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Brent: forecast for Oct 11 - Oct 15

Short
SKILLING:XBRUSD   Brent Crude Oil
Prospects for oil prices, to a greater extent, would add up to their growth or at least consolidation in the range of ~ $ 78–82. Deficit reduction is progressing more slowly than planned. The oil market is still in deficit, but not as before in view of the beginning of a small, but still consistent, softening of quotas by OPEC +. The decision by OPEC and its allies (OPEC +) on Monday to maintain the planned increase in oil production was prompted by fears that demand and prices could weaken.

Their fears are not without reason. The current oil and gas trend indicates a likely decline in the near term. The almost vertical takeoff of gas and coal quotations, and more recently oil prices, can hardly be considered sustainable. Such market movements are more likely to end in decline than in further growth.

With such sharp price surges as now, investors and traders should be prepared for verbal interventions by the buying and exporting countries. One of these statements was made by Iraqi oil minister (about a fair price for oil in the range of $ 75-80). In addition, it is very likely that the United States, China and India will try to stabilize the situation in their markets.

Also, we must not forget about the daily pressure on oil from alternative energy. On the long-term horizon, the fall in demand looms more and more due to the energy transition. This is a strong incentive to ramp up oil and gas production now in order to invest revenues in the future.
In general, prices are expected to roll back to the level of ~ $ 78.90 for the coming week.

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