Until recently, the USD10 Yield vs. US Fed Fund Rate's spread was always a positive number. This chart tracks episodes when the US Fed Funds Rate was at the same level as now.
CRIMEx FUTURES/OPTIONS VOLUME ALL-TIME HIGH FEBRUARY 25TH! MORE THAN 1.5B$ OF DIGITAL DERIVATIVES DUMPED ONTO THE MARKET! CRIMEx TRADING FLOOR SHUTTING DOWN! TRADERS BEING SENT HOME! U.S. MINT SELLING A RECORD AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL BULLION! RISING METALS WILL ATTRACT TOO MUCH EXITING CAPITAL, IT CANNOT BE ALLOWED! HOWEVER, ALL MARKET SUPPRESSION EVENTUALLY FAILS!
Technical breakout and retest. My expectation for 2020 is a volatile market for both the US indices and for the gold miners. I think gold miners will actually outperform US stocks to the downside here and then will explode higher once we reach full ZIRP and QE5++. The SPX and other US indices could take a major blow in terms of gold which will drag down gold...
Bear Market inflated by the Fed? www.wsj.com www.bankrate.com
Context & Navigating markets during COVID-19 Due to COVID-19 outbreak happening on top of an uptight bond market and weak economic fundamentals, the OANDA:SPX500USD — along with other major indexes — has tanked from its 3396 historical high in a straight line untill it found a yet to confirm or break H1 support on the 2855 area which happens to be the 50%...
With falling US markets and equity, EURUSD are also showing signs of reversal after a long bullish rally. As FED cuts interest rates, it is likely to have a significant impact on the dollar. This is effect is immediately shown in the dark cloud cover formed in the 4 hour chart at the last 2 trading sessions of the previous week, both of which have very high...
#spx #sp500 #fedfundrate - The Federal Reserve lowered the Federal Fund Rate today from 1.5% to 1% in the first rate cut outside of an FOMC meeting since Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008. This came as the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, claimed that the economy is doing fine and unemployment is at a multi-decade low. If everything is so “fine”, then...
LARGEST WEEKLY EURODOLLAR VOLUME IN RECORDED HISTORY! LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS LATE JULY 2007! REPO MARKET ILLIQUIDITY/RISING EURODOLLAR CONTRACT INDICATES AN IMMINENT FINANCIAL CRISIS!
RATE CUTS AND 'NIRP'! DOLLAR MILKSHAKE THEORY RELIED ON RATE HIKES AND QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING! U$D IS NOT THE CLEANEST DIRTY SHIRT IN THE HAMPER!
Many equity charts look similar. Amazing how gains from October.3rd/2019- February 20th/2020 got erased in 6 days. We are now in a downtrend, and we should expect a lower high to be made. I am looking for this swing as long as we remain below the break out zone indicated by the arrow at the 3230 zone. Have some fib targets to watch out for where I will await and...
This is simply an analysis, not an invitation to go short or long, please do your own research As you can see besides the technical analysis indicating a possible fall for SPY, we have also many fundamentals which pushes me to say that there is a decent probability we can see SPY go down to support before either going back up to top channel, or completing the...
Quick update here on the state of the market. The FOMC futures for March 18th are currently pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut, with a 95% chance of a 50 basis point cut. I warned that we would see a strong central bank response, and it appears we are going to get just that. This comes amidst a recent move in Hong Kong to award it's citizens with...
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been forming a long-term parallel channel and has some support from the channel bottom around 24,000. The Dow may fall to that level on Monday due to the spread of coronavirus over the weekend (including a cluster of 11 cases in San Antonio, Texas) before rebounding from 24,000 on faith that the Fed will cut interest rates....
High probability the silver sell off is complete and the bull scenario resumed. Has now likely formed a double bottom pattern.
Gold miners are the classic "safe haven" sector. Not surprisingly, they've moved higher as coronavirus drives pretty much everything else lower. Market Vectors Gold Miner ETF is the go-to instrument for most traders, with deep liquidity and very heavy options volume. (GDX averages about 140,000 contracts a day, more than triple the runner-up, Barrick Gold ,...
Back in early October I posted a commodities chart. On that chart I shared my thesis that Gold's 6-year breakout in May would retest and commodities would follow on the next leg up. I later posted that "unofficial QE would add fuel into inflationary forces". With Gold breaking out of its healthy correction, inflation hitting 9-year highs, the Fed saying they will...
Name something that both parties have in common? Fiscal Irresponsibility.
My intuition tells me it's not. I think the Fed will be able to keep the stock market afloat for another 2-3 months (unless CoronaVirus goes really beserk), and AMD will reach new highs in the $55-$60 range as indicated by my completely arbitrary, diagonal line.