botje11

Bitcoin's Big ABC Correction or Trend Change? Part 7

BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
Bigger picture plan is still going almost perfect, with the current movement from past week creating a lot of confusion again, from what i can see here on TV, which is perfect. Because this means we will have more bears again who can short these prices, so their money can be used to fuel another rally. Because that is what crypto is all about, using other peoples money to fuel rallies. Unfortunately, there not much more to it, we have seen that in 2018 as well many times even. Current bounce is still holding, so i am having a little bit of doubt to whether we will make that final drop to 4800ish or not. But it's still my assumption, because another good drop would lure in a lot of extra bears again shorting the lows.

The blue line on the right, where i showed the fake out 10 days is playing out so far and i have no reason to change this view. Only thing i have changed, as mentioned in my short term analysis, is thinking the low might be more around 4800 instead of 4700.
Volume profile is also very good at this point, volume of the rally was much higher than the volume on these drops. I have had many questions/comments about the dropping volume past week. After such a big rally like this, it's a bullish sign, not bearish . Only when we start to see sell volume clearly increase and gets bigger than the buy volume (on the daily), that is the moment to become bearish .

Something i mentioned a few times now:
To understand the rest of the chart, please read my previous analysis. Most important maybe to keep in mind is this:
Of course anything can happen, but i think those chances are like 20%. A break of 4800 would like increase that to 40% and below 4700 it will start to get dangerous.


So lets say we start to drop from 5K to 4800, but we see a huge sell volume candle on the hourly charts, that becomes the moment to be careful. Otherwise, i see no reason at all to become bearish here. As long as BTC is above 4800 and ETH above 155/153, the skies are blue and the sun is shining.

About possible targets, still the same as i mentioned a few days ago:
Assuming it will all play out, it's hard to say what the potential is. I have a few possible targets, which are 5900/6500/6900. But these are a bit subjective, but worth having them prepared. Normally, the 80% chance i mentioned for seeing another rally, should have a minimum above the previous but should at least reach like 5600/5800. A lot will depend on how strong the breakout would be when breaking 5200/5400.



Part of the previous analysis:
Because this move up was so strong and with high volume , it's almost sure that we will see another wave up before any big correction happens. Also something to keep in mind, since wave 2 was very slow it usually says that wave 4 is much faster. So while wave 2 took like 2 months, wave 4 should be a matter of weeks. Now short term anything can happen, we can see a fake break up to like 5400 and then dump (a shake out move) like the blue line, or we simply just move down again from these levels. I think it's very unlikely to see a continuation of the rally within a day or 2, would be much too soon IMO . If it does happen, this could be that long term V shape low, which would mean the bear market is very likely behind us already. I think this is very unlikely. That would mean this market is as strong as in 2017.


For the rest, if you want to be more aware of my every thought, take the effort to read the older analysis as well. I have noticed a lot of people only look at my latest posts and forget about everything i have mentioned before. I have everything in my mind since i am the source, but i can't keep repeating everything all the time even if i want, would become a 10 page analysis each time. This is the reason why i do these series, like the Part 7 now.
Short term 5150/5200 will be a first big level to break, if this zone breaks, i will probably need to adjust my short term view (about expecting one more drop to 4800ish)

Previous part 6:


Part 1 of this series:
Comment: New Bitcoin analysis:

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I think the CME expiration date has a major impact on BTC's trend transition.

Reply
Thank you for fantastic charting, allowing us know many different possibilities of the market.
I tried to train my self to charting well, but I noticed I would rather check out you and other master's arts.
I do day trading, so entry signal is very important. I find Divergence serve this pretty well.
I summarized all outstanding Divergence entry points for BTCUSD since 20000 summit, in my new idea
"Is Divergence the King or Queen of Crypto Technical Analysis?".
Welcome vote:


Reply
BTC is more bullish than @botje11 thinks :)
+1 Reply
Hey guys check this out, it could be a possibility.

Reply
thanks for your work!
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I'm not ruling out the possibility Bitcoin could go down, but you bears who are looking for a major drop might be disappointed. And worse, if you don't get the drop you are looking for you may end up buying in at much higher prices or be left behind wishing you didn't wait. Don't be greedy. Greed loses in the end.
+6 Reply
@kardia, waiting. no point buying here... too risky. ill wait for > 6000. i want to see a nice daily close above 6140 with a ton of volume.
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kardia volmaandcan
@volmaandcan, will it make a difference 3 to 5 years from now? You have to think long term in this market (it's better for taxes). Day trading is for people who lose money.
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@kardia, Yes, so there is no hurry... BTC could still dump to 4k levels or even 3k... you practically buying at resistance here. Better to wait for a clean break of 6k or hope for lower prices
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