Good morning, traders. It seems that right as I got yesterday's update out Bitcoin popped for $1000+. It caught a lot of traders by surprised, but not our premium Discord members. We had already been discussing entries that morning and many of them got in right before it popped. Price topped out about $70 above my expectation and has now retraced almost perfectly to where I expected. But that doesn't mean price is done correcting yet. Currently, it is consolidating around the M15 pivot/3+ week blue TR support but it has not tested previous resistance ($10000) that it popped through yesterday as support. It does not have to test it as such, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did. For those interested in Fib levels, this morning's swing low was the 38.2% retracement of what is believed to be wave 3. So, as a wave 4, the retracement is spot-on to what we should generally expect. I see a lot of folks calling for lower lows now, but I would not be so quick to jump in just yet. There is no confirmation of any kind of large continuation down. As a matter of fact, price is doing exactly what you should expect (i.e. consolidating at the resistance of the large TF TR after printing a Spring.
The 1H price continues to use the bottom of the large TF TR as support and the 21 EMA as resistance. Stoch RSI remains oversold but is attempting to push out of that level. Generally, based on the first 3 waves, we would expect wave 5 to target the green box just below the red 2018 TR resistance. However, I have a feeling that if price continues higher then it will likely overextend wave 5 which should give us a target of the orange box between the R1 pivot and the top of the blue TR. Along the way, we can expect resistance at the pivot.
The 4H TF shows us bearish divergence on RSI which is currently playing out. How badly will it continue to do so? Nobody can know that, but so far we see price finding support on the 21 EMA and the blue TR support. RSI broke through both resistances, so after this bear div plays out there isn't a lot to keep it in check until it becomes overbought. Stoch RSI is overbought and trending down which gives it enough room to support a wave 5 movement as outlined above. For those interested, the swing high on Bitmex yesterday was a TD 9 on the 4H.
This bear div can also be found on the 6H TF. If you make this chart yours and zoom to the 6H you will see that price has really done nothing more than bounce from the bottom of the flag to the flag's EQ. We usually expect a pullback at that point before price pushes through that resistance and that is what we are currently seeing. I have also noted a possible inverted head and shoulders that may be printing. To be valid, we need to see price push through the descending black neckline with expanding volume and increasing candle spread. Based on the height of the IHS, that would provide a target of the orange box. Those traders who are more risk adverse could wait for 6H RSI to close above its resistance before entering. As always, this never guarantees price will continue higher, but it eliminates a lot of risk associated with entry.
Let's not forget that price recently moved above the large descending channel resistance and providing a target of the green box. Also, daily just printed a large hidden bullish divergence as RSI closed above its resistance that has been in place since the ~$14000 swing high. As such, it amazes me that traders are so gosh darn sure that price is heading lower from here.
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Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!"
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
The 1H price continues to use the bottom of the large TF TR as support and the 21 EMA as resistance. Stoch RSI remains oversold but is attempting to push out of that level. Generally, based on the first 3 waves, we would expect wave 5 to target the green box just below the red 2018 TR resistance. However, I have a feeling that if price continues higher then it will likely overextend wave 5 which should give us a target of the orange box between the R1 pivot and the top of the blue TR. Along the way, we can expect resistance at the pivot.
The 4H TF shows us bearish divergence on RSI which is currently playing out. How badly will it continue to do so? Nobody can know that, but so far we see price finding support on the 21 EMA and the blue TR support. RSI broke through both resistances, so after this bear div plays out there isn't a lot to keep it in check until it becomes overbought. Stoch RSI is overbought and trending down which gives it enough room to support a wave 5 movement as outlined above. For those interested, the swing high on Bitmex yesterday was a TD 9 on the 4H.
This bear div can also be found on the 6H TF. If you make this chart yours and zoom to the 6H you will see that price has really done nothing more than bounce from the bottom of the flag to the flag's EQ. We usually expect a pullback at that point before price pushes through that resistance and that is what we are currently seeing. I have also noted a possible inverted head and shoulders that may be printing. To be valid, we need to see price push through the descending black neckline with expanding volume and increasing candle spread. Based on the height of the IHS, that would provide a target of the orange box. Those traders who are more risk adverse could wait for 6H RSI to close above its resistance before entering. As always, this never guarantees price will continue higher, but it eliminates a lot of risk associated with entry.
Let's not forget that price recently moved above the large descending channel resistance and providing a target of the green box. Also, daily just printed a large hidden bullish divergence as RSI closed above its resistance that has been in place since the ~$14000 swing high. As such, it amazes me that traders are so gosh darn sure that price is heading lower from here.
_____________________________________________________________
Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!"
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
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M15 TF
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H4 TF
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H6 TF
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D1 TF
