Mikey_Scali

Bearish fears looming or are traders losing there edge??

ASX:XJO   S&P/ASX 200 Index
After this thoroughly rough week i have noticed that among traders on the ASX fear looms have been spreading, from untrusty discord chats all the way to journalist articles. However market movements to the downside are just as normal as bullish days. In fact they are often needed to bring the market and all who trades back to reality.

This post is to do outline the possibilities of the future and what traders may come to expect. Of course this is not financial advice and what I say should only be taken as a grain of salt.
I will mention both Technical analysis features aswell as Fundamental.

In regards to technical analysis the ASX 200 tells a variety of stories and possibility's.
For example it appears the market is forming an ascending triangle , and for all those that trade this pattern it is well known that once price action breaks the triangle it will determine the future price direction.
Therefore if the price breaks above the top of the triangle it can be said it will result in a bullish run, likewise a break on the bottom on the triangle singles a drop in price.
What I take from this that within the upcoming weeks will determine the direction of the market so "only time will tell".

In regards to resistance and support levels I would say there multiple significant levels that will need to be broken for future market movement.
As shown below if the upcoming market is bullish I would only confirm this once the price level "6851.5" is broken and then treated as a support level . My reasoning for this is the past months have struggled staying above this level and can inhibit the progression of the post crash bull run.

A final significant level I would outline as a key support level will be "6370 " this level has not been broken since the march crash and has only been broken with strong price action. These levels will be posted below for clarity


Despite what retail investors have been saying it appears that a bearish outlook is not all round as the XVI is at "normal" levels and does not show any signs of distress or volatility .
Which brings me to a hypothesis that the noise I hear is actually new traders who have a lack of experience in the market being distressed with "red days".


To do with fundamental research from looking at director transactions a large majority have been buying stocks in moderately large volume . Where as of the time i am writing this there is a current 1:11 sell vs buy ratio. What this tells me inside investors have little fear of what the market outlook is and rather care about the quality of the company.


Overall I have a neutral outlook on the Australian Market where a trend in either direction will be no surprise. As a trader we should focus on trading what we know and sticking to well developed thought out plans.

I hope this can benefit traders like myself. If you found my brief research helpful a like will be much appreciated :)

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