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10yryields

How low can bonds go?Months ago, when 10 year bond futures were still 175, this weekly head and shoulders pattern jumped out at me. It looked so big and so bad I almost didn't want to believe it could play out. Now, as we approach 135, this massive, fully triggered pattern may be the best indication of where bonds are headed: 125. Sure, they could bounce a few times as they have done on the way down, but ultimately June 2011 lows are the likely stopping point on this decline. BONUS: As you can see, I didn't count the massive March 2020 wick or include it in the measured move. Better to be prepared for the UB to overshoot the 125 target by a little or a lot before staging any meaningful comeback.
CBOT:UB1!Short
by gr8fultrading
US 10 Year Treasury Yield: What's Next?Quick Analysis on 10 Year Treasury Yield on a 1M Linear Chart. 1) The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has been respecting a falling channel for multiple decades going back to the 1980s. 2) It is currently headed to the top trendline of the channel with a possibility to break in the coming months. 3) The measured move of the falling channel would bring it back to Pre-2008 ranges. 4) This may fall in line with the US Dollar strengthening (in the idea section below). 5) If US 10 Year Treasury Yield goes lower, there is not much more room for it to get to 0. What are your opinions on this? If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
TVC:TNX
by MillionaireEconomics
17
ARIASWAVE MARKET UPDATE - The Bear Market Correction Continues.In this video I go over the current waves within this bear market correction. Everything is still tracking within the parameters set up in my last Market Update. Not much change to report apart from a couple of waves within the Wave D Zig-Zag for the stock markets but still in line with the count. I am not expecting much to happen over the course of the next month or so due to the corrective process still unfolding. That means that even though OIL looks pretty bearish, it may still hang around these levels until small degree corrections unfold. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
TVC:DXY
by AriasWave
ARIASWAVE MARKET UPDATE - Markets Still in a Wave 2 Correction.In this video I update you based on my last Market Update this time with detailed labelling and explanations. I explain the way I believe the months ahead will unfold as we head into the end of the year. I expect volatility to begin increasing gradually right through the end of Wave 2 and into Wave 3 DOWN. (Stock Markets) The two things that I see continuing to skyrocket are interest rates\bond yields and the US Dollar. I do not believe we will see anything change until these patterns have completed. Understanding exactly how these fractal patterns evolve is the way I can make these assumptions. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
TVC:DXY
by AriasWave
1
ARIASWAVE MARKET UPDATE - It's Never All About One Chart.In this video I give you a rough outline as to what I believe is going on in the economy in general. There is obviously not enough time to go into all of the small details for every chart. It's more about understanding that the confluence on each chart leads to the overall view. That view is that we are heading into a very important time for the long term pattern for each chart. In summary it appears as though we have only just entered a bear market that will last years. My observation is that the more a corrective pattern expands the more it needs to correct. Corrections can be very deep and in some cases up to 100% over long periods of time. There is no set rule for how deep corrections retrace or for how long. The probability that you will give back any profits you make without proper knowledge of the waves is extremely high. Understanding how the waves operate means understanding that each wave component has very specific and unmistakable characteristics. An extremely strong US Dollar means that everything else will fall in value relative to it. What I mean by extremely strong it is that the US Dollar is in an impulsive 5-Wave move to the upside. Whether that be a Wave (C), 1, 3 or 5. If you have no idea which one then you must use the rules and process of elimination. I am not talking about the corrective portion of it like we have seen in the years between 1985 and 2021. But instead what we are seeing right now. If you do not know how to go through the process of elimination it is simply because you do not understand wave components or what to eliminate during that process. There are 4 stages of competence, I encourage you to rate yourself according to this model in order to gauge your understanding of the waves. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
TVC:DXY
by AriasWave
4
US02Y/US10Y bonds signals end to market rally. Bear FlattenerUS02Y up ~6% US10Y up ~0.12% Definition of a Bear Flattener = market go down. Is it a perfect indicator? Of course not. But the tendency is that bear flatteners mean money is coming out of the market and going into short term bonds where it can come out of the quickest if market turns around. So the short term bonds act as a kind of pump/dump for the market. We are getting bear flattener headwinds ahead of CPI print next week. Next week maybe market flattens out, momentum dies, slow stochastic falls below 80, and price sets up to go below prior "higher lows". Keep on alert.
TVC:US02YShort
by DarthTrader1357
1
Big Head and Shoulder Pattern 10 yearHey all just showing the ten year is looking like it will fall in anticipation of the fed relaxing its polices as we are in recessions and the labor market might weaken with the layoff announced by the big boys (tesla, Apple, google etc.) the distance of the head to neck bring the target to 2% which is less then current interest rates so I don't know if it will go that far with out something breaking in the economy first to cause this sudden shift in fed policy. Although Bull will put this in there case of the bottom is in history does not favor that philosophy. If you actually do research at the old peaks in the 10yr yield you will see markets usually collapse with the yield. Examples are 1999-2000 as the tech crash started, 2007-2008 as the GFC started and even in 2018 yields started to fall and the market bottomed after another +10% fall so watch out dont get FOMO in current rallies. Like and Follow for more Trade ideas and Financial education.
TVC:US10YShort
by jackwheeler
10-Year Treasury Yield Faces Head & Shoulders, Lookout Below?The 10-Year Treasury yield has been consolidating since April as traders grappled with inflation and recession woes. Now, a bearish Head & Shoulders chart formation is prevailing. At the time of publishing, prices finished forming the right shoulder and were trading at the neckline, which seems to be around 2.70. This is as the 100-day Simple Moving Average is holding up as support. It could still maintain the dominant uptrend. Otherwise, confirming a breakout under the neckline and the moving average may open the door to a broader reversal. Key levels to watch to the downside include the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements at 2.36 and 2.05 respectively. Beyond the latter sits the March low at 1.66. Overturning the Head & Shoulders entails a push above the right shoulder, which is just below 3.15. TVC:US10Y
TVC:US10Y
by QM_Dubrovsky
3
ARIASWAVE MARKET UPDATE - NEW WAVE COUNT EXPLAINED...In this video I continue on from my XLM PRICE ACTION UPDATE which I will link below. It all started a few weeks back when the price action was invalidated on the XLMUSD analysis. Instead of just jumping the gun, I took my time in analyzing and discovering the flaws in my previous analysis. Just because the main stream media is bearish didn't mean that I was going to follow along. Instead I took it upon myself to try and understand what is happening in order to find any clues that might lead me on that path. So now I present a more bearish view in a timely manner, pointing out the reasons why I believe we will go lower for a period of time. This could potentially lead us into the end of the year but at this stage it is best to just follow the waves. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
CAPITALCOM:XLMUSD
by AriasWave