LIVE#17! A BREAK AT 2135-2150, DRAFT 1
SUMMARY - This is the 12/27/23, 15-min bar, 48-hour, ultra-detailed, CONTINUOUS EVOLVING FORECAST for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. Continuing from #16!, I see an incoming staircase with a shot of closing all time high this Friday. So that's why this is DRAFT 1, in case I need a DRAFT 2. If not Friday, then 01/03-04 will give us this high. While in #16!, I said we would wait for 01/08-09 to reload for 2280+, we may not have to wait that long. It may just be 36 hours.
DETAILS - As a warning, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. Be aware that there is AN ACTUAL LIMIT on the number updates I can do per post, so I am not going be super detailed. That said, it's been working out anyway. Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them occasionally as frame of reference, but most importantly, as evidence that legit forecasting help you win day in and day out. And if my forecasts help you make REAL MONEY, help me out by spreading the word to people you know PERSONALLY to keep this thing going. Please hit like/boost button.
INTERMEDIATE MINDSET - Please understand that I am in intermediate mode, or buy and hold mode unless I see a good reason to "take a break and take money off the table". So in that sense, my notes are to manage expectations for an intermediate swing trade, not buy today sell tomorrow. Be aware of time frame mismatch if you are trading everyday.
DETAILS - As a warning, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. Be aware that there is AN ACTUAL LIMIT on the number updates I can do per post, so I am not going be super detailed. That said, it's been working out anyway. Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them occasionally as frame of reference, but most importantly, as evidence that legit forecasting help you win day in and day out. And if my forecasts help you make REAL MONEY, help me out by spreading the word to people you know PERSONALLY to keep this thing going. Please hit like/boost button.
INTERMEDIATE MINDSET - Please understand that I am in intermediate mode, or buy and hold mode unless I see a good reason to "take a break and take money off the table". So in that sense, my notes are to manage expectations for an intermediate swing trade, not buy today sell tomorrow. Be aware of time frame mismatch if you are trading everyday.
Comment:
6:24 PM ET:
Comment:
6:53 PM ET, with only about 270 minutes left to go for "weak window" at 2079.xx
1) odds favor low is in or at 2075-76
2) this is obvious, but the less we check down and go sideways...
3) the higher the odds of closing this Friday 2135+
4) the higher the odds of a quick check down next Tues-Wed for a rebound to even higher by next Friday...
5) again, if if if if if ...
6) gold has been disappointing AF ...
1) odds favor low is in or at 2075-76
2) this is obvious, but the less we check down and go sideways...
3) the higher the odds of closing this Friday 2135+
4) the higher the odds of a quick check down next Tues-Wed for a rebound to even higher by next Friday...
5) again, if if if if if ...
6) gold has been disappointing AF ...
Comment:
7) so don't get your hopes up, let's play it by ear
Comment:
7:40 PM, WEAK ZONE SHORTENED...
a) about 2 hours to go now
b) before we rebound up again, first slowly then spike
c) ceiling 2100
d) approximately 3 AM ET...
e) meaning checkdown from 3AM TO 9 AM to first 2084, maybe 73 after that bc we skipped it tonight? ... not sure
f) can't tell but I don't think so yet
a) about 2 hours to go now
b) before we rebound up again, first slowly then spike
c) ceiling 2100
d) approximately 3 AM ET...
e) meaning checkdown from 3AM TO 9 AM to first 2084, maybe 73 after that bc we skipped it tonight? ... not sure
f) can't tell but I don't think so yet
Comment:
8:29 PM ET 83.55
a) moving faster than anticipated
b) the reason I'm gun shy here about this move is way it leaned into it...
c) this patter ALMOST ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECKS before the rush up
d) and I only say almost bc of this time....
e) I've never seen it make this pattern and move early
f) but it is what it is
a) moving faster than anticipated
b) the reason I'm gun shy here about this move is way it leaned into it...
c) this patter ALMOST ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECKS before the rush up
d) and I only say almost bc of this time....
e) I've never seen it make this pattern and move early
f) but it is what it is
Comment:
g) if we move this fast...
h) the ceiling is a bit lower at roughly 2095
h) the ceiling is a bit lower at roughly 2095
Comment:
12/27 9:53 PM 2086.53
a) can we do 2095 before 1 AM?
b) odds favor we do that
c) anything above that hard to see right now
d) last night I spoke of two spikes coming today...
e) originally it was supposed to be 2095 (shot down), and then 2125-40 (shot down in 8 hours afterwards)
f) then last night, price failed to keep trend to hold the setup
g) and with the check down to 60-61 in the morning, we end up with 2085 in the morning
h) and this second run now
i) but in place of that, we likely have a third run tomorrow
j) so question what top should be tonignt
k) and what checkdown should be before NY OPEN,
l) that looks like 2096-2080...
m) obviously, with enough volume and momentum, these numbers can vary some
o) but overall... top tonight, checkdown before NY open, third run during day session tomorrow
p) that looks like 2115 from my number crunching
q) of course, all this depends on reaching 2096 or better before 1 AM ET....
r) to summarize the overall plan
s) we are selling the Friday or Tuesday top of 2135-2150
t) and reloading either w/in 36 hours of that exit
u) OR waiting until 01/08 for the second round of entries
v) that's a wrap for me tonight
a) can we do 2095 before 1 AM?
b) odds favor we do that
c) anything above that hard to see right now
d) last night I spoke of two spikes coming today...
e) originally it was supposed to be 2095 (shot down), and then 2125-40 (shot down in 8 hours afterwards)
f) then last night, price failed to keep trend to hold the setup
g) and with the check down to 60-61 in the morning, we end up with 2085 in the morning
h) and this second run now
i) but in place of that, we likely have a third run tomorrow
j) so question what top should be tonignt
k) and what checkdown should be before NY OPEN,
l) that looks like 2096-2080...
m) obviously, with enough volume and momentum, these numbers can vary some
o) but overall... top tonight, checkdown before NY open, third run during day session tomorrow
p) that looks like 2115 from my number crunching
q) of course, all this depends on reaching 2096 or better before 1 AM ET....
r) to summarize the overall plan
s) we are selling the Friday or Tuesday top of 2135-2150
t) and reloading either w/in 36 hours of that exit
u) OR waiting until 01/08 for the second round of entries
v) that's a wrap for me tonight
Comment:
11:05 PM ET 2087.23, startting to look ugly AF
a) that's not even a pt off the high of 2088.xx
b) and all of a sudden 2096 looks impossible tonight...
c) it's hard to see how this get past 2091.5 IF it moves up any more now
d) hang in there, whatever happens we should one more run tomorrow
a) that's not even a pt off the high of 2088.xx
b) and all of a sudden 2096 looks impossible tonight...
c) it's hard to see how this get past 2091.5 IF it moves up any more now
d) hang in there, whatever happens we should one more run tomorrow
Comment:
1:45 AM ET 2086.XX ... it "looks like" it's moving for 2095 now finally BUT
a) I don't know if its actually going to do it or just do nothing
b) first, no volume..
c) second gold is just disappointing AF, so it's probably nothing
d) I'm just saying, the setup is is there if it wants to move there so...
e) it can have some room to check down in the morning
a) I don't know if its actually going to do it or just do nothing
b) first, no volume..
c) second gold is just disappointing AF, so it's probably nothing
d) I'm just saying, the setup is is there if it wants to move there so...
e) it can have some room to check down in the morning
Comment:
12/28 5:45 AM 2074.XX, MY BAD ON THIS ONE...
a) failing to break 2088 and move to 2091-92 ...
b) would set up a check down to 1973
c) I should've said that even if I didn't think it would happen
d) literally 2 hours while I slept
e) we're ok, we should this back today
f) I just don't know if Friday is going to do anything
g) because the daily curves is looking like it needs 2 days to fix
a) failing to break 2088 and move to 2091-92 ...
b) would set up a check down to 1973
c) I should've said that even if I didn't think it would happen
d) literally 2 hours while I slept
e) we're ok, we should this back today
f) I just don't know if Friday is going to do anything
g) because the daily curves is looking like it needs 2 days to fix
Comment:
6:08 AM 2077.XX FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH...
a) there's a spike setup forming worth about 60 pts
b) with 6 hours to get position, so it would start around noon
c) and 8 hours to complete, meaning with extra hour after market...
d) this should complete by 9 PM ET...
e) but if were really to happen, it may complete in just 3 hours...
f) meaning...
g) at noon we get around 2080-2084 again
h) and then we spike to 2135 by NY CLOSE...
i) but again, these run away setups are fire... but they also get put out quickly when they follow through
j) so be aware
a) there's a spike setup forming worth about 60 pts
b) with 6 hours to get position, so it would start around noon
c) and 8 hours to complete, meaning with extra hour after market...
d) this should complete by 9 PM ET...
e) but if were really to happen, it may complete in just 3 hours...
f) meaning...
g) at noon we get around 2080-2084 again
h) and then we spike to 2135 by NY CLOSE...
i) but again, these run away setups are fire... but they also get put out quickly when they follow through
j) so be aware
Comment:
k) 6:19 AM ET, there are preconditions for this to happen
l) so I will announce if everything is "in position"
m) considering the overall situation, odds here not terrible for this to follow through
l) so I will announce if everything is "in position"
m) considering the overall situation, odds here not terrible for this to follow through
Comment:
6:57 AM ET... IT'S NOT GOING TO BE THAT BIG... YET...
a) so the ceiling is 2094, 2098, 2102
b) the math says we move to 2094 but stall
c) and zig zag 2098 then 2102.( give or take a few pts with the zig zag)
d) then we need overnight into Friday for the big spike setup
e) so similar to what I had at chart at top EXCEPT I had 1973 first then 85 then 95 and so on...
f) instead we did 88, 73, now getting in position for 2095
a) so the ceiling is 2094, 2098, 2102
b) the math says we move to 2094 but stall
c) and zig zag 2098 then 2102.( give or take a few pts with the zig zag)
d) then we need overnight into Friday for the big spike setup
e) so similar to what I had at chart at top EXCEPT I had 1973 first then 85 then 95 and so on...
f) instead we did 88, 73, now getting in position for 2095
Comment:
11:08 AM ET.. THIS BOX STARTING TO LOOK BAD...
a) we spending too much time here in that box
b) now it starting to look like it might do something else
c) what that is.. I dont even know, but it's not bullish
d) we need to get above 2078 AND HOLD, an hour or two or this starting to look really bad
b) now it starting to look like it might do something else
c) what that is.. I dont even know, but it's not bullish
d) we need to get above 2078 AND HOLD, an hour or two or this starting to look really bad
Comment:
12/28 11:45 AM ET 2074.40 and falling
a) BECAREFUL HERE...
b) I can't tell what's going on...
c) I am out of longs until I have something figured out
d) it is trying to find a reason to sell off
a) BECAREFUL HERE...
b) I can't tell what's going on...
c) I am out of longs until I have something figured out
d) it is trying to find a reason to sell off
Comment:
1:17 PM ET 2073.XX back in and confused
a) today's price action is so annoying
b) the only way to make it sense is a 60-70 pt move from here to Friday's close
c) otherwise, don't know what the tight coiling of regressions here mean
d) it's already tried to sell off but couldn't
e) so logically, we should close Friday all time high
f) but I am really annoyed bc it' so strange...
a) today's price action is so annoying
b) the only way to make it sense is a 60-70 pt move from here to Friday's close
c) otherwise, don't know what the tight coiling of regressions here mean
d) it's already tried to sell off but couldn't
e) so logically, we should close Friday all time high
f) but I am really annoyed bc it' so strange...
Comment:
g) I don't an answer for it
h) I got back in bc I am willing to put up with a retrace to 2061 if it means my 2280 target is still on the table for 01/24
i) and it is... so.. I don't know
h) I got back in bc I am willing to put up with a retrace to 2061 if it means my 2280 target is still on the table for 01/24
i) and it is... so.. I don't know
Comment:
12/28 1:18 PM ET 2069.XX... THIS POST HAS ENDED, AND I CAN'T MAKE ANOTHER ONE...
a) why?
b) because my software that I personally wrote and coded is failing here
c) and I can't fix it...
d) it keeps saying spike to all time high since 2088
e) and it hasn't moved off that position despite price moving down almost 20 to 2069
f) so it's failing and I can't explain this one
g) so in order not to hurt any one, I AM SAYING THIS EXPLICITLY SO YOU CAN MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS
a) why?
b) because my software that I personally wrote and coded is failing here
c) and I can't fix it...
d) it keeps saying spike to all time high since 2088
e) and it hasn't moved off that position despite price moving down almost 20 to 2069
f) so it's failing and I can't explain this one
g) so in order not to hurt any one, I AM SAYING THIS EXPLICITLY SO YOU CAN MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS
Comment:
6:23 PM ET 2066.40 BE AWARE OF THESE 2 PATTTERNS:
Comment:
1:12 AM ET 12/29 last trading day for 2023 and...
a) my stupid regression software still wants 2128-2145 close tomorrow
b) I don't get it, dumb AF...
c) anyway, odds favor floor in as of right now
a) my stupid regression software still wants 2128-2145 close tomorrow
b) I don't get it, dumb AF...
c) anyway, odds favor floor in as of right now
Comment:
2:07 AM ET, 12/29 1974.XX, I see how it can, but...
a) CRAZY AF....
b) is this even real?
c) doesn't matter, I'm long term long
d) THAT IS NOT A RECOMENDATION
e) I am gambling a little bit here with my software
a) CRAZY AF....
b) is this even real?
c) doesn't matter, I'm long term long
d) THAT IS NOT A RECOMENDATION
e) I am gambling a little bit here with my software
Comment:
I need to revamp my software.
a) will be back bigger and better
b) and Happy New Year!
a) will be back bigger and better
b) and Happy New Year!
Comment:
4:13 AM TO BE CLEAR -
a) I don't know if low is in
b) this thing has some holes that I need to plug before doing this aing
c) because if you can't trust it, what's the point?
a) I don't know if low is in
b) this thing has some holes that I need to plug before doing this aing
c) because if you can't trust it, what's the point?
Comment:
THIS POST HAS ENDED - THIS IS WHAT I AM DOING NOW: '
a) but let me preface by saying..
b) this is not a forecast, this is my own personal preparation
c) for the few people that want to to know where I am at
a) but let me preface by saying..
b) this is not a forecast, this is my own personal preparation
c) for the few people that want to to know where I am at
Related Ideas
a) so I see 2073, 71, even 69 next
b) this needs to happen by 10 PM ET to midnight
c) after which we will have 2 MOVES UP tomorrow
d) one overnight to 5 AM ET
e) the second one during NY session and will top before NY closes 4 PM ET
f) this is STILL CONTINUING the staircase pattern I talked about
g) at this time, it is not obvious we can close above 2100 for Friday
h) this is just what my instincts say
i) and my instincts have a horrible track record