2ND PREPWORK FOR 01/10-15 RALLY
SUMMARY - I've talked for 20 months about 01/10/24 to 03/08/24 as being the last argument for gold bull market. We are 7 trading days from 01/10 entry. This is what my execution plan looks like now.
DETAILS - So the range of extrapolations all fit inside the blue trapezoid. I have so many zig-zag routes that if I put them all up, they would fill out the rest of that trapezoid. So I picked the the most likely five. First price need to decide if it wants to check 2055. Then it spends the entire next week moving to 2150-ish. This should be done night of Monday 01/08. Then comes checkdown to 2080 area by 01/10. The move to 2200-2240 by Monday 01/15 has more implied 2-way vol, but I will know a lot more on 01/10.
DETAILS - So the range of extrapolations all fit inside the blue trapezoid. I have so many zig-zag routes that if I put them all up, they would fill out the rest of that trapezoid. So I picked the the most likely five. First price need to decide if it wants to check 2055. Then it spends the entire next week moving to 2150-ish. This should be done night of Monday 01/08. Then comes checkdown to 2080 area by 01/10. The move to 2200-2240 by Monday 01/15 has more implied 2-way vol, but I will know a lot more on 01/10.
Comment:
4:21 PM ET, implications of this chart playing out
a) if we move to 2150 by next Monday night or Tuesday morning 01/08-09
b) whatever the check down of 01/10 is (2100, 90 80, 70, as long as its above 2065)
c) then 2200 is obvious for 01/15
d) if 2080 holds on 01/10 then 2240 is a target for 01/15
e) why does this matter
f) this high determines range of 01/24 high
g) which right now looks like 2280-2420
h) which is a very wide range for being only 23 days out
a) if we move to 2150 by next Monday night or Tuesday morning 01/08-09
b) whatever the check down of 01/10 is (2100, 90 80, 70, as long as its above 2065)
c) then 2200 is obvious for 01/15
d) if 2080 holds on 01/10 then 2240 is a target for 01/15
e) why does this matter
f) this high determines range of 01/24 high
g) which right now looks like 2280-2420
h) which is a very wide range for being only 23 days out
Comment:
1/2, 1:54 PM ET, 2061.XX
a) price checked 2055 a couple hours ago
b) the way it moved for 2078 first before it checked down a stuck in a twisting trend trap right now so it can't move off 2060
c) it's one of those situations that it is "tehnically ready to move" but simply does not move until it moves
d) there's no guessing when it will
e) but there is a specific time that it has to move by ...
f) and i'm trying to figure when that is right now
a) price checked 2055 a couple hours ago
b) the way it moved for 2078 first before it checked down a stuck in a twisting trend trap right now so it can't move off 2060
c) it's one of those situations that it is "tehnically ready to move" but simply does not move until it moves
d) there's no guessing when it will
e) but there is a specific time that it has to move by ...
f) and i'm trying to figure when that is right now
Comment:
g) 2:04 PM ET, the twisting trends will break by midnight Wed into Thursday
h) so so either it moves in 5 minutes or anytime between now and Thursday
h) so so either it moves in 5 minutes or anytime between now and Thursday
Comment:
2:22 PM ET... still 2061
a) this situation is different from other situations in that...
b) the longer it is stuck here at 2060
c) the more unpredictable the picture becomes
d) the waves start to get more convoluted
e) doesn't make it bearish by any means
f) but it adds more and more daily 2-way vol as it moves up
g) so buy and hold is pretty much the only strategy here
a) this situation is different from other situations in that...
b) the longer it is stuck here at 2060
c) the more unpredictable the picture becomes
d) the waves start to get more convoluted
e) doesn't make it bearish by any means
f) but it adds more and more daily 2-way vol as it moves up
g) so buy and hold is pretty much the only strategy here
Comment:
6:45 PM ET, 2059.XX, range of outcomes to end of this week widening
a) getting into annoying unpredictable territory
b) I have only have one move here, which is buy slowly
c) if it drops again, I buy again
a) getting into annoying unpredictable territory
b) I have only have one move here, which is buy slowly
c) if it drops again, I buy again
Comment:
9:35 AM 1/03, ENTRY 50% POSITION, 2035 (75% in)
a) I know I said buy slowly
b) but I am not raising leverage until 01/10-11
a) I know I said buy slowly
b) but I am not raising leverage until 01/10-11
Comment:
11:33 AM ET 2033.XX ENTRY COMPLETED
Comment:
a) dead floor looks like 2020-ish
b) but I'm not trying to nail the floor
c) I am 110% happy with my entry for 01/15
d) there's still the matter of what we look like from here to end of 01/10
b) but I'm not trying to nail the floor
c) I am 110% happy with my entry for 01/15
d) there's still the matter of what we look like from here to end of 01/10
Comment:
2:45 PM ET NOW WAITING FOR MONDAY
a) Monday decides the blue or yellow
b) I'm fully bought
c) what I am really waiting for is 1/10 or 1/11 where I press the leverage:
b) I'm fully bought
c) what I am really waiting for is 1/10 or 1/11 where I press the leverage:
Comment:
3:39 PM ET, 2 MOVES LEFT FOR THIS TRADE, LEVERAGING UP AND CHOOSE YOUR EXIT
Comment:
a) for chart above, there's only one move that MAY move outcomes for the next 5 days
b) thats if price moves to 2075 over night
c) and then it's still just maybe
b) thats if price moves to 2075 over night
c) and then it's still just maybe
Comment:
THIS POST HAS ENDED - HERE IS 3RD PREPWORK:
a) if floor not in, unlikely to dip under 2055
b) if dragged out, 2055 can get hit under the trapezoid Tues AM like this:
d) from my end, anything under 2055 is a steal
e) but my target is 01/15, 2200-2240
f) yes, if price follows trapezoid, I obvious sell on or before 01/08 and wait for re-entry on 01/10