LIVE#16! ENTRY FOR 01/24/24 2280-2400 TOP
SUMMARY - This is the 12/22/23, 15-min bar, 12-trading day, semi-detailed, CONTINUOUS EVOLVING FORECAST for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. Continuing from #15!, I discussed switching into intermediate trading mode where our focus is amassing entries for first top around January 24, 2024 (2280-2400, looking like 2310 right now).
STRATEGY - Simple buy and hold for next 33 days WITH ONE EXCEPTION. Regression mapping says that should we see 2135-ish ON OR BEFORE 01/04/24, we need to take a break for a 50-60 point retrace to a 2085 bottom on January 9th, 2024 where we reload with leverage for another 15 days.
DETAILS - As a warning, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. Be aware that there is AN ACTUAL LIMIT on the number updates I can do per post, so I am not going be super detailed. That said, it's been working out anyway. Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them occasionally as frame of reference, but most importantly, as evidence that legit forecasting help you win day in and day out. And if my forecasts help you make REAL MONEY, help me out by spreading the word to people you know PERSONALLY to keep this thing going. Please hit like/boost button.
INTERMEDIATE MINDSET - Please understand that I am in intermediate mode, or buy and hold mode unless I see a good reason to "take a break and take money off the table". So in that sense, this draft #16 is pretty much the same as #15, but has stronger lead-in for next 2 weeks. This has the effect of moving the 01/24 high from 2280 to 2310, and this may change again. I have talked about the zone from 01/10-03/08, 2024 for basically 19-20 months now. We are basically there, so I am simply in entry mode. Since I have serious money on this move, I make several entries and I don't really stop until 01/09. This is just in case things don't turn out the way we want it to for the next 10 trading days.
STRATEGY - Simple buy and hold for next 33 days WITH ONE EXCEPTION. Regression mapping says that should we see 2135-ish ON OR BEFORE 01/04/24, we need to take a break for a 50-60 point retrace to a 2085 bottom on January 9th, 2024 where we reload with leverage for another 15 days.
DETAILS - As a warning, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. Be aware that there is AN ACTUAL LIMIT on the number updates I can do per post, so I am not going be super detailed. That said, it's been working out anyway. Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them occasionally as frame of reference, but most importantly, as evidence that legit forecasting help you win day in and day out. And if my forecasts help you make REAL MONEY, help me out by spreading the word to people you know PERSONALLY to keep this thing going. Please hit like/boost button.
INTERMEDIATE MINDSET - Please understand that I am in intermediate mode, or buy and hold mode unless I see a good reason to "take a break and take money off the table". So in that sense, this draft #16 is pretty much the same as #15, but has stronger lead-in for next 2 weeks. This has the effect of moving the 01/24 high from 2280 to 2310, and this may change again. I have talked about the zone from 01/10-03/08, 2024 for basically 19-20 months now. We are basically there, so I am simply in entry mode. Since I have serious money on this move, I make several entries and I don't really stop until 01/09. This is just in case things don't turn out the way we want it to for the next 10 trading days.
Comment:
IF YOU TRADE OFTEN - I am going to be useless. Why? Because attention is on 33-day time frame. Since I am not trying to make money today or tomorrow, my view WOULD INVALID TO YOUR TIME FRAME. So it doesn't work. You should find somebody else for that.
Comment:
12/23 2:10 PM , GENERAL PLAN FOR NEXT 24 DAYS, TO THE FIRST HIGH ON 01/15:
a) number crunching says floor for 12/26 open is 2046
b) floor for 01/08-09 is 2065-2075
c) so the strategy is BUY AND HOLD TO 01/24
d) on this date either 2280 or 2400 will get hit
e) but prices don't move in a straight line
f) if you can check price 4 times a day, there will be two major retraces
g) the first one is 70 pts from 2140-ish to 2070-ish with the floor likely on 01/08
h) the second one is 90 to 140 pts from high on 01/15 to low the next day 01/16
i) obviously the second one depends on what the picture looks like through January 10th
b) floor for 01/08-09 is 2065-2075
c) so the strategy is BUY AND HOLD TO 01/24
d) on this date either 2280 or 2400 will get hit
e) but prices don't move in a straight line
f) if you can check price 4 times a day, there will be two major retraces
g) the first one is 70 pts from 2140-ish to 2070-ish with the floor likely on 01/08
h) the second one is 90 to 140 pts from high on 01/15 to low the next day 01/16
i) obviously the second one depends on what the picture looks like through January 10th
Comment:
j) so once you have your entry, the first action is watch for the high at roughly 2135 (2120-2160)
k) odds favor that it should come on Friday 01/05
l) but SHOULD IT CHOOSE THE 12/29 ROUTE (the yellow route), I will know This Wednesday
m) after that we buy on 01/08-09 for the big move up
k) odds favor that it should come on Friday 01/05
l) but SHOULD IT CHOOSE THE 12/29 ROUTE (the yellow route), I will know This Wednesday
m) after that we buy on 01/08-09 for the big move up
Comment:
12/23, 7:46 PM THIS ZONE WHERE YOU SELL 2135, IS MORE LIKE 2135-2175
a) in chart above; the more extrapolations I run, the more 12/29 highs I get
b) and more "zig zag highs" as opposed to singular early high vs late high
c) so again:
1) get your entry
2) sell 2135-2175 on 12/29 to 01/05
3) rebuy 2075-2080 on 01/08 to 01/09
b) and more "zig zag highs" as opposed to singular early high vs late high
c) so again:
1) get your entry
2) sell 2135-2175 on 12/29 to 01/05
3) rebuy 2075-2080 on 01/08 to 01/09
Comment:
Comment:
12/25 8:12 PM ET - MERRY CHRISTMAS AT 2056.55 RIGHT NOW...
1) odds of us skipping the 2046 check down increased considerably since open 2 hours ago
2) anything else?
3) odds of us closing Friday above 2100 increased considerably as well
4) odds of an even higher route by January 10th has increased too w/ a high 2200 before January 10th
5) does that change target for January 24 at 2280-2400
6) in a word, no
7) regression ratio reconciliation has put a firm ceiling of 2325 through Valentine's day
8) I don't see this limit moving until we get limited sell off after 2200-2250
1) odds of us skipping the 2046 check down increased considerably since open 2 hours ago
2) anything else?
3) odds of us closing Friday above 2100 increased considerably as well
4) odds of an even higher route by January 10th has increased too w/ a high 2200 before January 10th
5) does that change target for January 24 at 2280-2400
6) in a word, no
7) regression ratio reconciliation has put a firm ceiling of 2325 through Valentine's day
8) I don't see this limit moving until we get limited sell off after 2200-2250
Comment:
9) meaning even with stronger performance through 01/10... that celing for 01/24 and through 02/14 has actually dropped
10) WHETHER OR NOT we tag 2240 ahead of 01/10...
11) sigh... I don't see this period through 03/08/24 as being "the mother of rallies" any more...
12) I see a subdued ceiling of 2375 for March with only scenario being able to change that
13) that is we close Friday above 2135, and then tag 2240 by 01/10 AND ....
14) get a limited sell off before next leg up ...
15) that is REALLY DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE
10) WHETHER OR NOT we tag 2240 ahead of 01/10...
11) sigh... I don't see this period through 03/08/24 as being "the mother of rallies" any more...
12) I see a subdued ceiling of 2375 for March with only scenario being able to change that
13) that is we close Friday above 2135, and then tag 2240 by 01/10 AND ....
14) get a limited sell off before next leg up ...
15) that is REALLY DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE
Comment:
8:44 PM ET CONSIDER:
1) for chart above... yellow route is MASSIVE DOG to blue routes right now
2) and price HAS TO OUTPERFORM YELLOW ROUTE at the tail end where the arrow it
3) odds of this happening is not zero.. but if you run extrapolations 128 times...
4) IT DOES NOT SHOW UP ONCE RIGHT NOW...
2) and price HAS TO OUTPERFORM YELLOW ROUTE at the tail end where the arrow it
3) odds of this happening is not zero.. but if you run extrapolations 128 times...
4) IT DOES NOT SHOW UP ONCE RIGHT NOW...
Comment:
5. AND...
Comment:
a) in chart above see that yellow spike reaching for 2540-ish?
b) that has NOT show up yet....
c) that's me trying to find out what it would take for me to not quit gold and go trade bitcoin or something
b) that has NOT show up yet....
c) that's me trying to find out what it would take for me to not quit gold and go trade bitcoin or something
Comment:
10:30 PM ET... 2064.XX
a) if it checks here, it is 2058
b) after that it is 2080-2085 tomorrow morning
c) is that good enough for a retrace to 2065?
d) hold on a second...
e) 10:34 PM, so it doesn't look like it from here
f) so if it does in a situation where it DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT WOULD...
g) that's only 9-12 hours out, then it should be a stick save...
h) meaning I see maybe 2058 next, then 2083-ish getting hit AM tomorrow
i) then smackdown to 2064-ish
j) then V-shape bounce to 2095 Tuesday PM
k) this is to manage expectations FOR OUT 30-DAY (LEFTOVER) TRADE ...
l) NOT TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS DAYTRADING ADVICE...
m) that's a wrap for Christmas 2023
a) if it checks here, it is 2058
b) after that it is 2080-2085 tomorrow morning
c) is that good enough for a retrace to 2065?
d) hold on a second...
e) 10:34 PM, so it doesn't look like it from here
f) so if it does in a situation where it DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT WOULD...
g) that's only 9-12 hours out, then it should be a stick save...
h) meaning I see maybe 2058 next, then 2083-ish getting hit AM tomorrow
i) then smackdown to 2064-ish
j) then V-shape bounce to 2095 Tuesday PM
k) this is to manage expectations FOR OUT 30-DAY (LEFTOVER) TRADE ...
l) NOT TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS DAYTRADING ADVICE...
m) that's a wrap for Christmas 2023
Comment:
n) 10:48, if it skips 2058 here, then it's obviously 2072 next before another check down...
o) but that doesn't make our trend that much stronger bc it's showing it will get jammed in between 2066 and 2072 for hours before anything happens...
p) which then leads to 2082-85 and then still check down to 2061-64 before moving up again
o) but that doesn't make our trend that much stronger bc it's showing it will get jammed in between 2066 and 2072 for hours before anything happens...
p) which then leads to 2082-85 and then still check down to 2061-64 before moving up again
Comment:
11:12 PM ET, maybe this for Thursday PM:
Comment:
no, more like this:
Comment:
12/25, 11:39 PM ET, the signal is real, we see if there's follow through
a) yeah so, 2145 by NY CLOSE Thursday
b) about 64 hours from now
a) yeah so, 2145 by NY CLOSE Thursday
b) about 64 hours from now
Comment:
11:52 PM ET...
c) I see something, but let's not jinx it by actually saying what it is that I see...
d) doesn't matter if we don't fill the chart right above here
e) we need to see that first, and then we can talk miracles
c) I see something, but let's not jinx it by actually saying what it is that I see...
d) doesn't matter if we don't fill the chart right above here
e) we need to see that first, and then we can talk miracles
Comment:
12/25 10:07 AM, 2059.xx, AFTER VERY LATE 2054 CHECK DOWN
a) means all quicker routes vs chart at top eliminated
b) even the quickest/highestt hi-lights in chart at top unlikely to hit now
c) so what are expectations?
d) same as they were on Christmas eve
e) 2100 to close the year with a chance for 2125-ish
f) 2135-45 by 01/04-05
g) followed by 2070-85 check down by 01/08-09
h) which leads to all the annoying things I said about this chart last night:
a) means all quicker routes vs chart at top eliminated
b) even the quickest/highestt hi-lights in chart at top unlikely to hit now
c) so what are expectations?
d) same as they were on Christmas eve
e) 2100 to close the year with a chance for 2125-ish
f) 2135-45 by 01/04-05
g) followed by 2070-85 check down by 01/08-09
h) which leads to all the annoying things I said about this chart last night:
Comment:
i) we are not going to do yellow route
j) it's going to be blue for six months
k) for 2023 bitcoin is up 157%, gold is up who cares%
l) it's getting really hard to stay in this market
j) it's going to be blue for six months
k) for 2023 bitcoin is up 157%, gold is up who cares%
l) it's getting really hard to stay in this market
Comment:
12/26, 8:38 PM ET, 2067.43, got a runaway spike signal
a) roughly 11-12 hours out...
b) so that would be done before NY OPEN tomrrow
c) I can't tell what the celing is
d) but it's runaway spike which guarantees it getting shot down...
e) in that sense, IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT THE CEILING IS, bc
f) it will get shot down tomorrow
g) but the first levels are 2084, 2095, 2100, 2115, 2125
h) all are liable to get hit (AND GET SHOT DOWN AFTERWARDS)
a) roughly 11-12 hours out...
b) so that would be done before NY OPEN tomrrow
c) I can't tell what the celing is
d) but it's runaway spike which guarantees it getting shot down...
e) in that sense, IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT THE CEILING IS, bc
f) it will get shot down tomorrow
g) but the first levels are 2084, 2095, 2100, 2115, 2125
h) all are liable to get hit (AND GET SHOT DOWN AFTERWARDS)
Comment:
i) max pain is 2140 and 2085 retrace within 8 hours of high
j) those are the raw numbers ...
k) so be aware just in case
j) those are the raw numbers ...
k) so be aware just in case
Comment:
l) 8:56 pm ET... I am not sure it is tonight or tomorrow afternoon
n) the big bars say before NY OPEN...
o) everything under 15 min bar disagrees...
p) says it should be after 1PM ET tomorrow...
q) maybe even aftermarket...
r) and there is a possibility of 2 spikes
s) one getting immediately smacked down at 2095
t) and the second one above 2125 that would take 8 hours to sell off to 2090 area again
u) that's what the math says if big volume shows up
n) the big bars say before NY OPEN...
o) everything under 15 min bar disagrees...
p) says it should be after 1PM ET tomorrow...
q) maybe even aftermarket...
r) and there is a possibility of 2 spikes
s) one getting immediately smacked down at 2095
t) and the second one above 2125 that would take 8 hours to sell off to 2090 area again
u) that's what the math says if big volume shows up
Comment:
12/27 12:48 AM ET, gold just can't stop sucking...
a) another setup window missed and it only had to make 1971 to keep it going
b) so more feet dragging and zig-zag retracing...
c) you can forget anything above 2080...
d) if it sticks its head above 1975, is it going to get chopped off?
e) that's what it feels like
f) weak AF
a) another setup window missed and it only had to make 1971 to keep it going
b) so more feet dragging and zig-zag retracing...
c) you can forget anything above 2080...
d) if it sticks its head above 1975, is it going to get chopped off?
e) that's what it feels like
f) weak AF
Comment:
8:47 AM 2067.XX
a) we dont have a break out setup
b) we definitely a crash setup
c) we have A SLOWLY ASCENDING STAIRCASE SETUP TO EVENTUAL BREAK OUT
d) what it looks like exactly?
a) we dont have a break out setup
b) we definitely a crash setup
c) we have A SLOWLY ASCENDING STAIRCASE SETUP TO EVENTUAL BREAK OUT
d) what it looks like exactly?
Comment:
f) best guess:
Comment:
1) wait!
2) stronger staircase than that!
2) stronger staircase than that!
Comment:
9:26 AM ET SO LIKE THIS, AND I'LL MAKE A NEW POST
Comment:
9:31 AM with this being a similar second version:
Comment:
9:46 AM ET 2070.XX still have a shot for 2085 today
Comment:
a) so 9:57 AM ET 2070.27 as I am typing
b) day session is moving for 74, 75
c) break that and we move for 85
d) but it will get sold off without a doubt if it makes it there
b) day session is moving for 74, 75
c) break that and we move for 85
d) but it will get sold off without a doubt if it makes it there
Comment:
11:21 AM ET 2080.XX closing in on top before reversing.
a) I said 2085 and I see that 2090 is likely on 1-min bars...
b) but anything bigger then 1-hr bar just don't agree
c) so I think if it gets to 2090, it should be rugpull to to 73 then zig zag for A WHILE
a) I said 2085 and I see that 2090 is likely on 1-min bars...
b) but anything bigger then 1-hr bar just don't agree
c) so I think if it gets to 2090, it should be rugpull to to 73 then zig zag for A WHILE
Comment:
1:35 PM ET 78.36, couldn't get past 84.xx as expected, now moving for 1973...
a) so no change to previously discussed overall picture..
b) of a moderately stronger staircase...
a) so no change to previously discussed overall picture..
b) of a moderately stronger staircase...
Comment:
c) 1:52 PM, no adjustment for today also means a quicker staircase... sigh...
d) just hang in there til we get somewhere
d) just hang in there til we get somewhere
Comment:
3:51 MY BAD ON THE TYPO .. .IT'S 2073.. NOT 1973
a) but it's stuck here at 2077 right now
b) it doesn't have a big window to sell off like usual...
c) if it's going move to 2073, it needs to do it by 10-11 PM ET...
d) once there, you get in neutral zone, which with momentum, is a bullish zone
e) so yeah 2073, maybe 71 maybe 69 with about 6 trading hours to move there
a) but it's stuck here at 2077 right now
b) it doesn't have a big window to sell off like usual...
c) if it's going move to 2073, it needs to do it by 10-11 PM ET...
d) once there, you get in neutral zone, which with momentum, is a bullish zone
e) so yeah 2073, maybe 71 maybe 69 with about 6 trading hours to move there
Trade active:
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