While it might not be the subprime/GFC “SELL” kind of situation, the real estate sector is undoubtedly facing headwinds. With the most recent Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) printing higher than consensus, maybe it’s about time we take the Fed’s hawkish commentary more seriously. To review, let us look at...
As mentioned before, so long as DXY has not reach the finishing line, which is the higher time frame upside objective, Risk Off will still be in play. Same narrative, different pair. What happens when DXY finally gets to the upside objective? We sit sideline and study what it wants to do next. There are only 3 possible direction of the market, Bullish / Bearish /...
Here are some of the notes I had put down since 2020. I am wondering how long the EUR/USD can hold above the 1.05 lvl . The Federal Reserve is on a path to keep hiking, in hopes of combating inflation and winning on that front. The ECB is stuck between a rock and a hard place as inflation is still extremely high and the economy is barely above water. I think price...
CBOT: Micro Treasury Yields ( CBOT_MINI:2YY1! , CBOT_MINI:5YY1! , CBOT_MINI:10Y1! , CBOT_MINI:30Y1! ) Is the US economy heading towards a “no landing”, as opposed to a “hard landing” or a “soft landing"? There is a heated debate among economists and market strategists. What is a "no landing"? It is a new term drawn up by Wall Street, which describes the...
So, DXY continues its position under the 768 fib line AND the 200 and 100 EMA - PA managed to get above the 50 but will that last Somrthing to possibly note is that, as I have shown previously, DXY does not like Fib circles and 99% of the time, it will be rejected by them, as you can see on 3 previous occasions on this chart alone. And PA is approaching...
I am posting this again as I have seen some people wondering why Bitcoin is continueing to rise despite the Fed ( the DXY Support group) saying that they will continue to raise interest rates On this chart, we can see that 5 of the Rate raises had little Effect on Bitcoin PA and recovery was swift. One of the reasons for this is that Bitcoin is truly GLOBAL...
DXY is looking like it needs a boost, and the FED just may have given it, saying larger Rate hikes on the way PA coming up under 200 MA as well as 768 fib line likely to be resistance MACD just above 0 so has room StochRSI overbought Ordinarily I would say that PA probably range under 200 But now, well, It may push harder today before close for the weekend. FED...
FED's recent report says economic outlook is not bad as we think. Gold is usually gain when economy is not good. So ,I am selling gold before CPI report. My target 1850,1830,1820 the best is 1800(physical level to support)
CME: S&P Technology Select Sector ( CME_MINI:XAK1! ) The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.5% in January and +6.4% year over year, reported the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday. Excluding food and energy, Core CPI increased 0.4% monthly and 5.6% yearly. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected the headline CPI to grow 0.4% monthly and 6.2%...
The upward momentum on the DXY after January’s positive non-farm payroll print on the 3rd of February seems to have subsided for the time being. The DXY managed to test its 50-day MA and touch the green 23.6% Fibo retracement level at 104 but these resistance levels have held their ground. The 23.6 % Fibo also coincides satisfyingly with the neckline of the...
Through January the DXY traded to the downside following the release of several positive key economic data, increasing the market sentiment that the US Federal Reserve would pivot from its current monetary policy stance, to slow down/stop further interest rate hikes. Notable US news events in January -Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) was greater than expected (Actual:...
Retest in 0.69265 at 0.236 Fibonacci Retracement. Possible down trade in AUDUSD due to possible increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserved. still focus in the Federal Reserve report and CPI Report.
This chart uses my Yield/FX indicator to show divergences from the NASDAQ futures (NQ) from the indicator, and thus weakness/strength in the yield/FX calculation compared to the market. Much like the use of a normal RSI/MACD analysis, divergence from the indicators trend to the indice can be used as a reversal indication signal.
AUDUSD a possible down trend due to possible Federal Reserve increase interest rates.
FOMC's Williams speech did not do much, as he was echoing what Jerome Powell already said 2 days ago. Rate hikes to resume, but at slower pace. Williams mentioned that inflation rate in the US should cool off to 3% this year, now at 6.5%. That's 50% lower. Question is, how much more rate hike is required to push inflation down by 50%? Will that be somehow somewhat...
Putting on the same chart the S&P and fed rate the last three market bottoms happened a year and a half after the fed funds rate peaks. (589 days avg.) That would put the next one in September 2024
This week, we thought it will be interesting to review the trade from last week given the reaction post-FOMC, as well as discuss an alternative way to set up this trade. Firstly, let’s review the post-FOMC/employment data reaction. - Nonfarm Payrolls surprised to the upside, as over half a million jobs were added way above the estimates of a sub 200K...
GBPJPY reacted strongly after FED increased the interest rate, making JPY weak as Yen always sensitive with interest change. Look for potential buy after break the SWAP Zone.