#006 GOLD 48-HOUR EXTRAPOLATION
SUMMARY - This is the 12/18, 15-min bar, 48 hour generic CONTINUOUS EVOLVING FORECAST for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. Continuing from the previous post LIVE #12!, bears forgot to show up Sunday night and bulls intend to make them pay by moving to 2100 by 8 AM ET WEDNESDAY 12/20. This is a generic extrapolation without the usual detailing and "regression reconciliation" because there's just no time for it. Sometimes, you do hours of detailing and NOTHING HAPPENS. Sometimes, you just nail a move like a college freshman because you've been around.
WARNING- As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. Be aware that there is AN ACTUAL LIMIT on the number updates I can do per post, so I am not going be super detailed. That said, it's been working out anyway.
DETAILS - Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them occasionally as frame of reference, but most importantly, as evidence that legit forecasting help you win day in and day out. And if my forecasts help you make REAL MONEY, help me out by spreading the word to people you know PERSONALLY to keep this thing going. Please hit like/boost button.
WARNING- As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. Be aware that there is AN ACTUAL LIMIT on the number updates I can do per post, so I am not going be super detailed. That said, it's been working out anyway.
DETAILS - Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them occasionally as frame of reference, but most importantly, as evidence that legit forecasting help you win day in and day out. And if my forecasts help you make REAL MONEY, help me out by spreading the word to people you know PERSONALLY to keep this thing going. Please hit like/boost button.
Comment:
c) no, 4-min bars say 2020 is the floor... so FWIW
Comment:
d) maybe in the afternoon, a bit lower?...
Comment:
12/18 11:30 AM ET - I HAVE ASKED ONCE, IS IT TIME FOR PAY PACK? AND I SAID:
a) I believe so.
b) I think so,
c) and I think I know so.
d) I wasn't far off as we bounced off 1976 and moved for 2048.
12/18 11:32 AM ET - I ASK AGAIN, IS IT TIME FOR PAY BACK?
a) I believe so, I think so, and I think I know so.
b) What then does that mean for us here?
c) There are 3 rallies reamaining from here to 03/08/2024:
1) from 2023 (now) to 2150
2) from roughly 2070 to roughly 2400
3) from roughly 2280 to roughly 2700
d) we are starting the first one RIGHT THIS SECOND
a) I believe so.
b) I think so,
c) and I think I know so.
d) I wasn't far off as we bounced off 1976 and moved for 2048.
12/18 11:32 AM ET - I ASK AGAIN, IS IT TIME FOR PAY BACK?
a) I believe so, I think so, and I think I know so.
b) What then does that mean for us here?
c) There are 3 rallies reamaining from here to 03/08/2024:
1) from 2023 (now) to 2150
2) from roughly 2070 to roughly 2400
3) from roughly 2280 to roughly 2700
d) we are starting the first one RIGHT THIS SECOND
Comment:
12/18 12:53 PM ET 2030.XX IT HAS BEGUN!
1) in the words of Seth McFarlane...
2) we are going to live forever!!
1) in the words of Seth McFarlane...
2) we are going to live forever!!
Comment:
1:51 PM ET 2026.XX TIME TARGET
1) first high we look for is 2057-2062
2? between 10 PM tonight and 5 AM Tuesday
1) first high we look for is 2057-2062
2? between 10 PM tonight and 5 AM Tuesday
Comment:
2:29, SO REMEMBER WHEN I CALLED 46 PT SPIKE SIGNAL?
a) in chart above where the arrow is pointing at for FOMC last week
b) bc the structure made that possible
c) we dont' have that now, so it's going to be different
d) that's why I said 2100 by Wed 8 AM in the last post
e) bc THE BLACK WAVE IS STILL TURNING, when it does this
f) zig zag for sure
b) bc the structure made that possible
c) we dont' have that now, so it's going to be different
d) that's why I said 2100 by Wed 8 AM in the last post
e) bc THE BLACK WAVE IS STILL TURNING, when it does this
f) zig zag for sure
Comment:
6:30 PM ET 2026.22 NOT MOVING AND SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
a) this is not a good sign
b) bc these setups either happen or something else will happen
c) so my hard stop is 2024. 50 from here on out
a) this is not a good sign
b) bc these setups either happen or something else will happen
c) so my hard stop is 2024. 50 from here on out
Comment:
d) 6:33 PM ET 2025.89, I am out
e) I want to see it break out first before I buy it gain
f) why?
g) there's no reason it's not flying up right now and that's suspicious
h) just watit it out
e) I want to see it break out first before I buy it gain
f) why?
g) there's no reason it's not flying up right now and that's suspicious
h) just watit it out
Comment:
7:30 2027.91, but should be 2035-36 and it is not
a) so that's not bullish
b) its dead center of this triangle that is going have to break
c) I am suspicious when a a strong setup doesn't move because it's saying fake out
d) but i am checking to see if I am missing a bearish setup ....
a) so that's not bullish
b) its dead center of this triangle that is going have to break
c) I am suspicious when a a strong setup doesn't move because it's saying fake out
d) but i am checking to see if I am missing a bearish setup ....
Comment:
B\Y THE WAY --
e) I have a family member in surgery tomorrow and I have to stay with them at the hospital
f) I am not going to be a lot of help until I get back
e) I have a family member in surgery tomorrow and I have to stay with them at the hospital
f) I am not going to be a lot of help until I get back
Comment:
6:35 PM ET 2029.XX, I am convinced we have bullish move
a) I DON'T KNOW WHAT IT SHOULD LOOK LIKE BECAUSE IT IS MOVING SLOW
b) but when this wave turns completely it can't hang low forever
c) at some point it has to move to 2050s, 60s and so on...
a) I DON'T KNOW WHAT IT SHOULD LOOK LIKE BECAUSE IT IS MOVING SLOW
b) but when this wave turns completely it can't hang low forever
c) at some point it has to move to 2050s, 60s and so on...
Comment:
7:45 PM SO PICK A STOP
a) I can't explain the reason for being slow here
b) and for the purposes of what we do, SLOW IS ALMOST SAME AS WRONG
c) so I am just regular long with a stop
d) not leveraged long or any of that stuff
a) I can't explain the reason for being slow here
b) and for the purposes of what we do, SLOW IS ALMOST SAME AS WRONG
c) so I am just regular long with a stop
d) not leveraged long or any of that stuff
Comment:
10:25 PM ET CONSIDER:
a) for chart above
b) we are going to 2100 this week, ok?
c) it's not today, not tomorrow AND NOT FRIDAY
d) that leaves only one route left
e) give me an hour and that usually means 2 hours
b) we are going to 2100 this week, ok?
c) it's not today, not tomorrow AND NOT FRIDAY
d) that leaves only one route left
e) give me an hour and that usually means 2 hours
Comment:
10:44 PM, BY THE WAY, I'M NOT BLIND TO THE BEAR ROUTE
a) as I stated this morning..
b) bears DID NOT SHOW UP WHEN THEY HAD EVERYTHING GOING FOR THEM
c) it's different now...
d) it is:
1) how do we get to 2100
2) then check down
3) and then 2150
4) and check down again
5) and the setup for 01-10-24 start of rally
6) we only have 3 weeks left so 15 trading days
7) AND ALL OF THAT HAS TO FIT
8) if there is more retrace down..
9) BEARS HAVE 24 HOURS TO DO IT AND NOT MORE THAN THAT
a) as I stated this morning..
b) bears DID NOT SHOW UP WHEN THEY HAD EVERYTHING GOING FOR THEM
c) it's different now...
d) it is:
1) how do we get to 2100
2) then check down
3) and then 2150
4) and check down again
5) and the setup for 01-10-24 start of rally
6) we only have 3 weeks left so 15 trading days
7) AND ALL OF THAT HAS TO FIT
8) if there is more retrace down..
9) BEARS HAVE 24 HOURS TO DO IT AND NOT MORE THAN THAT
Comment:
10) and as to why those things need to happen...
a) gold is in a bull setup
b) but the price action from 2146 to 1976 has "twisted" the trends in a way...
c) that need to be "reset for" bull market
d) the play book is an old one... long into the first cut (MID MARCH)
e) and despite what it looks like...
f) THERE ARE ONLY SO MANY ROUTES TO MAKE SOMETHING HAPPEN...
g) and we are approaching a zone where price has to do certain things in order to have a bullish setup
a) gold is in a bull setup
b) but the price action from 2146 to 1976 has "twisted" the trends in a way...
c) that need to be "reset for" bull market
d) the play book is an old one... long into the first cut (MID MARCH)
e) and despite what it looks like...
f) THERE ARE ONLY SO MANY ROUTES TO MAKE SOMETHING HAPPEN...
g) and we are approaching a zone where price has to do certain things in order to have a bullish setup
Comment:
11) consider:
a) in chart above with a specific ratio of trends (labeled x, 2x, 4x)
b) just think of them like 50-100-200 day MAs... THEY ARE NOT - BUT SAME DIFFERENCE
c) IF YOU ARE EXPECTING A MASSIVE RALLY... number of ratios have to be in order...
d) for example, 50-100-200, 60-120-240, 70-140-280 ...
e) at the same time, 50-60-70 DOES NOT HAVE TO BE IN ORDER... but THE RATIOS DO....
f) for massive rallies it has to be 6 or 7 out of 8 sets...
g) bc of this stupid retrace from 2146,we need get this straighten out
h) and the amount of extra time or room for error is approaching zero
b) just think of them like 50-100-200 day MAs... THEY ARE NOT - BUT SAME DIFFERENCE
c) IF YOU ARE EXPECTING A MASSIVE RALLY... number of ratios have to be in order...
d) for example, 50-100-200, 60-120-240, 70-140-280 ...
e) at the same time, 50-60-70 DOES NOT HAVE TO BE IN ORDER... but THE RATIOS DO....
f) for massive rallies it has to be 6 or 7 out of 8 sets...
g) bc of this stupid retrace from 2146,we need get this straighten out
h) and the amount of extra time or room for error is approaching zero
Comment:
i) BUT THIS RULE WORKS BOTH WAYS...
j) meaning if bears want to stop the setup
k) they also have to show up ON TIME...
j) meaning if bears want to stop the setup
k) they also have to show up ON TIME...
Comment:
12/18 11:51 PM ET, THAT'S A WRAP, HERE IS RALLY STARTING IN 14 HOURS:
Related Ideas
a) that would be a perfect entry
b) from where I stand