This week, we thought it will be interesting to review the trade from last week given the reaction post-FOMC, as well as discuss an alternative way to set up this trade. Firstly, let’s review the post-FOMC/employment data reaction. - Nonfarm Payrolls surprised to the upside, as over half a million jobs were added way above the estimates of a sub 200K...
GBPJPY reacted strongly after FED increased the interest rate, making JPY weak as Yen always sensitive with interest change. Look for potential buy after break the SWAP Zone.
On February 1st, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a widely-expected 25bps rate hike. This was the rallying cry for the current market rally to continue. Is this confidence warranted? An interesting note is that the FOMC meeting minutes and the associated press conference appeared contradictory in nature because there was not a straightforward hawkish or dovish...
The euro is catching its breath on Friday after some sharp swings over the past two days. EUR/USD is trading quietly at the 1.09 line. This week's central bank rate announcements sent the euro on a roller-coaster ride. The Fed's 25-basis point hike pushed the euro higher by 1.16%, while the ECB hike of 50-bp sent the euro down by 0.76%. The end result is that the...
The British pound has posted sharp losses on Thursday and continues to lose ground in the North American session. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2251, down 0.98%. The major central banks remain the focus of the market's attention. The Bank of England raised rates by 50 basis points, just one day after the Federal Reserve's 25-bp hike. This marked a second straight...
BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P Fed meeting on 1-Feb-2023 at 19:00 UTC Looking for 25bp rate hike for potential bullish move. BTC has had a run to almost 24k. But it's approach is quite tight like a triple tap in play. Support levels marked in white for possible re-entry for Long via appropriate entry trigger. Entry trigger could be bullish candle or bullish candlestick...
CBOT: Treasury Yield Spread 10Y-2YY ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! CBOT_MINI:2YY1! ), Micro Dow ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ), Micro S&P ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%. The move marked the eighth consecutive hikes that have began in March 2022. The overnight risk-free rate is...
The chart for XAUUSD could be a bearish trade given that the Federal Reserve increase interest rates to 25bp, this Federal decision could affect the XAUUSD trade favor to USD side, but according in the Federal report by Jerome Powell, Chairman of Federal Reserve, "that is for Congress to raise the debt ceiling so that the United States government can pay all of...
Posting this again while we wait for the US Federal Reserve ( A PRIVATE Group of Representatives of Private Banks) to come out and announce the next rate Rise. I feel it is important to note how BTC has reacted in the past. Mostly well. The major declines in PA are NOT actually from A Direct result of Rises but more the effect on other things. Both LUNA and FTX...
CME_MINI:NQH2023 - PR High: 12121.50 - PR Low: 12096.00 - NZ Spread: 57.0 Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM) - Weekend Gap: N/A - 8/19 Session Gap: -0.04% (open > 13237) - Session Open ATR: 260.07 - Volume: 19K - Open Int: 275K - Trend Grade: Bear - From ATH: -27.9% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 12391 - Mid: 11820 - Short:...
Traders, The market expects 25 basis points tomorrow. What they are unsure of is how it will look in March. While the fed may indicate yet another rate hike in March, the dollar, vix, and treasuries are telling us else wise. Let's take a spin through our lead indicators today as well as Bitcoin. Stew
The New Zealand dollar has edged lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6462, down 0.10%. New Zealand releases the Q4 employment report later today. Unemployment is expected to tick lower to 3.2%, following a 3.3% reading in the third quarter. This would mark the lowest unemployment rate in over four decades. Employment change is...
The noise pollution for the market is extreme this week, from interest rate announcements to non-farm payrolls and manufacturing PMI's. Based off technicals, the dollar is looking rather perky at the moment. The DXY seemed to find support off its 61.8% Fibo retracement level, from the 2022 gains, of 101,841. I suspect a move higher towards the 50-day MA level of...
The economic calendar is wild this week so I thought it would be best to do a deep fundamental dive into the USDZAR . All the attention will be on the Federal reserve tomorrow and whether or when they will pause their rate hikes. We need to look past the hype around the interest rate and the “pivot" narrative. Focus should however be on how the markets will cope...
Those who have been reading our past 2 ideas will know we’ve been harping on and on about expected rate path and policy timelines. Why the recent obsession you ask? Because we think we’re on the cusp of major turning points. So, for the third time, let’s look at the market’s expected policy rate path. With FOMC coming up this week, we are expecting a 25bps...
It is a big week ahead with the Federal Reserve and US jobs, Bank of England and the European Central Bank. My thesis is for a higher US dollar, a sell-off in Gold, hawkish Fed, a hawkish ECB, and firm US wage pressures. AUD/USD is one to watch for a sell-high opportunity in New York trade on Monday/Tuesday perhaps, same with Gold.
Bitcoin Bear PA key moments are listed here - the RED vertical lines are interest rate riaises by US FED. Nov '21 TAPROOT installed on Bitcoin Network, after which PA reverses. Slow "Bear" market takes hold and PA slides down FED has 1st Rate Hike in a very long time in March '22, Bitcon PA actually Rises. 2nd Ratehike by FED on early May News comes out that...
An echo of the great recession of 2008 would look easy on this chart and fits nicely with the percentage distance from the 3-year moving average. I think this downturn will be even greater in magnitude and worse in different ways. QQQ at $187 by mid-summer is what I see likely. The Fed and US Treasury need folks begging to justify their next blunder. The...