IanSinclaire

Dow - Monthly, SHORT; Upcoming 4-Digit Dow! (<9999)

Short
CBOT_MINI:YM1!   E-mini Dow Jones ($5) Futures
Get used to it!
Comment: Off of the Weekly...
... this is the most likely SHORT Entry Point.
Comment: Nasdaq Emini 4hr.
Comment: SP500 Emini 4hr.
Comment: 4hr.
Comment:
Comment:
Comment: DJI (Dow) / NIKKEI225 Spread


A "devastating" SHORT!!!
Comment: Here is an other version...
a difference without distinction.
Comment: In short, we fully expect US Market Capitalization to decline by 2/3 by the end of this investment cycle! (An abject, generational and "complete devastation", one might observe.)
Ironically, that would be still nothing more than a garden-variety reversion to historical norms.
Comment: Her is the Daily chart for the DJIA / Nikkei225 ...

... to answer the question: Is this ready to go?...
Yes, it is!
Comment: "Extreme valuations mean extreme sensitivity

Prior to the bubble period of recent decades, the average dividend yield of the S&P 500 was close to 4%. During much of the post-war period, the combination of robust labor force growth, high productivity, and moderate inflation generated growth of more than 6% annually in nominal fundamentals. Add a 4% dividend yield to 6% nominal growth, and there’s the average 10% nominal return that investors associate with historical returns for the S&P 500, and imagine is still a relevant figure despite current valuation extremes.

In a world where the S&P 500 yields 4%, pushing long-term expected returns up by 0.5% requires a loss of (.04/.045-1=) just -11% in stock prices. But see, in today’s world where the S&P 500 yields 1.6%, pushing long-term expected returns up by that same 0.5% requires a loss of (.016/.021-1=) about -24%.

So it’s not enough to assume that extreme valuations will be sustained over the long-term. One also has to assume that there will be virtually no change at all in expected returns. That’s because even slight increases in expected returns from these valuations are likely to drive steep drawdowns in stock prices." - Hussman Funds

... while reminding ourselves that even with two Financial Bubbles, so far, S&P net returns lagged those of US T-Bills, including the 2000 and 2009 market tops!!
Comment: ... and here is the link to the active post...
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES1!/5...
... on the SHORT of the Century.
Comment:
Comment:
Comment: Wanna see the (imminent) future fate of Wall Street's "check mark shaped economic recovery"??...
Copper Weekly; "The base metal of economic expansions".
Has anyone ever seen an RSI Divergence ( the size of Montana) like this one, not to mention that perfect, massive H & S on the same RSI? - Text book.
Comment: Here is an other clue: Crude Oil
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CL2!/4...

Comments

Looks correct to me technically, but does it happen in real life?
Reply
IanSinclaire sgtraderjon
@sgtraderjon, It has, more than once. - And it will be just a normal, garden variety reversion to normal historical valuations. Nothing extraordinary.
Reply
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