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EURUSD Challenges 1.1740-Resistance Amid Rate Cut ExpectationsDXY weakness appears to have priced in a September rate cut, with the 96 support level still technically significant. It aligns with a 17-year trendline, placing attention on whether the dollar can stage a rebound within its dominant bearish structure. Meanwhile, EURUSD remains capped below the 1.18 resistance, which would need to break to open the path toward 2021 highs above 1.20. With the daily RSI holding neutral-to-bullish territory above the 50 level, EURUSD may extend its rally toward 1.1780 and 1.1830 if it clears 1.1740. A confirmed breakout could open the way toward 2021 highs between 1.20 and 1.23. Downside: A pullback below 1.1690 could find support at 1.1670, 1.1640, and 1.1600. A break below 1.16 may trigger deeper losses toward 1.1480 and 1.1380. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREXcom
Bubble, No Bubble: Stocks Are So Back After Powell Cranks It UpStretched valuations, talks of froth, and overall market fatigue. That’s what investors were saying for stocks (especially those AI plays) up until Powell brought up the vibe that rekindled the animal spirits. Let’s talk about that. 📈 Powell Drops the Mic Markets started last week exhausted. The S&P 500 SP:SPX was wobbling, the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC was shedding like your beautiful ragdoll cat, and traders were probably looking up vacation getaways instead of technical patterns. But then on Friday we all came together to hear one man speak . It was the same neutral, laid back tone, but this one time something was different. As if… a bolder man was on the stage, unafraid to crank it up. Or was it more of an elderly man finally giving the kids what they wanted? In his speech at Jackson Hole, Fed boss Jay Powell acknowledged what markets had been hoping to hear: “The risk of rising prices has diminished.” Translation? The Fed finally sees inflation cooling down. And the labor market might need some help, too. That was all it took. Risk appetite flipped, sending equities way higher into Friday’s close (even though Monday's futures dipped a bit ). The S&P 500 SP:SPX booked a solid 1.5% pop, the Dow Jones TVC:DJI surged 1.9% to a fresh all-time high, and the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC managed to erase much of its weekly losses after a strong 2% increase. Powell didn’t cut rates yet — he just gave markets a few reasons to believe cuts are coming. 🚧 The Job Market Pivot Before Powell spoke, traders were bracing for maybe one rate cut this year, if any. Sticky inflation had the Fed cornered. But Powell flipped the narrative, shifting attention to the labor market instead. The US unemployment rate has climbed nearly a full percentage point over the past year, and job growth is slowing fast, averaging just 35,000 new positions per month over the past three months. Even worse, revisions stripped 258,000 jobs from May and June’s data. For traders, this was the lightbulb moment: a weakening labor market gives Powell the green light to pivot. 🔥 Inflation Still Isn’t Dead Here’s the awkward part: while Powell’s tone eased market fears, the inflation problem hasn’t magically vanished. Core CPI is still running 3% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s 2% target, even as the headline CPI ECONOMICS:USCPI stood at 2.7% for July . Meanwhile, wholesale prices ECONOMICS:USPPI — often a precursor to consumer price trends — surged 0.9% last month , marking their fastest monthly jump in three years. Powell is walking a tightrope: move too quickly on cuts, and inflation could flare up again; wait too long, and the job market weakens further. The stakes are high, and the balance fragile. 🎈 Bubble Talk, Again Every time stocks rip higher, the “bubble” debate resurfaces. And honestly? It’s hard to ignore it this time. AI stocks are priced like they’ve already rewired how the world works, and the Nasdaq’s relentless rally looks almost too clean. But here’s a reality check. We’ve never had a big market crisis for the past 16 years. March 2020? Recovered in a few months. April’s mini-crash? Erased in weeks. Markets seem determined to brush off every scare and buy the dip. Powell’s pivot only reinforced that attitude: traders don’t care about stretched valuations if the Fed is hinting at cheaper money ahead. 🤖 Nvidia’s Market, Nvidia’s Rules That’s how we move forward to what’s next. Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA drops earnings on August 27 ( Earnings Calendar for reference). And because this is Nvidia’s market and we all live in it, expectations are sky-high. Analysts are projecting just under $46 billion in revenue and $1 per share in earnings . But the real focus? Forward guidance. If Nvidia signals a blockbuster Q3 — something in the ballpark of $54 billion in sales — it could keep fueling the AI mania and push the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 to fresh highs. But if the numbers disappoint, this entire rally could wobble. Considering Nvidia has added more than $3 trillion in market cap since 2023, it’s no exaggeration to say the stock’s earnings could set the tone for everything else. 🦁 Animal Spirits Are Back Powell’s softer tone and the Nvidia hype machine have combined to reawaken animal spirits across Wall Street. That makes for a good example on how you can shift from doom-posting about stagflation to refreshing the ATH charts in less than 48 hours. The S&P and the Dow are at or near record highs, the Nasdaq is eyeing another breakout. What’s not to like? The rally isn’t bulletproof. It’s being driven as much by vibes as fundamentals right now. Rate cuts haven’t happened yet, the labor market is fragile, and inflation hasn’t fully cooled. The market appears to be trading on optimism — and optimism can turn fast. 🏁 The Bottom Line Jerome Powell didn’t announce a rate cut, but he did something almost better: he opened the door a bit wider. By acknowledging softer labor data and reduced inflation risks, he revived traders’ appetite and gave permission to believe the rally has legs. But this story has two big hinges: Nvidia has to deliver, and inflation has to behave. One earnings miss or a hot CPI print, and this animal spirit revival could fade as quickly as it started. Off to you : Are you long and excited about the outlook? Or you’re in the bear camp and looking for your chance to short this market? Share your views in the comments!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
15
Gold Prices Overview of Primary Catalyst : September 2025⚡️ Gold: Consolidation Before the Next Move Gold set fresh records earlier this year and now sits in a tight post–Jackson Hole range around $3,360–$3,380/oz as rate-cut odds jumped and the dollar eased back. Spot was ~$3,368 this morning, slightly off Friday’s spike after Powell opened the door to a September cut. ________________________________________ 1) Fed Path & Real Yields — 9.5/10 (Bullish for gold) Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks highlighted rising labor-market risks and explicitly “opened the door” to a September cut. Futures now price a high probability of an initial -25 bps move with more to follow into year-end. Lower policy rates/real yields remain the single strongest tailwind for non-yielding gold. 2) U.S. Dollar Trend — 7.5/10 (Bullish for gold) The DXY slipped toward the high-97s after Powell’s dovish tilt and remains soft versus recent peaks, reducing a key headwind to non-USD buyers. If the dollar rebound stalls, gold’s upside path stays cleaner. 3) Central-Bank Buying / De-Dollarization — 8.5/10 (Bullish) Official-sector demand stays structurally strong. Global central banks remain on track for another ~1,000t year, with China’s PBoC extending purchases for a ninth straight month. This “sticky” bid continues to underwrite dips. 4) Trade/Tariff Shock (incl. U.S. tariffs on bullion) — 8.0/10 (Bullish) The broad U.S. tariff regime (10% baseline, higher on targeted goods) is inflationary at the margin; crucially, imports of 1kg/100oz gold bars were swept into the rules, temporarily snarling Swiss shipments and roiling COMEX/LBMA logistics until guidance is clarified. Result: fatter location/financing premia and periodic price dislocations that tend to support spot. 5) ETF & Institutional Flows — 7.5/10 (Bullish) After years of outflows, ETF inflows in the first half of 2025 were the strongest in 5 years (~$38B; +397t), with July showing further additions. GLD holdings are back near ~957t. Continued inflows amplify macro moves. 6) Systematic/CTA & Positioning Dynamics — 6.5/10 (Mixed → Volatility) CTAs and options flow are magnifying swings around key levels ($3,350–$3,420). Upside call demand is persistent, meaning whipsaws remain likely as trend-following systems react to dollar/yield shifts. 7) China Property & Growth Stress — 6.0/10 (Bullish) The Evergrande delisting and deepening Country Garden losses underscore a property slump that keeps risk appetite in check and supports defensive assets. Weak housing drags on jewelry demand but typically supports investment demand for bullion. 8) U.S. Fiscal Risk & Credit Quality — 6.0/10 (Bullish) The May downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit and ongoing wide deficits keep a slow-burn bid under gold. Any wobble in auctions or debt-ceiling theatrics would push this higher. 9) Jewelry & Tech Demand — 5.0/10 (Slightly Bearish/neutral short-term) Record prices hit Q2 jewelry volumes (-14% y/y to 341t), though India shows early signs of seasonal revival into festivals. Tech demand dipped ~2% y/y amid electronics softness. Physical demand is a brake on parabolic rallies. 10) Geopolitics (Ukraine, Middle East, Taiwan risk, etc.) — 5.5/10 (Event-Bullish) Headlines remain volatile—Israeli strikes on Iran-aligned Houthis and ongoing Ukraine politics keep a latent safe-haven premium. Spikes are event-driven unless escalation persists. ________________________________________ 🌐 Other Catalysts to Watch • Crypto Cross-Flows (5/10): Sharp crypto drawdowns can funnel short-term interest into gold, though correlation remains inconsistent. • Bullion Logistics & Refining (New): U.S. tariff ambiguity on kilobars introduces intermittent premiums and arbitrage opportunities between Zurich–London–NY. • Physical Supply Disruptions (4/10): Always idiosyncratic; currently secondary to macro. | Rank | Catalyst | Score/10 | Current Impact | Direction | Notes | | ---- | ------------------------------------------ | -------: | -------------- | ------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------ | | 1 | Fed path & real yields | **9.5** | Very High | **Bullish** | Dovish tilt; cuts now live for Sept. | | 2 | Central-bank buying | **8.5** | High | **Bullish** | Ongoing official demand; PBoC keeps adding. | | 3 | Trade/tariff shock (incl. bullion tariffs) | **8.0** | High | **Bullish** | Broad tariffs + bullion rules raise premia & inflation risk. | | 4 | U.S. dollar trend | **7.5** | High | **Bullish** | DXY softer post-Jackson Hole; less drag on gold. | | 5 | ETF/institutional flows | **7.5** | High | **Bullish** | Biggest inflows in 5 yrs; GLD holdings high. | | 6 | Systematic/CTA flows | **6.5** | Moderate | **Mixed** | Options/CTA activity driving overshoots both ways. | | 7 | China property stress | **6.0** | Moderate | **Bullish** | Structural drag supports safe-haven demand. | | 8 | U.S. fiscal/credit risk | **6.0** | Moderate | **Bullish** | Downgrade + deficits maintain hedge demand. | | 9 | Jewelry/tech demand | **5.0** | Low | **Neutral → Slightly Bearish** | Jewelry volumes fell 14% y/y; festivals could revive. | | 10 | Geopolitics (broad) | **5.5** | Low–Mod | **Bullish (event-driven)** | Episodic; not the primary driver now. |
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
36
Bitcoin back at 112k: Bullish Illusion or Bearish Truth?1. What happened lately In my previous BTC analysis, I mentioned that as long as the 110k zone holds, the bullish structure technically remains intact. On Friday, Powell’s speech lifted the market precisely from that zone, as the possibility of rate cuts injected optimism across risk assets, including crypto. 2. The psychological trap But here’s the question I keep asking myself: is this genuine strength, or just wishful thinking? I’ve said it many times — trade what you see, not what you hope for . And what the charts are showing right now is not as promising as the initial bounce might suggest. 3. Technical signals - BTC quickly returned to the 112k support level, erasing the Friday rally. - Price remains under the trendline that started in April. - The bounce looks more like a retest of broken levels than a new impulsive leg. - Structurally, we can even identify a head and shoulders pattern with the neckline around the 110k zone, although not perfectly shaped. 4. Reading between the lines It’s hard for me to believe that Bitcoin came back to the same support just to give latecomers another easy buying opportunity. More likely, the “rate cut euphoria” was dead cat bounce, and the market is telling us something different than the headlines. 5. Conclusion At this moment, I remain neutral in my positioning but leaning bearish in my outlook. Optimism is tempting, but discipline requires us to trust the charts, not our hopes. And... if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck… it’s probably a duck. 🦆
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
7
USD/CAD: The Perfect Storm for a Bullish BreakoutUSD/CAD is consolidating above 1.3850 after a strong bullish impulse. The technical structure shows: A breakout from the summer bullish channel projecting towards 1.3950–1.4050, a key weekly resistance zone. RSI remains neutral but strengthening, with no signs of immediate overextension. Institutional demand around 1.3700 firmly rejected the downside, signaling strong long accumulation. 📌 Key levels: Support at 1.3750 / 1.3700 – Resistance at 1.3950 / 1.4050. Commitments of Traders (COT) USD Index: Non-commercial longs increasing (+1,330) with a slight reduction in shorts. Moderately bullish bias for USD. CAD Futures: Significant increase in non-commercial shorts (+7,966) while longs decline (-2,691). Institutions are clearly selling CAD. 📌 This reinforces the bullish bias on USD/CAD, with speculative positioning strongly in favor of the US Dollar. Seasonality (August–September) Historically, August tends to be neutral/slightly bearish for USD/CAD, but September shows a strong bullish pattern, with consistent positive averages over the last 10–20 years. 📌 This supports a continuation of the bullish trend in the coming weeks, especially towards the 1.40+ area. Retail Sentiment 78% of retail traders are short on USD/CAD, with an average entry price at 1.3780. Only 22% are positioned long. 📌 Classic contrarian signal: excessive retail bearishness increases the probability of further upside. ✅ Trading Outlook The overall picture shows alignment across technicals, COT, seasonality, and sentiment. USD/CAD maintains a bullish bias: Primary scenario: Extension towards 1.3950 and then 1.4050, a major weekly supply zone. Alternative scenario: Controlled pullback to 1.3800–1.3750 before resuming higher. Invalidation: Daily close below 1.3700 would open space towards 1.3550. 📌 Bias: Long USD/CAD towards 1.3950–1.4050.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
9
Silver Roadmap: Key Supply at 38.8 or a Breakout to 39.6?Price is consolidating around 38.0, after recovering from July’s breakdown, currently sitting just below the weekly supply/resistance zone at 38.3–38.8, with liquidity resting above 39.2–39.6. The nearest and strongest daily demand lies at 36.6–35.5 (origin of the prior impulse and multi-touch base). Momentum/RSI on the daily chart is neutral (not overbought), with the latest rally built on shallow pullbacks → a favorable context for potential “stop-hunts” above supply before the market makes a decision. COT (Aug 12): Non-commercials remain net long but have been trimming positions (longs ↓, shorts ↑), while commercials stay net short → bullish positioning is cooling, often a precursor to range-bound or corrective phases. Retail sentiment: roughly 52% short / 48% long, not at extremes → no strong contrarian signal. Seasonality: August tends to be slightly bullish for silver on 10–20 year averages, while September is historically negative → current tailwind may turn into a headwind ahead. 🔎 Bias: Neutral with a bearish tilt at 38.3–38.8, unless a breakout is confirmed; elevated risk of false breaks toward 39.3–39.6 before potential downside rotation. Key catalysts to watch: DXY and real yields (inverse correlation), gold performance, US macro releases (CPI, ISM, NFP), and Chinese data (PMIs/industrial growth). A stronger USD or rising yields would favor the bearish case from 38.8, while a weaker USD combined with a gold breakout would increase the odds of a liquidity sweep toward 39.6.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
EUR/CHF: The Trap Is Set!EUR/CHF Full Analysis 1. Seasonality EUR: Historically weak in August–September. The 20y and 15y datasets confirm a negative seasonal bias in September. CHF: Stronger tendency in August–September, historically supported as a safe-haven currency, with September statistically positive. 👉 Seasonal bias: short EUR/CHF (weak EUR vs strong CHF). 2. Retail Sentiment 55% of retail traders are long EUR/CHF, while 45% are short. 👉 Slight long retail positioning = contrarian bearish signal. 3. COT Report (19 August 2025) Euro: Non-commercial net long at 252k vs 133k short (+6.4k new longs, +3.1k new shorts). Still bullish momentum, but slowing down as commercials are selling. CHF: Non-commercial net short (6k longs vs 33k shorts). Strong bearish imbalance, but commercials are long CHF (hedging), reinforcing CHF’s safe-haven status in case of risk-off correction. 👉 COT shows overweight Euro longs and heavy CHF shorts, raising risk of a future reversal in favor of CHF. 4. Technicals Structure: Clear rejection from weekly supply zone 0.9435–0.9450 with a bearish engulfing. Daily RSI cooling after strong impulse → room for further downside. Possible pullback toward 0.9415–0.9425 (Fib 0.62–0.705) before continuation lower. Technical targets: 0.9330–0.9315 (daily demand zone), extended to 0.9260. Invalidation: Weekly close above 0.9450. 📌 Conclusion: Seasonality, retail sentiment, and price action align for a bearish EUR/CHF bias. The COT highlights an overcrowded long Euro vs short CHF positioning, opening space for a structural rebound of the Swiss Franc. Technicals confirm: wait for a pullback to 0.9420 to short, targeting 0.9330/0.9260.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EURUSD Breakdown or Double Bottom? Catalysts at Jackson Hole!EURUSD has broken below the key 1.16 support ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, raising the stakes for both bulls and bears as markets become more aware of the likelihood of a hawkish stance. But will it be the case? Let's see what the possible scenarios are at play. Bearish Catalysts : Hawkish Fed Signals: Recent FOMC minutes and a potential hawkish tone from Chair Powell could push EURUSD lower. Rate cut odds for December have dropped sharply, and further Fed focus on inflation may accelerate downside. Technical Breakdown: The loss of 1.16 opens the door to 1.1530, 1.1460, and possibly 1.14. No clear bullish divergence on RSI suggests more downside risk. Geopolitical Risks: Uncertainty around the Ukraine ceasefire could weigh further on the euro. Bullish Catalysts : Oversold Conditions: EURUSD is approaching oversold territory, with a potential double bottom forming near 1.1530/1.1460. Dovish Surprise: If Powell signals concerns over the labour market or hints at a pause, a short-covering rally could target 1.16 and above. ECB Commentary: Any unexpected hawkishness from ECB President Lagarde could support the euro. Key Levels to Watch : Support: 1.1530, 1.1460, 1.1400 Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1660 Trading Plan : Volatility is likely post-symposium. Bears may look for breakdowns and rallies to resistance for entries, while bulls might watch for reversal signals at key supports if the Fed surprises dovishly. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
3
XAUUSD – The Calm Before the Storm (D1 Weekly Plan)🔥 Market Pulse Last week closed with a powerful bullish D1 candle, fueled by FED’s policy hints & Trump’s latest remarks. This wasn’t just news-driven – it was a liquidity shift, a signal that the next big directional play is loading. ⚔️ Key Battle Zones (MMFLOW View) End Game Demand Zone (3273) → The last stronghold for buyers. Power Reaction Zone (3316 – 3340) → First defense line where bulls are likely to step in hard. Key Mid Zone (3357 – 3372) → The “gateway” level that decides if momentum will sustain. Power Reaction Zone (3399) → Bears will strike back here. End Game Supply Zone (3435) → The final battlefield – where the big game ends. 📈 Scenarios for the Week Ahead Primary Plan (Bullish bias): Gold may dip into 3316 – 3340 before resuming its upward leg. Holding this zone opens the path to 3399 → 3435. Alternative Plan (Risk case): A break below 3316 could drag price back to 3273 before any bigger move. 🎯 Trading Approach Buy on dips inside reaction zones. Targets: 3399 – 3435. Protective stop: Below 3273. 🚨 Final Takeaway: Gold is entering a critical phase – this isn’t just another bounce, it could be the start of a medium-term breakout cycle. Bulls have the upper hand, but both sides are preparing for the showdown. Stay ready for a volatility spike.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
2
Powell Delivers at Jackson Hole - NVDA and PCE Up NextNearly a 200% ATR move today in the S&P SPY didn't close beyond all-time highs QQQ didn't close beyond all-time highs DIA did close above all-time highs IWM continues its strong rally for August I'm noticing some serious rotation into small cap, mid cap, and seeing the markets allocate outside of Mag7, Tech, and AI Powell all but guaranteed a September rate cut and the market loved it - yet prices aren't necessarily higher (yet). I still think the Aug-Oct window is ripe for a small correction and pullback to offer up better positioning for end of year NVDA Earnings next week Wednesday US PCE and Core PCE Friday to close out the month I'm curious if the SPX 6500 resistance level will continue to hold firm - let's see Thanks for watching!!!
TVC:US10YLong
by ChrisPulver
XAUUSD – US Session Weekly Close Update - FED NEWS📰 Macro Outlook The Federal Reserve remains firm on its 2% inflation target while keeping unemployment low. The US labor market is showing signs of weakness: job supply stagnates, demand falls → higher unemployment risk. New tariffs could push inflation higher while also slowing down economic growth. Fed gradually moves away from FAIT, focusing back on a strict 2% inflation goal. Powell didn’t promise rate cuts, but hinted at possible policy easing in September if economic conditions align. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Buy Retest Zone: 3343 – 3345 Mid-term Resistance: 3377 – 3380 Target Buy Zone: 3396 – 3400 ✅ Primary Scenario (Bullish Bias) After a strong breakout from the downtrend, price is likely to retest 3343 – 3345 to build momentum. Holding above this zone opens the path to 3377 and potentially 3396 – 3400. 🔻 Alternative Scenario A clean break below 3340 with an H1 close could push price lower toward 3325 – 3320 before a possible recovery. 🎯 Trading Plan for the US Session BUY on retest 3343 – 3345 SL: below 3338 TP: 3377 → 3396 → 3400 Short-term SELL only if strong rejection appears around 3396 – 3400. ⚡ As liquidity thins out toward the weekend, it’s safer to follow the bullish momentum, scale positions wisely, and avoid chasing price near key resistances.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
What Traders Should Expect from Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech?Today, all focus is on Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, where traders will look for hints about the future direction of monetary policy. The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium has often marked major policy framework shifts and signals of immediate policy changes. Today it may be no different, with one key factor in the background: the heavy pressure on the independence of the Federal Reserve. From the 2008 financial crisis to the Covid-19 shock, US core inflation remained subdued, well below the 2% target, despite ultra-low rates and massive quantitative easing. The average core PCE over this period was 1.52%, with only a few months above 2% in the entire 12-year span. With Covid, that low-inflation era came to an end. Supply chain bottlenecks, changes in consumer behavior, enormous government spending to counter the slowdown, labor market imbalances, energy shocks from the Ukraine–Russia war, and more QE all combined to create the biggest global inflation surge in decades for an average of 3.43% for US. In the US, the divergence was sharper due to much larger fiscal spending under both Trump and Biden. The economy recovered more quickly, but inflation proved stickier. As inflation falling towards 2%, tariff effects then stalled the disinflation process. After Covid, the Federal Reserve changed its framework and introduced FAIT (Flexible Average Inflation Targeting). Under FAIT, the Fed no longer forced inflation back to 2% quickly but allowed overshooting to compensate for the 2008–2020 period of below-target inflation, giving more weight to fixing labor market problems. However, as seen in the data, the 3.43% average core inflation of the past five years risks unsettling long-term inflation expectations and increasing the chance that higher inflation becomes anchored. What is Expected in Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech? Powell has been working on policy framework changes for some time and looking at the last two years of Fed decisions, the central bank has already started to move away from FAIT. Today, Powell is expected to revert from FAIT back to the previous standard of flexible inflation targeting. This would signal greater emphasis on price stability, unless the labor market suffers a sharp downturn. Powell may also announce steps to improve transparency. Markets might initially see this shift away from FAIT as hawkish, but in reality the Fed has already been moving in that direction for some time, at least in its decisions if not its language. Much of the market impact may already be priced in. As for short-term policy, the September meeting will be crucial. Just days ago, markets were considering the possibility of a surprise 50-basis-point cut. After hot inflation data and strong PMI readings, even a 25-basis-point cut is priced at only 73%. If not for large payrolls revisions, the chance of a cut would be far lower, but the revisions have changed the outlook. Still, key data is due before September, including PCE, CPI, and the payrolls report. Powell may avoid giving a clear signal today and instead keep the option of a September cut open if conditions warrant. How Might Markets React to Powell? Reverting from FAIT is inherently hawkish, but markets may have priced in some of the effect already. Still, it remains broadly dollar-positive. The key will be how seriously Powell addresses weakness in the jobs market. If he does not see labor conditions as deteriorating meaningfully, the Fed has little reason to cut rates while both goods and services inflation are still picking up, even though shelter inflation is easing. If markets interpret Powell’s view on jobs and the framework change as not hawkish enough, profit-taking among dollar bulls could emerge. However, if Powell signals that recent job weakness is just one or two data points and the Fed remains in a good place, the message would be that no urgent changes are needed and it will be dollar positive.
TVC:DXY
by ftdsystem
Watching for a Pullback Entry on EUROFOREXCOM:EURUSD 🇪🇺💶 The euro remains under pressure, with EUR/USD hovering near a two-week low. Investors are cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, which is widely expected to provide new insights into the central bank’s policy direction. 📉 Market participants are holding back from major moves until they hear whether Powell will strike a hawkish or dovish tone. ⚖️ Traders are specifically looking for clarity on the future path of U.S. interest rates. Concerns are growing that Powell could push back against expectations for an imminent rate cut, which would reinforce dollar strength and weigh further on the euro. 💵✨ A more hawkish message could extend EUR/USD weakness, while any dovish hints may allow the pair to rebound from current lows. 🇪🇺💶The euro slipped to a two-week low versus the dollar, testing the 50-day EMA after hawkish comments from Fed officials. Great trading day everyone! What is your opinion about EURO today?
Long
by ProfessorSingapore
Japan's inflation rate expected to ease, yen dipsThe Japanese yen is slightly lower on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.87, up 0.39% on the day. Japan releases the July inflation report on Friday. The markets will be especially interested in the core rate, which is expected to ease to 3.0% y/y, from 3.3% in June. Core CPI includes energy but excludes fresh food. Core CPI has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years but the central bank has been slow to raise interest rates. BoJ Governor Ueda has said that the Bank will not raise rates until underlying inflation, which is generated by domestic demand and wages, is sustainably at 2%. The BoJ raised rates to 0.5% in January but took its foot off the rate-hike pedal when Donald Trump became President and imposed a hard-hitting tariff policy which shook up the financial markets. Now that the US and Japan have reached a trade agreement and greatly reduced the uncertainty over tariffs, a major obstacle to raising rates has been removed. The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the July meeting on Wednesday. The Fed's decision at the meeting to maintain rates was widely expected but the meeting made headlines when two FOMC members went against the majority and voted for a rate cut. This was the first time in over 30 years that more than one member voted against a rate decision. The minutes reflected this dissension, noting the differing views on the Fed's dual mandate of inflation and employment. The economy faces an upside risk to inflation and a downside risk to employment, complicating rate decisions. At the meeting, the majority judged higher inflation as the greater risk while the minority believed that the deterioration in the labour market was the greater risk. The Fed is widely expected to lower rates in September, after holding rates since December 2024.
by OANDA
Traders Go Quiet Ahead of Jackson Hole — What Will Powell Say?Markets have been eerily quiet this week. Not because traders suddenly discovered meditation, but because everyone is waiting for one man in Wyoming to make things move. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the man who moves markets with a simple “Good afternoon,” is about to step onto the stage at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. And when he does, markets will hang on every word — because it’s his final speech as Fed boss at the premium event. ⛰️ Jackson Hole: Where Hiking Boots Meet Basis Points The Jackson Hole conference isn’t your average PowerPoint snoozefest. Each year, central bankers from around the world swap suits for Patagonia fleeces and gather in Wyoming’s Grand Teton National Park. Think Davos, but with more elk. This year’s theme? “Labor Markets in Transition.” Translation: the Fed wants to talk demographics, productivity, and immigration — the forces shaping how Americans work and how the economy grows. But make no mistake: nobody’s tuning in for a TED Talk on labor force participation rates. They want Powell’s take on interest rates. 🎯 Powell’s Big Moment Powell’s speech may only run about 15 minutes (he’s not known for monologues), but the stakes couldn’t be higher. His term as Fed chair ends in May, and President Donald Trump has spent most of this year taking swings at him — calling him a “major LOSER” and grumbling that the Fed is moving “Too Late” on rate cuts. Trump has even floated the idea of firing Powell early, which, technically speaking, isn’t supposed to happen. But this is 2025, and “not supposed to happen” has lost most of its meaning. So, Jackson Hole could be Powell’s last best chance to lock in a legacy: defending the Fed’s independence while signaling where rates are headed next. ⛅️ Markets Already Have a Guess Wall Street isn’t exactly sitting in suspense. Interest-rate swaps are pricing in an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in September, with two full cuts baked in before the year is out. Why? Because the data leaves Powell little wiggle room: Jobs market: Recent revisions show weaker-than-thought employment growth . Maximum employment? Not quite. Inflation: July’s consumer price index came in at 2.7% year-on-year — stable, but not scary enough to justify keeping rates where they are forever. Tariffs: Trump’s sweeping duties could pressure inflation further, but they’re also weighing on growth. Powell’s challenge is threading the needle between those forces. Translation: the Fed looks ready to flip from “higher for longer” to “cutting season.” 🧘‍♂️ Traders on Mute If you think markets look a little sleepy, you’re not wrong. On Monday, the S&P 500 basically took a nap , slipping 0.01% as traders sat on their hands. Tuesday was even worse with big tech nosediving all day long. It’s not just Powell they’re waiting for. Roughly 95% of S&P 500 companies have now reported earnings, (mandatory note: catch all earnings dates in the Earnings Calendar ) with more than 80% beating expectations. Companies have been surprisingly nimble, offsetting tariffs and riding the weaker dollar . Yet despite the blowout earnings season, nobody wants to make big moves until Powell clears the air. Call it the pre-Jackson Hole silence — the calm before the potential volatility storm. 🥊 Powell vs. Trump There’s also political theater baked into this. Trump has made no secret of his desire for lower rates to juice growth and pump markets. Powell, however, has tried to keep the Fed above the political fray. But that balancing act has been messy. Lower too quickly, and Powell risks stoking more inflation. Hold too high, and he risks slowing the labor market just as it’s showing cracks. Either way, he’ll be accused of playing politics. This isn’t just about economics. It’s about central bank independence — a fancy way of asking: Can Powell make decisions without getting steamrolled by the White House? 🔮 What to Watch For Here’s what traders will parse in his speech: Tone: Does Powell sound more dovish (hinting at cuts) or still hawkish (concerned about tariffs fueling inflation)? Framework: Will he unveil a new policy strategy for inflation and jobs? Forward guidance: Any nods to September’s meeting or beyond will be amplified a thousand times on trading desks worldwide. In other words, the market doesn’t just want Powell’s words. It wants the subtext and the context. 🚀 Why It Matters for Traders For traders (yes, you), Powell’s Jackson Hole moment has real portfolio consequences: Equities: A dovish Powell could extend the market’s record run — the S&P 500 and Nasdaq already logged new all-time highs this summer. Bonds: Rate cuts could mean yields falling, bond prices rising. Treasuries might not be the snooze trade they’ve been. Dollar: Lower rates could push the greenback down, offering a boost to commodities and emerging markets. Lower rates = lower deposit yields = less appeal to hold greenback. Crypto: Yes, even Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD cares. A dovish Fed means more liquidity sloshing around — which historically finds its way into risk assets. 🏁 The Takeaway Markets are quiet now, but don’t expect them to stay that way. Powell’s Jackson Hole speech is shaping up as one of the most important of his career — maybe his swan song as Fed chair. Off to you : Here’s a question (or two). Will he go dovish, handing traders the rate cuts they crave? Or will he stand firm, reminding everyone that the Fed won’t be bullied by politics? Share your thoughts in the comments!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
21
Market Sentiment Pulls Nasdaq to the 23,200 SupportOn the daily chart, Nasdaq’s RSI has pulled back to the 50 neutral zone, providing potential support for the recent correction. Price action is holding above the 23,200-support, while the 4-hour RSI is rebounding from oversold conditions. If 23,200 continues to hold, Nasdaq may recover to test 23,500, 23,700, and potentially 24,100. A confirmed move above these levels could signal renewed momentum toward the 25,000-record. A clean hold below 23-200 may extend the decline towards key support levels between 22,900-22,700 for another long-term bullish positioning opportunity, or deeper downturn risks. Key Events in Sight: - FOMC Minutes (Today) - Fed Speech (Friday) - Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by FOREXcom
USDCAD Challenges the 1.3880 ResistanceUSDCAD is in a bullish breakout mode, holding firmly above 1.37 and breaking out from a one-month consolidation range. It is now testing the 1.3880 resistance. A clean hold above this level could confirm a breakout toward the 1.40 target — the projected completion of the current pattern. The 3-day RSI is trending above the neutral 50 level, reinforcing dollar strength. However, with key resistance in sight, A pullback below 1.3840 may revisit the 1.37 support, possibly triggering either a rebound or a deeper move back toward 1.36 and 1.35 (the 2025 lows). Key Events in Sight: - FOMC Minutes (today) - Fed Powell Speech (Friday) - Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREXcom
GOLD'S likely scenarios on Jackson Hall Symposium (AI ANALYSIS)Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s stance on interest rates significantly influences gold prices due to gold’s sensitivity to monetary policy, real interest rates, and the U.S. dollar. Below is a concise analysis of likely scenarios and projections for gold prices under bearish, flat, and bullish rate outlooks, based on economic principles and market dynamics observed up to August 20, 2025. Powell’s Rate Outlook | **Gold Price Outlook Bearish (Expects Rate Hikes)** | **Bearish**: Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-yielding asset, leading to price declines. A stronger U.S. dollar, often a result of tighter policy, further pressures gold prices. **Projection**: Gold could drop 5-10% from current levels (~$2,500/oz) to $2,250-$2,350/oz, depending on the magnitude of hikes signaled (e.g., 50-100 bps). Safe-haven demand may mitigate losses if geopolitical risks persist. Flat (No Change in Rates)** | **Neutral to Slightly Bullish**: Stable rates maintain the status quo, with gold supported by ongoing uncertainties (e.g., inflation, geopolitics). Real yields and the dollar would likely remain steady, allowing gold to hold or modestly appreciate. **Projection**: Gold prices likely range-bound between $2,450-$2,600/oz, with potential for slight gains if inflation expectations rise or the dollar weakens. Bullish (Expects Rate Cuts)** | **Bullish**: Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and weaken the dollar, boosting gold’s appeal. Increased liquidity and inflation fears further drive demand. **Projection**: Gold could rally 8-12% to $2,700-$2,800/oz, especially if cuts are aggressive (e.g., 75-100 bps) or if economic slowdown fears intensify safe-haven buying. | Key Factors Across Scenarios Dollar Strength: Inverse correlation with gold; a stronger dollar (bearish outlook) suppresses prices, while a weaker dollar (bullish outlook) supports gains. Real Yields: Rising real yields (bearish) hurt gold; falling or negative yields (bullish) enhance its appeal. Market Sentiment: Geopolitical risks or equity market volatility could amplify gold’s safe-haven demand, moderating bearish outcomes or boosting bullish ones. Inflation Expectations: Persistent inflation supports gold in flat or bullish scenarios, as investors seek hedges. **Note**: Projections assume no major external shocks (e.g., geopolitical crises or unexpected economic data). Real-time market reactions to Powell’s statements, such as at the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium (August 2025), could introduce volatility. If you’d like, I can search X or the web for recent sentiment or data to refine this analysis. What's your thoughts?
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSD
by Junmadayag
GOLD: Squeeze to Rate Cut, then Blast-Off to $4200?The price of gold, a classic safe-haven asset, is currently in a state of flux due to several interconnected factors. Looking at future events and fundamentals, we can anticipate how they might impact its price points. Powell's Rate Cut An anticipated rate cut from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on 17SEP25 is a key bullish signal for gold. Lower interest rates typically decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making them more attractive compared to interest-bearing bonds. If JPow begins to drop rates in September (and is dovish in comments regarding further cuts), we could begin to see the beginning of gold's next measured move to around $4200 (see purple target). If JPow doesn't cut, doesn't cut enough, or cuts but is extremely hawkish towards further cuts; expect a pullback towards the 200-day moving average and further ranging for a period until the next Fed Chairman is confirmed. President Trump has recently called for the Federal Reserve to make significant cuts; in one instance stating that rates should be lowered by three percentage points from their current range. As of 19AUG25, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated 11 possible candidates for the next Fed Chair position; expect that when confirmed, the next Fed Chair may significantly reduce rates (but do not assume the next Fed Chair will cut as deep as three percentage points). BRICS Monetary Competition Additionally, the push for de-dollarization by BRICS nations is a significant long-term driver for gold. Countries like China and Russia are actively increasing their gold reserves to diversify away from the U.S. dollar, creating sustained demand. This monetary competition fundamentally alters gold's role, positioning it as a key component of a new, multi-polar financial system. As central banks continue to accumulate gold, it strengthens the metal's standing as a universal reserve asset. This trend is likely to provide a strong floor for gold prices around its 200-day moving average, and any significant moves toward a gold-backed BRICS currency could lead to a monumental re-evaluation of gold's value, potentially pushing its price to the $4,000/oz range or higher over time.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Assume_Diptopia
1
DXY Consolidates SidewaysTVC:DXY continues to consolidate and be held between a Resistance and Support Between: Resistance @ 98.2 - 98.3 Support @ 97.75 - 97.6 If TVC:DXY breaks the Local Resistance, this will see the USD gain strength temporarily til the Next Resistance Level @ 98.5 - 98.95 If TVC:DXY breaks the Local Support, this will see the USD lose strength temporarily til the Next Support Level @ 97.3 - 97.1 Fundamentally, Tariffs will continue to effect the underlying inflation issue USD deals with along with expectations gaining of not only 1 but a few Interest Cuts could come from the Federal Reserve before the end of the year! This could severely weaken USD!
TVC:DXY
by Novi_Fibonacci
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 19, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 19, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines Global markets tread water ahead of Jackson Hole. Asian equities slipped while European futures edged up on signs of diplomatic progress in the Russia–Ukraine crisis, as markets await Fed Chair Powell’s keynote. AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX still anchored to central-bank risk tone. Jackson Hole in focus. Investors are positioning for signals of a dovish tilt or rate cut cues in Powell’s speech later this week—data releases are in the shadow of event risk. Home Depot earnings loom. Retail heavyweight Home Depot reports today; strong results could buoy equities, while a miss would fan caution on consumer resilience. 💼 Key Market Developments Meta and Palo Alto highlight tech divergences. Meta shares slipped 2.3% on AI-leaning costs and metaverse skepticism, while Palo Alto surged 5% with robust Q4 and 2026 outlook—creating bifurcated leadership in tech. Stagflation & AI risk lurk. Analysts warn of stagflation threats and fading AI momentum as catalysts for a broader pullback—S&P 500 still up ~10% YTD, but vulnerable. ⏱ Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 📅 Tuesday, August 19, 2025 Canada Inflation Rate (July): Expected 2.0% y/y — a minor but global inflation cue U.S. Building Permits (July): Forecast ~1.39M — housing sector signpost ahead of Powell’s speech Corporate Highlight: Home Depot (HD) earnings — earnings and commentary on inflation, tariffs, demand dynamics ⚠ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #JacksonHole #Fed #SPY #SPX #HD #HomeDepot #JacksonHole #inflation #earnings #tech #AI #SP500
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 18–22, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 18–22, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏔️ Jackson Hole (Thu–Sat): Chair Powell headlines the Kansas City Fed symposium—path-of-rates + growth vs. inflation = front-page risk for AMEX:SPY SP:SPX TVC:DXY $TLT. 📝 FOMC Minutes (Wed): Deeper read on July meeting dissents and tariff/inflation views—rate-cut odds in play. 🛒 Retail Heavyweights: Earnings updates from NYSE:WMT NYSE:HD NYSE:TGT NYSE:LOW NASDAQ:ROST = real-time consumer pulse for AMEX:XRT and broader risk tone. 🏠 Housing Check: Starts/Permits + Existing Home Sales frame construction demand and affordability; watch AMEX:XHB and long rates. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 📊 📅 Tue, Aug 19 • Housing Starts & Building Permits (8:30 AM) 📅 Wed, Aug 20 • FOMC Minutes (July meeting) (2:00 PM) 📅 Thu, Aug 21 • Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM) • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM) • S&P Global Flash PMIs (Mfg/Services) (9:45 AM) • Existing Home Sales (Jul) (10:00 AM) • Conference Board Leading Index (10:00 AM) • Jackson Hole Symposium begins (all day; speeches through Sat) 📅 Fri, Aug 22 • No major U.S. releases (focus: Jackson Hole headlines + positioning) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #FOMC #JacksonHole #housing #PMI #retailsales #SPY #SPX #DXY #TLT #XHB #XRT
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao