Welcome! I've been learning/practing technical analysis for awhile now and have recently learned a lot about price action. I plan to publish my thoughts at least once a week. My goal is to practice, improve, learn and hopefully share some knowledge with the community. Please feel free to challenge and question me (respectfully). This is also not financial advice in anyway and is meant for entertainment. PSA: Don't look for advice from random people online!
Monthly:
We are about to print the July candle(today). You can see the month was definitely bullish. Right now BTC is under some selling pressure but the June high is still holding. I still think BTC can ultimately challenge the April and May highs in the coming weeks but let's see how price action plays out. Failure to hold above the June high would definitely be concerning. I will update this idea if the monthly close changes anything drastically.
Weekly:
BTC has been struggling with resistance at a bearish 1W order block. BTC has been consolidating right below this area and has held above the June high so far. Failure to hold the June high could be a sign of some more significant downside and I would consider looking for a short at that point.
Daily:
On the daily BTC has held the support area highlighted and has tried to break through overhead resistance. The series of lower highs in the resistance zone is a little concerning but the long BTC consolidates in this range the less overhead supply there is. Hopefully this leads to a break above the 8400-8500 level. Conversely, there have been a couple savage sell offs into the support area. Another strong sell off over the next week could end up sinking this rally. Testing a support/resistance area 3+ times often leads to it failing as supply/demand normally dries up.
4H:
The 4 hour chart shows these tests of resistance and support quite well. The initial push into the area led to the left swing high. From there BTC fell into a "Bart" swing low and then formed another lower swing high. It is currently forming another "Bart" swing low(hopefully) and trying to push back above $8k. I'd like to see a successful break and consolidation above the overhead resistance. If BTC gets another sell off into the support zone I think there could be some more downside in store and perhaps the long term downtrend continues.
Hourly:
The hourly chart provides a little more detail to the current price action. In the consolidation prior to this sell off BTC has some nice support around 8100-8120. I'll be curious to see how price acts if it gets back near those levels. Weakness there could be a bearish sign as strong selling was found in the 8200-8400 before. The same can be said about the range high as well.
Trade Scenario 1:
I'm currently in a long position with a cost of 7918 and I've set my stop loss at 7779. I'm targeting 8500 to start taking profits. I will also most likely move my stop up some(probably at least to 7840ish range) as it is somewhat loose at the moment. This trade provides a great 4-1 risk reward so I was willing to play it a little looser to hopefully capture a good upside opportunity.
Trade Scenario 2:
This one is a little bit ambiguous. If we get a weak rally or fail to break overhead resistance I will look for short opportunities with the thought being prior support will not hold. The exact levels are to be determined but I could see the opportunity to short becoming available in the 8100-8400 range. I will post updates to the exact set up I'm looking for if I think I am going to trade this scenario.
Monthly:
We are about to print the July candle(today). You can see the month was definitely bullish. Right now BTC is under some selling pressure but the June high is still holding. I still think BTC can ultimately challenge the April and May highs in the coming weeks but let's see how price action plays out. Failure to hold above the June high would definitely be concerning. I will update this idea if the monthly close changes anything drastically.
Weekly:
BTC has been struggling with resistance at a bearish 1W order block. BTC has been consolidating right below this area and has held above the June high so far. Failure to hold the June high could be a sign of some more significant downside and I would consider looking for a short at that point.
Daily:
On the daily BTC has held the support area highlighted and has tried to break through overhead resistance. The series of lower highs in the resistance zone is a little concerning but the long BTC consolidates in this range the less overhead supply there is. Hopefully this leads to a break above the 8400-8500 level. Conversely, there have been a couple savage sell offs into the support area. Another strong sell off over the next week could end up sinking this rally. Testing a support/resistance area 3+ times often leads to it failing as supply/demand normally dries up.
4H:
The 4 hour chart shows these tests of resistance and support quite well. The initial push into the area led to the left swing high. From there BTC fell into a "Bart" swing low and then formed another lower swing high. It is currently forming another "Bart" swing low(hopefully) and trying to push back above $8k. I'd like to see a successful break and consolidation above the overhead resistance. If BTC gets another sell off into the support zone I think there could be some more downside in store and perhaps the long term downtrend continues.
Hourly:
The hourly chart provides a little more detail to the current price action. In the consolidation prior to this sell off BTC has some nice support around 8100-8120. I'll be curious to see how price acts if it gets back near those levels. Weakness there could be a bearish sign as strong selling was found in the 8200-8400 before. The same can be said about the range high as well.
Trade Scenario 1:
I'm currently in a long position with a cost of 7918 and I've set my stop loss at 7779. I'm targeting 8500 to start taking profits. I will also most likely move my stop up some(probably at least to 7840ish range) as it is somewhat loose at the moment. This trade provides a great 4-1 risk reward so I was willing to play it a little looser to hopefully capture a good upside opportunity.
Trade Scenario 2:
This one is a little bit ambiguous. If we get a weak rally or fail to break overhead resistance I will look for short opportunities with the thought being prior support will not hold. The exact levels are to be determined but I could see the opportunity to short becoming available in the 8100-8400 range. I will post updates to the exact set up I'm looking for if I think I am going to trade this scenario.
Comment:
I was stopped out of this trade. After looking at the chart further I definitely didn't follow my own advice of selling into a weak rally and shorting. You can see here on the hourly where price gets rejected at the weekly open and fails to close above:
Would of been a good place to sell.
Would of been a good place to sell.
Comment:
Trading out of the bottom of this block. 2:1 RRR and will start to take profit in the 7500 range. If we don't bounce hard out of this area I will most like take all my profit at that point.
Trading out of the bottom of this block. 2:1 RRR and will start to take profit in the 7500 range. If we don't bounce hard out of this area I will most like take all my profit at that point.
Comment:
I took 1/3 of my position off at 7480. Looking for a close above Weekly OB EQ. If we don't get that I will close. Will close if we drop below 7480-7500.
Comment:
As soon as I posted this update BTC dropped to 7441. This might have been a stop run. Watching this close closely. If we don't come back over 7480-7500 soon I close.
Comment:
Undecided with last 1/3.