This is an attempt to forecast the yield on treasury notes based on technical analysis. Clearly this is an incomplete analysis as fundamentals will also impact heavily. So let us consider the following a base case. First, there are trends in the yield. I would not call it cycles because they have different duration. Those thends tend to last a longer time, more...
A nice high-probability midpoint here (circled) - the midpoint here is the price level where strong upwards momentum suddenly erupted (50% fib level goes here). Target zone is roughly 121'05 and up. Looking for stocks to put in at least a swing low when bonds hit this level.
This is loooong term chart here, but the process in motion is a really dangerous one because it concerns the bond market that is supporting every bit of the investment process and credit liability throughout the market. This spread between german and US yielding is reaching long term dangerous levels of distortion and may lead to some credit troubles. Hope this...
The 10 Year has just bounced off near the 120'20'0 Resistance on 1D and based on the neutral 1W action (RSI = 46.325, STOCH = 54.180, Highs/Lows = 0.000), it should reverse towards the 119'02'5 support. Our short's TP is 119'09'0.
Regarding today's bond market behavior, I am reminded of the following words of wisdom mostly attributed to the economist John Maynard Keynes: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." From Trump's successful efforts in negotiating an end to a 70 year North/South Korean war, and denuclearization of NoKo, to the Fed raising interest...
Clear Channel Down on 4H after a 128'22 Lower High. TP 127'07 and 126'40 in extension.
20MA past 50MA seems to be an important indicator of the near-term upside of the 10Y yield. We have to be more cautious on equity market in May.. Long VIX.
Hey, hey, hey. Whats up followers? Are you all in cryptos still or already started following different, other assets since crypto world turned down? I would be interested to get your answers in commentary below, especially from new market participants who joined this crazy world in finance last year. Today I will take a look into stocks since this market can be on...
short on the us 10 year bond. mortgage rates increase when the us 10 year sells off so now is a good time to lock your rate if you're trying to refinance or buy a home.
Hello Traders! As many of you know I trade USD based currencies which are mostly influenced by the movement of the USD (DXY) Understanding the forces behind USD is critical to trading currencies correctly on a day to day basis. USD and the US 10 year are almost identical in nature. DXY is noted to be more sporadic. Generally speaking 10 year needs to signal...
10 year US notes can be trading at the end of a higher degree wave III. Specifically we see price unfolding an overlapping price movement within sub-wave 5 of three, that looks more and more like a EW ending diagonal. The speciality of this pattern is that it can cause a sharp a strong turn into the opposite direction, in our case into corrective wave IV, which...
US 10 YR CASH BOND - USB10YUSD potential LONG on 3m and m demand MONTHLY CHART:
Flash crash yesterday across equity markets pushed bonds higher for a brief reprieve in what has been a one way trend since september 2017. The low set in place yesterday came in at the bottom of the schiff pitchfork level & the current spike higher being capped at it's .382 level. Circled upside level is the .382 retrace off sept 2017 -> feb 2018, the .382 2007...
Good day traders! Today, let's look at the 10 year US notes. 10 year US notes are surely bearish, and are falling quite nicely, away from 124'25 level of a former swing high, labeled as wave 2. This acceleration in potential five waves will be labeled as red wave 3, usually the strongest and sharpest wave. That said, if we observe closely, we can see that the...
Make your own conclusions! Have a great day.
Let's turn around back to the 10yr treasury, What to think now? 1)Yes, prices (rates) are above its 50-EMA (support at 2.23%) makes sense. Historically, once it faces the bearish trend line is game over. 2)Is that reflected on USDJPY? We should never forget that rate hike can taste dovish at the end. 3)What if 10yr goes down and 2yr goes up?