What a dead looking chart, right? XRP has basically flatlined for months, just above an enormous (and important) demand zone. The ultimate oscillator (red) recently crashed below all potential supports, without price breaking down at all. This can indicate either incoming weakness or a sudden loss of selling momentum. In either case, I expect the move will be massive. Yeah, XRP has always been one of my worst calls. I was quite bullish on it in 2018-2019, but wasn't analyzing the historical data as best as I could. I ignored the fact that XRP has stagnated for years in the past, and it often does its own thing. Until the charts say otherwise, XRP has still far outperformed Bitcoin, if you had bought it prior to March, 2017. Most investors' timeframes are relatively long, so there's still a chance for it to make a comeback.
Instead of just depending on the Bitcoin pairing, I also like to look at XRP/ETH (righthand chart), as it can give a clue as to where XRP will go. Looking at this pairing did allow me to anticipate the move in September, 2018. I think that if it can get back above 0.0013000, trading activity may shift at least temporarily away from ETH and towards XRP. This can send it up towards the long term supply zones on both the XRP/BTC and XRP/ETH pairings on my chart (pink box). XRP flips ETH in market share at around 0.0027.
The "Decision Zone" on this chart shows where I think most traders make their choices about buying or selling XRP. When XRP stagnates like this, it's an opportunity for some to bet money on a long term price increase. Based on volume, it appears that those who wanted to exit, already did so many months ago in the Decision Zone.
Another clue: the MACD. All moving averages have flatlined, so the MACD shows historically low volatility expansion. Based on Moving Averages, it can be considered that XRP/BTC is now neutral, if not a bit bearish, considering it cannot get back above the 200 day MA. Volume is also the lowest it's been in years. Clearly, the market is waiting for something. Based on the size of the demand zone below, we can see that XRP has a long way to fall. But why did it not just fall all the way down there in August, 2019? It's very possible that XRP has simply been in an extended accumulation period. What, in this case, would send it down to the demand zone? Perhaps a ruling about XRP's classification as a security would do it. A Bitcoin price explosion and rise in dominance can also do it. I can also see it happening if Bitcoin breaks below $3K suddenly. It's surprising to me that XRP has not broken down on the ETH pairing, but there was a large flash crash event on that chart.
Long story short:
If XRP/ETH breaks down below current support, I think the XRP/BTC pairing can also decline heavily, perhaps by 50% or more.
If XRP/ETH holds this current support, particularly with ETH continuing to look strong, that tells me that XRP can test much higher levels, as it likes to do.
If XRP/BTC cannot break above the 200d MA and gain some volume, XRP may need to test some low levels not seen since December, 2017. But the end of 2017 was the last time the Ultimate Oscillator was even close to being this low. This could mean that XRP's long period of stagnation is close to ending. Of course, it may just be an anomaly, and perhaps XRP will continue to stagnate and head to new lows against the U.S. Dollar. Time will tell, but I'm posting this now because I think there's decent probability that we will observe a large move in the near future.
This is not financial advice. This is meant for speculation, education, and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
Instead of just depending on the Bitcoin pairing, I also like to look at XRP/ETH (righthand chart), as it can give a clue as to where XRP will go. Looking at this pairing did allow me to anticipate the move in September, 2018. I think that if it can get back above 0.0013000, trading activity may shift at least temporarily away from ETH and towards XRP. This can send it up towards the long term supply zones on both the XRP/BTC and XRP/ETH pairings on my chart (pink box). XRP flips ETH in market share at around 0.0027.
The "Decision Zone" on this chart shows where I think most traders make their choices about buying or selling XRP. When XRP stagnates like this, it's an opportunity for some to bet money on a long term price increase. Based on volume, it appears that those who wanted to exit, already did so many months ago in the Decision Zone.
Another clue: the MACD. All moving averages have flatlined, so the MACD shows historically low volatility expansion. Based on Moving Averages, it can be considered that XRP/BTC is now neutral, if not a bit bearish, considering it cannot get back above the 200 day MA. Volume is also the lowest it's been in years. Clearly, the market is waiting for something. Based on the size of the demand zone below, we can see that XRP has a long way to fall. But why did it not just fall all the way down there in August, 2019? It's very possible that XRP has simply been in an extended accumulation period. What, in this case, would send it down to the demand zone? Perhaps a ruling about XRP's classification as a security would do it. A Bitcoin price explosion and rise in dominance can also do it. I can also see it happening if Bitcoin breaks below $3K suddenly. It's surprising to me that XRP has not broken down on the ETH pairing, but there was a large flash crash event on that chart.
Long story short:
If XRP/ETH breaks down below current support, I think the XRP/BTC pairing can also decline heavily, perhaps by 50% or more.
If XRP/ETH holds this current support, particularly with ETH continuing to look strong, that tells me that XRP can test much higher levels, as it likes to do.
If XRP/BTC cannot break above the 200d MA and gain some volume, XRP may need to test some low levels not seen since December, 2017. But the end of 2017 was the last time the Ultimate Oscillator was even close to being this low. This could mean that XRP's long period of stagnation is close to ending. Of course, it may just be an anomaly, and perhaps XRP will continue to stagnate and head to new lows against the U.S. Dollar. Time will tell, but I'm posting this now because I think there's decent probability that we will observe a large move in the near future.
This is not financial advice. This is meant for speculation, education, and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
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Looks like it might want to break to the upside. Decent volume increase here and nice bounce off the bottom for the oscillators. Needs to invalidate these potential descending triangles and sustain here. Otherwise, it can be another fakeout.
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Looks like it was a fakeout. Now the oscillator is showing a pretty serious divergence. I do think it's fairly likely XRP at least briefly tests that demand zone. It'll be interesting to see what happens.
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The weekly looks worrisome though. Oscillators show that it can violently break down and sustain that move. However, if the MACD can cross the zero line while maintaining horizontal support, that would be a good buy signal.
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If we look at the poloniex chart (more price history) we can see that the oscillators actually moved up as price went down prior to the 2017 rally. This means that it could simply also just pump from here.
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For XRP to remain long term bullish, it would make sense to hold this level as support, since the peaks were roughly twice as high in 2017-2018, as the peak in 2015.
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Here's an update. Looks like XRP has ventured well into the demand zone at this point. On the Poloniex chart, you can see how things are looking very similar to the slow bleed prior to the major 2017 bull run. Additionally, the Ultimate Oscillator (red) is moving UP while prices move down. This is a potentially huge bullish divergence.
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Unless something has really fundamentally changed for XRP, we can expect XRP to rise with a breakdown in Bitcoin dominance.
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Took a while, but there it is :)
