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DXY at a KEY “Decision Point” on the Supply ZoneAfter an extended bullish duration, the DXY is now challenging a technically critical “Supply Zone” (100.150 – 100.600). Further away from key levels, both pump and dump up and down, momentum oscillators on all time frames give us mixed signals of exhaustion from buyers and that we are near to making a big decision in the direction of our market. A comprehensive technical look that includes the broader structures and multi-month macroeconomic supply-demand analysis. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Critical Resistance (Purple Zone): We are currently sitting right inside that 100.150 – 100.600 corridor. This is a level we know well—it’s packed with strong selling pressure and smart money order blocks. Think of this zone as a huge mental hurdle for the bulls; trying to go "Long" here without seeing a clean, high-volume breakout is just asking for trouble with a bad risk/reward setup. Trend Structure: That ascending yellow trendline connecting the lows since September has been holding the price up so far. But look closer—the space between the price and this trend support is squeezing tight (Compression). This usually tells us one thing: volatility is kicking in and a big move is brewing. Negative Divergence (RSI) : Here’s the warning sign. While the daily chart is trying to make new highs or just hanging on at resistance, the RSI is losing steam and making lower highs. This "Bearish Divergence" is a classic signal that the trend is running on fumes. Momentum (MACD) : The MACD histogram is fading out, which confirms the bulls are getting tired. It hints that profit-taking—and the sellers taking over—is likely just around the corner. MACROECONOMIC AND FUNDAMENTAL DYNAMICS Fed Expectations : The market is scrambling to rethink the Fed's rate path for 2025. We are watching the data like hawks right now; even a small sign of cooling in jobs or PMI data could spark a rejection from this resistance and send the DXY correcting downwards. Bond Yields : Any pullback in the US 10-Year Treasury Yields (US10Y) is going to add fuel to the fire for sellers on the Dollar Index. Liquidity Hunt: Watch out for the "fakeout." Market makers might try to push the price just above that 100.600 level to grab liquidity and hunt the stops of early shorters before slamming it back down. Keep your eyes peeled on the Price Action here. STRATEGY AND OUTLOOK Since we are banging our heads against resistance, opening new long positions here just isn't juicy enough risk-wise. Bearish Scenario: If we see a hard crash with volume breaking that ascending yellow trendline, that seals the deal for a reversal. If that happens, we’re looking at intermediate supports first, with the main target being that 96.50 level down low. Bullish Scenario : Unless we get a solid daily candle close above 100.800, any rallies should be looked at as opportunities to sell. If the price stays above that level, then this idea is dead in the water. Conclusion: It’s a "sit on your hands" moment. Waiting for that trend support to break is the safest confirmation we can get before jumping in. Disclaimer : Just sharing my personal notes and educational analysis here, not financial advice.
TVC:DXY
by celilADIGUZEL
DXY | Price Action - Awaiting a Clear BreakoutMacro approach: - US dollar index has traded slightly weaker so far this week, pressured by rising expectations of another Fed rate cut and soft US data at the start of Dec. Sentiment toward the greenback has been cautious amid a pullback in US yields and ongoing repricing of the Fed’s policy path.​ - Markets are increasingly discounting a high probability of a Dec FOMC cut as recent communication and prior easing have reinforced the view that policy is moving deeper into an easing cycle, undermining the US dollar’s yield advantage. At the same time, the latest ISM manufacturing release showed activity remaining in contraction territory, adding to concerns over US growth momentum and limiting support for the currency. Risk appetite in equities and metals has also improved, further reducing near‑term safe‑haven demand for the dollar.​ - US dollar index may remain under pressure if the upcoming US labor market data and services surveys indicate further cooling, reinforcing the case for additional Fed easing. Key catalysts include this week’s jobs indicators, the ISM Services Index release, and fresh Fed speeches, which could potentially shift rate-cut expectations and drive renewed volatility in the index.​ Technical approach: - DXY consolidated within the range of 99.00-100.28. The index is between both EMAs, indicating a sideways movement remains intact. - If DXY breaches above 100.28, the price may rise toward the following resistance at 101.70. - Conversely, closing below EMA78 and 99.00 may prompt a further decline toward the subsequent support at 97.60. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXY
by DatTong
Bitcoin Squeeze Into HTF Cap: Harvest Zones MappedMarket Overview Bitcoin ripped from the 80,620 daily pivot low into a stacked multi‑timeframe cap at 93,105. The bounce is strong, but on 12H/1D it remains a counter‑trend rally pressing a decision point as macro risk tone is still cautious. Momentum: Bearish bias with a counter‑trend squeeze into 93,105; trend filters (12H/1D) remain down while weekly stays up. Key levels: - Resistances (HTF): 93,100–93,105 (720/240 PH), 107,462 (1D PH), 126,219 (1W PH) - Supports (HTF/MTF): 91,700–90,300 (240 PH/PL zone), 89,300 (240 PL), 80,600 (D Pivot Low + ISPD cluster) Volumes: Very high volume on the daily rebound; normal to moderate intraday — powerful buy response, but treat it as a catalyst into resistance. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H down vs 1W up; intraday (1H/30m/15m) up but compressing under 93,105 — aligns with fade‑the‑rip unless 93,105 is reclaimed with persistence. Harvest zones: 80,600 (Cluster A) / 83,800–84,500 (Cluster B) — ideal dip‑buy zones for inverse pyramiding only with ≥2H reversal signals. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: NEUTRE VENTE — confirms a cautious, sell‑the‑rally stance unless we see multi‑day improvement. Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ With HTF trend filters down, favor a defensive stance: fade strength into 93,105 and only buy confirmed reversals at deep floors. Global bias: Neutral‑sell while price is below 93,105; invalidation on sustained acceptance above 93,105 (12H–1D). Opportunities: - Tactical sell: Fade 93,100–93,300 on rejection; targets 91,700 then 90,250; invalidate on 12H acceptance above 93,105. - Tactical buy: 2H reversal at 84,500–83,800 (Cluster B); first TP 89,300; invalidate on 2H close beneath the acted floor. - Strategic buy: 2H+ reversal at 80,600 (Cluster A) for a swing back toward 93,105. Risk zones / invalidations: A break below 84,500 opens 80,600; daily acceptance above 93,105 flips risk toward 96,000–101,000. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): Expansionary PMIs with softer oil and tame Swiss CPI support risk; FOMC ahead can flip the Risk On / Risk Off Indicator; spot ETF inflows are modestly positive but not decisive. Harvest Plan (Inverse Pyramid): - Palier 1 (12.5%): 80,600 (Cluster A) + reversal ≥2H → entry - Palier 2 (+12.5%): 77,400–75,800 (-4/-6% below Palier 1) - TP: 50% at +12–18% from PMP → recycle cash - Runner: hold if break & hold first R HTF (93,105) - Invalidation: < HTF Pivot Low 80,600 or 96h no momentum - Hedge (1x): Short first R HTF (93,105) on rejection + bearish trend → neutralize below R Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Across TFs, price is pressing a multi‑TF pivot at 93,105 while lower clusters remain the highest‑quality demand. 1D/12H/6H/4H/2H: Counter‑trend rally into 93,105; structure remains heavy below this cap, with first pullback support at 91,700–90,300 and deeper floors at 89,300 and 80,600. 1W: Uptrend intact; reclaim and hold above 93,105 would unlock 96,000–101,000, keeping the larger cycle constructive. 1H/30m/15m: Local uptrend but compressing under 93,105; watch for false break wicks to fade or a clean reclaim + retest to follow higher. Confluence: 80,600 aligns multi‑TF ISPD floors, AGG(Median) and the D Pivot Low; 93,105 is a 720/240 PH cluster — the key decision gate. Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro reads lean cautiously risk‑on (PMIs >50, softer oil, cool Swiss CPI) but the tech risk regime remains unfavorable, keeping BTC sensitive to policy tone. Macro events: Broadly expansionary PMIs, oil softer, and subdued Swiss CPI ease inflation impulse; the market awaits the Fed decision, which can reprice risk quickly. External Macro Analysis: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator master read is bearish with credit stress (HYG) and high‑beta weakness (ARKK) confirmed; semis/small caps in conflict — a mid‑cycle mix that argues for prudence and choppy volatility. Bitcoin analysis: Modest spot‑ETF inflows and widening institutional access (Vanguard, BoA) add a tailwind, but not enough to overrule HTF resistance without confirmation. On-chain data: Fresh stablecoin mints suggest dry powder, while some very old coins moving adds supply risk; options skew remains defensively tilted at longer tenors. Expected impact: Macro/on‑chain backdrop tempers the squeeze; favors selling the 93k rip and buying only confirmed dips at 83.8–84.5k and 80.6k until the regime improves. Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is squeezing into a heavy HTF cap at 93,105 while the risk regime stays NEUTRE VENTE. The broader trend is bearish on 12H/1D, so the highest‑probability setup is to fade 93,105 and accumulate on confirmed reversals at 83.8–84.5k and 80.6k. Macro is mixed: PMIs supportive but the risk regime and credit tone remain cautious. Stay patient at the gate and let the level decide the next run.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
Kiwi in 5th wave, then buy-the-dip?Kiwi looks to have put in a provisional bottom around 0.5570 and is grinding higher toward the 0.58 handle, a key resistance zone that could either cap this fifth wave or unlock further upside. In this video, we look at how a weaker US dollar and a slightly more hawkish RBNZ are supporting NZD/USD, and why 0.58 is such an important decision point. We then map out the buy‑the‑dip zone for a potential continuation higher and the levels that would flip the script to shorts. Key drivers RBNZ recently cut by 25 bps but signalled the easing cycle is likely over, while new governor Anna Breman is perceived as relatively hawkish and focused on inflation, which helps underpin the Kiwi.​ Fed December cut odds around 85–90% after a run of softer US data keep the dollar under pressure, providing a tailwind for NZDUSD on rallies and pullbacks.​ On the 4‑hour chart, price is pushing up toward 0.58 with emerging RSI divergence, suggesting this move is likely a fifth wave into resistance and setting up a corrective pullback rather than an immediate trend reversal.​ Primary idea : Look to buy the dip if price reacts lower from 0.58 into the 0.5690–0.5660 zone (between the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib of the latest leg and prior support), targeting 0.5910, 0.60 and potentially 0.61, while a break below ~0.5640 and the channel base would instead open the door to deeper downside and short opportunities.​ Trading Kiwi here? Share how you’re planning to trade the 0.58 resistance and buy‑the‑dip zone in the comments, and follow for more macro‑plus‑technicals swing setups. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
BITMEX:BRBNT30MLong
by ThinkMarkets
The Era of Gentle Money (QE)- This chart features labels for all key dates, offering a clear and comprehensive overview, including trillions in money creation, QT and QE phases, crises, and flash printing events. - To truly understand stocks, cryptocurrencies, or precious metals, you first need to understand the monetary system and how it drives inflation. - The market has been heavily suppressed since June 2022, when the Fed began its Quantitative Tightening (QT), the Fed kicked off a new QE phase on December 1, 2025. - This is the primary driver behind yesterday’s BTC market surge. - To complement this, we will soon have a new Fed President, Most likely, they will continue cutting rates, printing more money, and Banks will increase lending, encouraging people to take more risks, which could drive markets higher. Bearish sentiment is premature at this stage. The heart of truth beats in the printer and in the river of liquidity ! Happy Tr4Ding !
ECONOMICS:USCBBSLong
by thecryer
2
GBPUSD wave 2 pullback? Buy the dip or sell the Rachel rally?Sterling surged over 1% last week on UK budget relief, the so-called "Rachel Rally", but profit-taking kicked in at resistance. With both the BOE and Fed now 90% expected to cut in December, the dollar is under more pressure, making Cable pullbacks attractive buying opportunities. Key drivers: "Rachel Rally" profit-taking after Sterling's best week since August led to double top at 1.3275 resistance. BOE December rate cut priced at 90%, creating short-term headwinds. Fed December cut odds surged to ~90% after ISM Manufacturing fell to 48.2, the ninth straight month of contraction, keeping dollar weak. Both central banks are cutting, but USD is under more pressure right now, supporting GBPUSD on pullbacks. Wave structure : Five-wave leg complete from 1.30 low, now in Wave 2 correction. Key support zone between 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci (around 1.3150–1.3130). If this holds, buying the dip for Wave 3 of Wave 3 (or Wave 3 of C) targeting 1.3275, then 1.3315 and higher. Alternative : Losing 1.31 increases risk of continuation lower toward previous low and potentially 1.2847. Looking to buy the GBPUSD dip? Share your Wave 2 entries in the comments and follow for more macro-plus-technicals trade ideas. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
Bulls Hang Tough - US Data and Holiday Trading Make or BreakThanksgiving week delivered a nice rally to help November finish higher than October It's now December and we have a myriad of US News hitting the headlines before Christmas and New Year's bring us into 2026 ADP Non-Farm US PMI US Core PCE Non-Farm CPI / PPI FOMC (December Rate Cut Likely) Price action is truly key. November ended with a nice stable rally with broad market pumps encouraging an equal weight comeback trade for now (nearly 60% of S&P stocks > 50 period moving average, and 60% of S&P stocks > 200 period moving average) If the markets avoid a major slip or disruption to end the year, animal spirits may remain optimistic enough to keep the party going in 2026 and continue to climb the wall of worry as sentiment remains pessimistic US Market Key Levels 1) Oct 10 and Nov 20 candle lows 2) 200 period moving average 3) February 2025 all-time highs area Sector rotation is pretty clear. Broader market rotation is pretty clear, but overall the markets need to continue to show stable and steady earnings growth and trends and keep the AI narrative glowing with a positive outlook
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
1
BTC Risk-Off Drop: 84.6k Floor or 80.6k Test? __________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin just absorbed a high-energy risk-off flush from the 90–92k supply shelf and is sliding toward a dense 84.6k demand cluster. Momentum remains down on HTFs; bounces are corrective unless key resistances are reclaimed. Momentum: Bearish bias with a corrective bounce attempt; structure prints lower highs across HTFs and rejects 90–92k. Key levels: - Resistances (HTF): 88,500–89,000 (breakdown block) / 90,248–91,969 (4H supply) / 95,358 (1D Kijun). - Supports (HTF): 86,000–86,200 (minor shelf) / 84,568–84,629 (ISPD cluster) / 80,619 (D Pivot Low). Volumes: Very high on the daily selloff; moderate-to-normal on intraday rebounds. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H/6H/4H/2H/1H trends are Down; only notable exception is a 1D ISPD “BUY” context at 84.6k that requires a clear reversal signal to act. Harvest zones: 84,600 (Cluster A) / 79,100–79,600 (Cluster B). These are the preferred dip-buying locations for inverse pyramiding when a ≥2H reversal prints. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: NEUTRE VENTE — confirms the downside momentum and argues for fading rallies unless 88–88.5k is reclaimed with strength. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ With HTFs pointing Down, the stance is defensive: fade rallies into supply and only buy the 84.6k floor on confirmed reversal. Global bias: NEUTRAL SELL while below 90,248–91,969; invalidation for shorts on sustained daily close above 92,000. Opportunities: - Tactical buy: 84,568–84,629 test only on ≥2H bullish reversal; scale out into 86,200 then 87,600–88,000. - Breakout buy: Reclaim and hold above 88,000–88,500 with follow-through into 90.2–92.0k; manage risk tightly. - Tactical sell: Fade rejections at 87,600–88,000 or 90,248–91,969; targets 86,200 → 84,600 → 80,600 if momentum persists. Risk zones / invalidations: A sustained close below 84,200 likely opens 80,619 then 79,100–79,600; a sustained daily close above 92,000 negates the near-term bearish read. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): BOJ tightening risk and yen volatility keep risk premia elevated; FOMC/dot plot can flip tone — wait for post-event persistence; ETF 7d flows negative despite a small daily inflow, limiting macro support. Harvest Plan (Inverse Pyramid): - Palier 1 (12.5%): 84,600 (Cluster A) + reversal ≥2H → entry - Palier 2 (+12.5%): 81,200–79,500 (-4/-6% below Palier 1; Cluster B included) → reinforcement - TP: 50% at +12–18% from PMP → recycle cash - Runner: hold if break & hold first R HTF 90,248–91,969 - Invalidation: < 80,600 HTF Pivot Low or 96h no momentum - Hedge (1x): Short first R HTF on rejection + bearish trend → neutralize below R __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Across the stack, structure is bearish with a corrective rebound; the 84.6k floor is the key battleground. 1D/12H group: Rejected 90–92k; drifting toward 84.6k. A clean ≥12H reversal at 84.6k could fuel a tradable bounce; failure exposes 80,619 then 79.1–79.6k. 6H/4H/2H group: Lower-high sequence intact; best sells at 88.5–89.0k and 90.2–92.0k. Breakdown retests under 86.0k stay valid with momentum. 1H/30m/15m group: Bounce is corrective into supply; very high volume printed on the leg down. Intraday long only on confirmed reversal at 84.6k; otherwise fade into resistance. Major confluence: 84.6k is a tight 1D+30m floor cluster; 90.2–92.0k is dominant HTF supply. This confluence frames the range to harvest. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Risk-off impulses were amplified by yen-carry tremors and soft Asia data, while crypto flows remain mixed. Macro events: BOJ tightening risk (2Y JGB near 1%) and USD/JPY volatility spilled into risk assets; FOMC/dot plot ahead can reset the volatility regime; energy/geopolitical tension adds a risk premium. External Macro Analysis integration: The Dashboard flags the Risk On / Risk Off Indicator as BEAR with stress in credit (HYG) and high beta (ARKK) — this confirms the technical NEUTRAL SELL bias. Bitcoin analysis: ~$4k air-pocket drop, ~$300M long liquidations; traders eye 82–80k on further stress versus an 88k reclaim to neutralize near-term risk; ETF 7d flows remain negative. On-chain data: Liquidity thin; options skew defensive with heavy puts near 84k and elevated IV into December — rallies prone to fade without spot absorption. Expected impact: Macro/on-chain backdrop supports a cautious, sell-rallies stance unless 88–88.5k is reclaimed and funding/spot absorption improves. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is in a risk-off downswing, probing toward a high-quality 84.6k floor while HTFs remain bearish. The trend is bearish-to-neutral below 90.2–92.0k; the most relevant setup is buying a confirmed 84.6k reversal or fading rejections at 88.5–89.0k and 90.2–92.0k. Macro risk from BOJ/FOMC and weak ETF flows argues for patience and tight risk. Stay methodical — harvest volatility, don’t chase.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
BTC Playbook: Rebound into Supply, Cluster A Prime__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin rebounded strongly from the 80k area and is now pressing into stacked higher-timeframe supply near 93k–96k amid thin liquidity and cautious macro flows. The short-term bounce runs into HTF headwinds while higher-quality demand sits lower. Momentum: Bearish tilt within a corrective rebound; price is testing HTF resistance while higher-timeframe trend filters remain down. Key levels: - Resistances (HTF): 93,000–96,000 (12H/1D supply), 107,500 (1D pivot high) - Supports (HTF/MTF): 91,000–91,300 (local pivot), 89,300 (240 PL), 84,600–82,600 (1D/12H floors) Volumes: Very high on the daily rebound; normal to moderate intraday, which argues against chasing into supply. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H down; 6H/4H/2H neutral-to-down into resistance; 1H/30m up but at supply. This aligns with fading 93k–96k and reserving longs for deeper, confirmed floors. Harvest zones: 80,600 (Cluster A) / 79,700–80,000 (Cluster B) — prime dip-buy area for inverse pyramiding if reached and confirmed. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: Neutral Sell; it contradicts the short-term bounce and supports a cautious “sell rips, buy only quality dips” approach. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ The dominant higher-timeframe trend is still down; adopt a tactical stance: fade 93k–96k unless the market reclaims and holds above it, and reserve dip-buys for confirmed floors. Global bias: Neutral Sell while below 96,000; invalidation of the bearish tilt on a sustained 1D/12H close and hold above 96,000. Opportunities: - Tactical sell: Fade 93,000–96,000 rejections on a 4H/12H bearish close; targets 91,300 then 89,300. - Breakout buy: Only on 1H/4H close and hold above 96,000; buy the retest toward 100k. - Dip buy: 84,600–82,600 flush or 80,600–79,700 Cluster A with ≥2H bullish reversal; scale on confirmation. Risk zones / invalidations: Clean acceptance above 96,000 invalidates near-term shorts; a daily close below 84,600 raises odds of revisiting Cluster A. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - CME outages and thin post-holiday liquidity raise whipsaw/gap risk, favoring patience at edges. - Hard-asset strength (silver ATH; gold bid) and Eurozone disinflation support a rate-cut narrative but do not negate HTF supply overhead. - US spot ETF 7-day flows are still negative, tempering risk appetite into month-end. Harvest Plan (Inverse Pyramid): - Palier 1 (12.5%): 80,600 (Cluster A) + reversal ≥2H → entry - Palier 2 (+12.5%): 77,400–75,800 (-4/-6% below Palier 1) - TP: 50% at +12–18% from PMP → recycle cash - Runner: hold if break & hold first R HTF (96,000) - Invalidation: < 79,700 (HTF Cluster A floor) or 96h no momentum - Hedge (1x): Short first R HTF on rejection + bearish trend → neutralize below R __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Across timeframes, short-term momentum is fighting into higher-timeframe supply while the broader trend filters stay bearish. 1D/12H: Downtrend intact; price sits beneath the 96k daily Kijun and the 96k supply band. Acceptance above 96k is required to unlock 100k+. 6H/4H/2H: Neutral-to-down; the rebound leg is pressing 93k with layered supply up to 96k. Best risk-reward is fading into that band or waiting for deeper pullbacks. 1H/30m/15m: Up but at resistance; strong daily volume on the bounce helps, yet intraday signals should not override HTF filters at 93k–96k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro remains cautiously supportive of hard assets, but market plumbing and liquidity are fragile, which can amplify moves at technical edges. Macro events: CME outages/resumptions and a holiday-thin session increase gap/whipsaw risk; silver printed an all-time high and Eurozone disinflation aids rate-cut expectations; overall risk tone is mildly constructive but fragile. Bitcoin analysis: Above roughly 91.5k, technicians eye a path toward upper resistance; 93k is the first gate, with a medium-term retrace band floated at 107k–117k if upside confirms. On-chain data: Liquidity remains fragile with defensive positioning; options skew shows heavy puts near mid-80s and calls into 100k; elevated realized losses warn against chasing. Expected impact: Technical bias stays Neutral Sell unless 96k is reclaimed; macro is a tailwind to hard assets but not yet strong enough to overrule HTF supply. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ The market is in a corrective rebound into HTF supply. - Trend: Broadly bearish on HTF while intraday momentum is positive into resistance. - Setup: Fade 93k–96k on weakness; buy only confirmed dips at 84.6–82.6k or 80.6–79.7k. - Macro: Hard-asset bid and disinflation help, but ETF outflows and thin liquidity argue for patience. Stay nimble at the edges; wait for the market to show its hand at 93k–96k or on a quality drop into Cluster A.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
EUR/GBP: Smart Money Unwinding Begins — The Pullback Trap1. Price Action (Daily Chart) At the moment, EUR/GBP is moving through a bearish correction within a broader medium-term bullish structure. Price has cleanly rejected the 0.8800–0.8850 supply zone, which aligns with the upper boundary of the ascending channel. The breakdown of the inner trendline and the daily close below the channel’s midline signal that momentum has shifted to sellers. RSI is deeply oversold, so I expect a technical rebound before any continuation of the sell-off. The first level I’m watching for a retest is 0.8780–0.8800, a former support → now resistance. As long as we remain below that zone, I maintain a short bias, targeting the 0.8680–0.8650 confluence, where the channel support, daily demand, and previous structural levels align. A sustained reclaim above 0.8810–0.8830 would invalidate this scenario. 2. Sentiment (Retail Positioning) Sentiment data shows 74% retail short and only 26% long. As a contrarian trader, this makes me cautious about selling lows: the crowd is already on the move, usually late. This doesn’t invalidate the downside bias, but it reinforces the idea of waiting for a proper pullback before considering new short entries. 3. COT (Commitment of Traders) The COT report sends a clear message: we may be entering a distribution phase on the cross. On the EUR side, Non-Commercials remain strongly net-long (243k vs 135k) but are reducing long exposure. On the GBP side, Non-Commercials remain net-short (79k vs 91k) and are aggressively cutting long positions. This tells me the market had been positioned long EUR / short GBP, and is now unwinding that consensus — a classic signature of a correction after a mature bullish trend. Commercials, as often seen at potential turning points, are doing the opposite: accumulating GBP and distributing EUR, suggesting that current EUR/GBP levels are no longer attractive from a hedging/fundamental standpoint. 4. Seasonality November seasonality is historically moderately bearish for EUR/GBP across the 10-, 15- and 20-year studies. December, on the other hand, shows a much stronger positive seasonal tendency. For me, this creates a clear narrative: • expected weakness into late November, • potential accumulation zone in early December, • likely seasonal recovery in the second half of the month.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
BTC Playbook: 93k Pivot vs 98k Path__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Price is pressing into a well-defined 92,800–93,500 resistance band while macro leadership stays risk-off, making this a decision area. Momentum is rebuilding off 89k supports, but higher timeframes lean cautious until acceptance above 93,150. Momentum: Bearish-to-neutral with a tactical counter-trend bounce; sustained strength needs a clean break-and-hold above 93,150. Key levels: - Resistances (HTF): 92,800–93,500 (240 Pivot High zone), 98,115 (W Pivot Low), 107,474 (D Pivot High) - Supports (HTF/ITF): 90,500–90,800 (recent base), 89,012 (240 Pivot Low), 86,261 (240 Pivot Low) Volumes: Moderate on 1D/12H; normal on intraday (6H/4H/2H/1H). Multi-timeframe signals: 1D Up vs 12H/6H/4H/2H Down; intraday 1H Up but into HTF resistance. Defer to 12H Down unless 93,150 is accepted with persistence. Harvest zones: 80,200 (Cluster A) / 76,600–77,100 (Cluster B) — ideal deep dip-buying areas for inverse pyramiding if market overreacts. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: Neutral sell — confirms the cautious stance under resistance and argues for patience on longs. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ The dominant read is neutral-sell into HTF resistance; adopt a reactive approach: fade failed breakouts, flip to long only on confirmed acceptance. Global bias: Neutral-sell while below 93,150; bias flips constructive on ≥2H/4H acceptance above 93,150. Invalidation of the fade: sustained hold above 93,150. Opportunities: - Tactical sell: Fade 92,800–93,500 if 2H/4H prints rejection and volume fades; add on loss of 91,000 toward 89,012. - Breakout buy: Engage on ≥2H/4H close above 93,150 with successful retest; first target 98,115. - Reactive buy: Probe 89,012 only on strong reversal signal (≥2H) with improving volumes. Risk zones / invalidations: - Break below 89,012 would invalidate reactive longs and opens 86,261 risk. - Sustained hold above 93,150 would invalidate shorts from the 92,800–93,500 fade zone. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - Liquidity tailwind: PBOC injections + equities <2% from ATH, but thin holiday liquidity can distort moves. - ETFs: 7-day BTC spot ETF flows negative despite a small daily inflow — headwind near resistance. - Rates: Elevated Fed cut odds support dips, but headline risks (stablecoins/geopolitics) can spark risk-off spikes. Harvest Plan (Inverse Pyramid): - Palier 1 (12.5%): 80,200 (Cluster A) + reversal ≥2H → entry - Palier 2 (+12.5%): 75,400–77,000 (-6%/-4% below Palier 1) (Cluster B included) → reinforcement - TP: 50% at +12–18% from PMP → recycle cash - Runner: hold if break & hold first R HTF (93,150) - Invalidation: < HTF Pivot Low (not provided) or 96h no momentum - Hedge (1x): Short first R HTF (93,150) on rejection + bearish trend → neutralize below R __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Higher timeframes are mixed with 1D Up versus 12H Down; execution should respect the 12H filter until 93,150 is reclaimed with persistence. 12H/6H/4H/2H: Downtrend bias pressing into 92,800–93,500 supply; rejection here favors a rotation to 91,000 then 89,012. Acceptance and hold above 93,150 unlocks 98,115. 1D/1H: 1D Up but capped by 93,150; 1H Up is counter-trend into HTF resistance, so expect chop under 93k unless volume expands on breakout. Confluences/divergences: Persistent HTF resistance at 93,150 aligns with risk-off macro; 1D strength is an exception that requires flow/volume confirmation to extend. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is cautiously constructive on liquidity, but BTC-specific flows are not yet a tailwind, keeping technical resistance meaningful. Macro events: PBOC liquidity injections aid risk; S&P 500 near ATH with thin US holiday liquidity; elevated cut odds into December create a soft landing narrative but headline risk persists. Bitcoin analysis: BTC reclaimed 90k with negative/neutral funding; overhead supply 91.9–93k; ETF 7-day flows negative, dampening confidence at resistance. On-chain data: Liquidity pockets discussed around low 80ks; heavy puts near mid-80ks; recovery impulses need stronger demand inflow and key cost-basis reclaims. Expected impact: If ETF flows stabilize and price accepts above 93,150, path opens toward 98,115; otherwise the 92,800–93,500 zone favors tactical fades. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is testing a critical resistance while macro risk-on is tentative and flow support is uneven. - Trend: Neutral-to-bearish below 93,150; constructive only on confirmed acceptance above. - Setup: Fade 92,800–93,500 rejections; switch long on ≥2H/4H hold above 93,150 targeting 98,115. - Macro: ETF 7-day flows remain negative, capping conviction at resistance despite broader liquidity support. Stay patient at the boss gate; wait for a clean unlock above 93,150 or harvest the rejection.
by Ox_kali
BTC FED Week Map - Daily WrapNo trades for the second day: BTC stayed inside the 87–89k chop zone and the weekly roadmap is unchanged. Key levels into the FED: • 90k – squeeze line; post-FED acceptance above opens room toward 92–93k. • 85.3k – breakdown line; clean loss + failed reclaim points toward 82–81k. • 87–89k – intraday no-trade box until the dust settles. Flat into the event. Map, not signal. If you find this intraday map useful, hit 👍 and follow for updates. Share your alternative levels or invalidation ideas in the comments — I’m here for discussion, not signals.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by vanlubow
GBPUSD | Opportunities Before UK Autumn Budget DataMacro approach: - The pound appreciated against the US dollar as markets focus on the UK Autumn Budget and shifting expectations for US data and Fed policy this week. - The UK Autumn Budget is the key event, with uncertainty over possible tax rises and spending cuts undermining confidence and keeping the pound under pressure. Recent data showing UK inflation easing to about 3.6% in Oct has boosted expectations of a BoE rate cut in Dec, which also weighs on the pound. - On the US side, expectations for a Fed rate cut in Dec have climbed to 80%, putting downward pressure on the US dollar and US yields. - Contrarian view: while the upcoming UK Autumn Budget (scheduled for 26 Nov) is a significant risk, the negative sentiment may have been fully "priced in" by earlier declines.​ Markets are in a "wait-and-see" mode. The lack of fresh negative news today has allowed the pound to stabilize and edge higher as traders square positions before the actual budget announcement. Technical: - GPBUSD is retesting the broken descending trendline, which is slightly above the key support at 1.3100. The price is between both EMAs, awaiting a clear breakout to determine the short-term trend. - If GBPUSD breaches above EMA78, the price may continue heading toward the following resistance at 1.3215. - Conversely, closing below the key support at 1.3100 may prompt a downward momentum to retest the previous swing low at 1.3040. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
2
Bitcoin 2026History doesn’t repeat like a record player — but it rhymes. By tracking patterns critically (not fatalistically), we can: 1. Spot early warnings of past mistakes. 2. Identify where old models fail or not. 3. Make more informed choices about the future. I'll make 12 updates ahead and we will find out how this patterns works in case of btc/usd. Key Questions to Test Over 12 Months Do halving cycles still drive price action, or has the market “priced it in”? Does BTC is still just a “risk tech” (correlated with Nasdaq)? Core Metrics to Track Monthly a) Price & Volatility BTC/USD closing price (monthly average). 30‑day volatility (standard deviation of daily returns). Compare to past cycles (2013, 2017, 2021 peaks/bottoms). b) On‑Chain Activity Active addresses (network usage). Exchange inflows/outflows (signaling accumulation vs. selling). Hash rate (miner confidence). c) Macroeconomic Context U.S. inflation rate and Fed policy (interest rates, QT/QE). Global liquidity conditions (M2 money supply, T‑bill yields). Risk‑on/risk‑off sentiment (S&P 500, gold, USD index). d) Regulatory & Adoption Shifts New crypto regulations (U.S., EU, Asia). Institutional adoption (spot ETF flows, corporate treasury allocations). Tech updates (Bitcoin protocol changes, Lightning Network growth). Meanwhile we will focus on charts. The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Vermarine
1
FED days are for levels, not direction.FED days are for levels, not direction. Above 90k I respect the squeeze; below 85.3k I respect the breakdown. Map, not signal. KRAKEN:BTCUSD BTC is chopping around 88k just under a 1h channel top into FED today/tomorrow. ETF flows look soft and options positioning still leans defensive. I’m not opening new trades into the announcement. Anything stuck between 87–89k post-FED is a no-trade chop zone for me. Post-FED: if BTC holds above 90k I’ll only look for pullback longs with 92–93k as context; if it loses 85.3k and can’t reclaim, I’ll lean into shorts toward 82–81k. Map, not signal.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by vanlubow
EUR/CHF – Rejection or Breakout?On EUR/CHF, I’m seeing a moderately bullish overall structure, although I recognize a real risk of rejection within the supply zone I’m monitoring on the daily timeframe. Since September, the broader market structure has been clearly bearish: price has been moving inside a well-defined descending channel, and the rebound from the 0.922–0.923 area simply pushed price back toward the upper boundary of that channel, right into my 0.9315–0.9335 supply zone, where the descending trendline also aligns. It’s normal to see profit-taking and liquidity from late buyers coming into play here. As long as I don’t see a clean daily close above 0.9330–0.9340, the downtrend is not technically invalidated for me. The most likely scenario based purely on price action is an initial bearish reaction from the current area, potentially followed by a pullback toward 0.9280–0.9290, which now acts as the first meaningful support (former resistance + top of the inner channel). Only if I see clear rejection in that zone — pin bars or bullish engulfings on H4/H1 — I will consider long entries targeting 0.9360–0.9380 and, in extension, the large supply zone at 0.9410–0.9450. I completely invalidate this long setup below 0.9250, and definitively below 0.9220. Regarding the COT, even though the data is outdated due to the shutdown, the structural picture remains intact: speculators are strongly net long EUR (255k vs 137k) and strongly net short CHF (7.5k vs 35k). This combination — “specs long EUR / short CHF” — continues to support a medium-term bullish bias for this cross. COT doesn’t give me timing, but it does prevent me from trading against the macro flow: deep pullbacks still look more like buying opportunities than the start of a fresh bearish trend. Seasonality shows that both EUR and CHF are typically weak in November, so there isn’t a strong directional edge. What matters more is December, where both currencies tend to strengthen, with CHF historically performing slightly better. This makes seasonality essentially neutral for EUR/CHF, so I use it only as a soft confirmation rather than a directional driver. On the sentiment side, I notice that 69% of retail traders are short EUR/CHF. That’s a strong contrarian signal in favor of further upside: retail is still anchored to the bearish narrative of the past months, so a breakout above 0.933–0.934 could trigger a sharp squeeze, even more so if price extends above 0.937–0.938.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
NVDA Head and Shoulders- Dec Rate Cuts has changed setupNvidia’s setup has shifted. With the Fed signaling a likely rate cut on December 10th, the market will start baking that optimism into asset prices ahead of time. When monetary conditions ease, high-valuation tech often gets an extra tailwind, which means the expected head-and-shoulders pattern on NVDA may fail to play out cleanly. The chart might still roll over, but the macro backdrop now works against a decisive breakdown. Short positions here demand caution. Original post Nvidia’s bear case rests on one core idea: the stock price assumes a flawless, world-eating AI future, and markets almost never deliver on “perfection narratives.” NVDA trades at extreme valuation multiples for a hardware-driven, highly cyclical business. Those multiples only hold if AI infrastructure spending keeps compounding at its current breathtaking pace for years. But that demand is dangerously concentrated in a handful of hyperscalers who are spending now and rationalizing later. Michael Burry’s recent argument sharpens this point: he claims true end-demand for AI horsepower is vastly overstated, and that much of the current GPU frenzy is a self-reinforcing loop of capital, hype, and accounting gimmicks rather than broad, organic need. If boards pause to question real ROI, or if the circular funding loop breaks Nvidia’s revenue curve can flatten quickly, dragging the valuation down with it. Competition, long dismissed by NVIDIA bulls, is another structural headwind. AMD is now shipping accelerators that hyperscalers are actually integrating, and every major cloud provider is building in-house silicon to reduce dependence on NVDA’s margins. Even if Nvidia maintains leadership, it doesn’t need to lose the crown to lose the multiple, slight shifts in workload allocation or a handful of missed design wins are enough to pressure margins. And Burry’s critique deepens this point: he argues Nvidia’s reported profitability is flattered by depreciation assumptions and massive stock-based compensation that buybacks have failed to offset, meaning the “true” economic profit is less bulletproof than headlines suggest. Add to that the fact that U.S. export controls have effectively erased the China data-center market, once 20–25% of revenues and expectations of a seamless global TAM look increasingly unrealistic. Technically, NVDA is doing exactly what a euphoric, overowned stock does when gravity starts tugging: momentum is fading, the price is slipping under short-term moving averages, and reactions to spectacular earnings have been strangely sluggish. That’s often the early signature of distribution rather than accumulation. And this lines up directly with Burry’s broader thesis: when a narrative becomes crowded and reflexive, the slightest wobble triggers violent air pockets. NVDA has become the ultimate proxy for the AI boom, the most crowded long in the market, meaning it’s the first thing funds sell when risk appetite cools, and the last thing buyers chase during corrections. Put simply, Nvidia is a phenomenal company priced as if nothing can ever go wrong, while Burry is arguing that much of what looks “perfect” is not what it seems. The bear case isn’t that Nvidia collapses. It’s that the AI boom normalizes, competition accelerates, accounting realities catch up, margins slip toward something earthbound, and investors recalibrate how much they’re willing to pay. In that world, NVDA doesn’t need bad news to fall. It only needs the news to arrive slightly less euphoric than the fantasies currently baked into the price. #NVDA #Bearish #HeadandShoulders #MichaelBurry
NASDAQ:NVDA
by dzmiller39
S&P500 crashes! Due relief rally or further pain?Nvidia delivered impressive earnings, but the stock reversed and closed nearly 3% lower, triggering heavy selling across tech and risk assets as odds for a December rate cut have collapsed to just 34%, with policy uncertainty amplified by the cancelled October NFP report. Despite a strong market and rising unemployment in September's NFP report, traders remained defensive and fuelled the declines. Key drivers: Nvidia beat earnings, but post-report selling intensified sector losses. The Fed’s odds for a December rate cut have dropped to 34%, amplifying caution. The abrupt cancellation of the October NFP means the market lacks fresh labour data, fuelling defensive positioning. S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Bitcoin broke major supports, confirming risk-off conditions. Right now, the S&P 500 has broken below channel support near 6,600 and failed to climb back in. If prices stay below this threshold, expect another sharp move lower targeting 6,500 and possibly 6,350. There’s potential for upside, given momentum divergence on the RSI 4-hour chart. If we see a short-term bounce and a return to the channel, a move toward 6,682 is possible, which sets up a tactical short opportunity. Trade idea: Entry: Midpoint of 23.6/38.2 Fibonacci (6,655–6,682 area) Stop-loss: Above 61.8% Fib (6,775) Take Profits: TP1 6,500 (recent low/support), TP2 6,440 (major support), TP3 trail stop to 6,170 (long-term support) Risk-off drivers are in control. Earnings reversals, Fed uncertainty, and cancelled NFP data are fuelling this price action. Technically, it comes down to whether we see a return inside the channel for a relief bounce or a sharp continuation downward. Watch your levels, remain nimble, and let fundamentals and technicals, not emotions, guide your trade. Let me know your setups in the comments, and follow for more high-action technical and macro trade ideas. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:SPX500Short
by ThinkMarkets
1
US500 retreated on a hawkish Fed shift and a tech-sector fall September nonfarm payrolls rose by 119k (cons. 51k), but August was sharply revised down to -4k from 22k, while continuing jobless claims increased by 28k from the prior week. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.4% (prev. 4.3%, cons. 4.3%), the highest in four years, further weighing on sentiment. Fed commentary added to the pressure. Cleveland Fed President Mester noted that, despite signs of labor-market cooling, inflation remains elevated. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee also cautioned that inflation has not yet reached the 2% target, signalling reluctance toward additional rate cuts. Today’s PMI and consumer expectations data will be key indicators of current US economic conditions. US500 broke below the lower boundary of the ascending channel, extending its sharp decline. The diverging bearish EMAs indicate a potential continuation of the downtrend. If US500 breaks below 6500, the index could retreat toward the next support at 6430. Conversely, if US500 closes above 6650, where EMA21 intersects, the index may advance toward the following resistance at 6700.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by inkicho_exness
NZDJPY: Premium Short Setup Below 89.00 – Seasonality + COT1. Macro Outlook NZDJPY remains a cross strongly driven by risk dynamics: NZD typically behaves as a risk-on currency, while JPY is a classic risk-off safe haven. The current global environment — characterized by slowing economic momentum, yield volatility, and speculative position rotation — generally supports downside pressure on the cross, although with less linearity compared to the previous quarter. 2. COT (Commitments of Traders) JPY Non-commercial traders remain clearly net-long JPY, reflecting a structural preference for Yen strength. However, weekly changes show: • –8,589 long contracts closed • +9,446 new short contracts added → This indicates profit-taking and a reduced bullish aggressiveness on the Yen. NZD Speculators remain heavily net-short NZD (44k shorts vs 23k longs). But last week’s flows show: • +11,287 new longs • +10,792 new shorts → A rebalancing phase rather than a trend reversal; signals uncertainty. COT Conclusion: The structural bias remains bearish for NZDJPY, but the pro-Yen speculative impulse is slowing. This increases the likelihood of a short-term bullish retest before further downside continuation. 3. Seasonality JPY Historically strong in November–December. NZD Neutral-to-weak in November; slightly positive in December but unstable. The seasonal differential favors NZDJPY weakness between late November and early December, consistent with a move back toward autumn lows. 4. Retail Sentiment • 83% short • 17% long This extreme bearish clustering among retail traders increases the probability of a short-term upside squeeze before macro-consistent downside resumes. Implication: ⚠️ Avoid selling in the middle of the range ✔️ Only sell from premium levels and with confirmation 5. Price Action Since August, the pair has been trading inside a structural 84.8–89 range, with highs losing quality and repeated lows — a classic distributive profile. The recent bounce into 88 pushed price back into upper supply without breaking bullish structure, creating an ideal setup for selling rallies. RSI remains neutral/slightly bullish but fails to confirm a new high, suggesting a potential bearish divergence that supports the short bias. 🔻 Primary Bias: SHORT below 88.70–89.00
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
USDJPY breakout: Can the rally extend toward 155?The dollar-yen pair smashed through 150 with one of the strongest breakouts recently, confirming a new technical phase as it trades above the 61.8% Fib retracement. Here’s what’s fuelling the move and what traders should watch next: Dollar strength returned as safe haven flows dominate, even with a US government shutdown, while Japan’s new prime minister’s dovish signals are sending the yen into freefall. Key drivers Safe haven flows : Investors seek shelter in the dollar as global uncertainty rises; DXY index hit a 6-week high. Yield differentials : The Fed/BOJ spread powers further carry trade buying as Japanese rates remain ultra-low. Japanese political shift : PM Takaichi’s win spurs fiscal stimulus and pushes back market hopes for BOJ tightening, deepening yen weakness. Technical breakout : Clean break above multi-year resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement; watch for support validation and continuation toward the next 78.6% Fib at 154.80. What to watch Holding above 150 and 61.8% Fib support sets the stage for a bullish continuation. Profit taking is possible near 153.25–154.80, as RSI shows signs of overbought. Tonight’s FOMC minutes, Thursday’s BoJ/Ueda speech, and political headlines could trigger sharp moves. Cross-pair momentum : EURJPY at record highs, GBPJPY surging, confirming broad-based yen weakness. The bulls are in control as long as USDJPY stays above 151.15–150.50. Pullbacks to support offer opportunities to buy dips, with 154.80 as the next bullish target. Keep stop losses disciplined, and don’t ignore the chance for sharp reversals if intervention or a dramatic shift in sentiment emerges. For more actionable FX insight, follow ThinkMarkets. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
Gold softens after Fed minutes as smokestacks cap every rally Is there any way we can get a December rate cut now? Gold has softened after the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's last interest rate decision. The minutes show there’s no unified push toward cutting, which could make a December move unlikely. Several Federal Reserve officials supported lowering rates in October, but others preferred keeping policy unchanged, and some pushed back firmly against easing. Technically, XAUUSD continues to form smokestacks, printing repeated double-top structures. The price is now hovering around 4,070, sitting under possible short-term resistance at 4,150. XAUUSD losing the 50-day MA further could shift bias more decisively lower.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull Markets