY 01/06, 10:44 PM ET LAST NOTE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT VOL
a) for chart above..
b) there was a reason I called for 2077 before Friday's close
c) because it was mathematically favored and event driven
d) we have a setup for Sunday night to 2105 before midnight
e) but this is not the same as the drive to 2140 on previous Sunday night
f) that was easy to call because it came from a bullish position already (for the coming 24 hours)
g) this is not a bullish position so it really needs an event driver
h) NFP is over, that reaction over and done with
i) so either something hit the news wire before Sunday open
j) or the invisible hand sweats a little bit and slip over the controls whatever...
k) just be aware that this senario is real
l) I just can't call for it because of the weak Friday close ...
m) bc I can' explain why not Friday afternoon but Sunday night
n) IT'S NOT THE MATH.. bc the math was ready Friday at noon
b) there was a reason I called for 2077 before Friday's close
c) because it was mathematically favored and event driven
d) we have a setup for Sunday night to 2105 before midnight
e) but this is not the same as the drive to 2140 on previous Sunday night
f) that was easy to call because it came from a bullish position already (for the coming 24 hours)
g) this is not a bullish position so it really needs an event driver
h) NFP is over, that reaction over and done with
i) so either something hit the news wire before Sunday open
j) or the invisible hand sweats a little bit and slip over the controls whatever...
k) just be aware that this senario is real
l) I just can't call for it because of the weak Friday close ...
m) bc I can' explain why not Friday afternoon but Sunday night
n) IT'S NOT THE MATH.. bc the math was ready Friday at noon
Comment:
o) if the machines make this happen Sunday night, I have back up plan for that too
p) we will cross that bridge if and when
p) we will cross that bridge if and when
Comment:
q) 11:24 PM ET .. which made me realize there's one route I didn't think about...
r) if 3RD PREPWORK's route just simply pushed 8 hours bc of the swing.... ready for that too
s) my thoughts are simply since we are so behind, something FASTER than chart at top should happen, bc chart at top is TOO PACED AND LOGICAL for trend map
u) that too we will play it by ear
r) if 3RD PREPWORK's route just simply pushed 8 hours bc of the swing.... ready for that too
s) my thoughts are simply since we are so behind, something FASTER than chart at top should happen, bc chart at top is TOO PACED AND LOGICAL for trend map
u) that too we will play it by ear
Comment:
11:50 PM, I'm almost convinced price has to move Sunday night
a) why?
b) the math says that it is unclear that a move on Tuesday would produce a "lasting higher top"
c) meaning a higher top than 2088, then stall again, then HUGE QUESTIONS
d) so that makes Monday a DO OR DIE scenario
e) ever heard the saying "maybe always means no"?
f) well, "do or die scenarios in price action means die like 10 to 1"
h) I don't know if that's true, that's what I've been told by drunk people who speak from the heart...
i) so be aware, ok?
a) why?
b) the math says that it is unclear that a move on Tuesday would produce a "lasting higher top"
c) meaning a higher top than 2088, then stall again, then HUGE QUESTIONS
d) so that makes Monday a DO OR DIE scenario
e) ever heard the saying "maybe always means no"?
f) well, "do or die scenarios in price action means die like 10 to 1"
h) I don't know if that's true, that's what I've been told by drunk people who speak from the heart...
i) so be aware, ok?
Comment:
01/07 12:43 AM ET ... I think I have it. I think so.
a) I'll go live today at 6 PM ET
b) and bit of surprise here
c) but ready for that too!
d) if you're not long
e) it should be long at open
a) I'll go live today at 6 PM ET
b) and bit of surprise here
c) but ready for that too!
d) if you're not long
e) it should be long at open
Comment:
01/07, 2:28 PM ET, THIS POST HAS ENDED , HERE IS PART 3:
