The markets are at a crucial spot and Powell is due for a decision soon... The chance of negative rates is low but definitely not out of the picture and if that happens, TLT will pump and HYG/IWM will dump (yes SPY too). Timing will be hard but the pressure is certainly building and is confirmed on the technical side of things. $TLT tested a crucial level at...
Bonds have reached a very important level. For now this seems like a *logical* place for the *anti-reflation* / deflation trade to end, and for the risk on trade to be back. I am more on the disinflationary (very low inflation) camp, however bonds have risen substantially and it might be time to take some profits before the resume lower. I don't think we will have...
Idea for HYG: - Top of the range, rising wedge. - Short TP1: 77. - PT 67. GLHF - DPT
AMEX:HYG Possible Scenario: SHORT Evidence: Price Action Call options, Strike 86$, 05/28/21 80%POSITION * This is my idea and could be wrong 100%
Bond have fallen a lot and quite fast. The sentiment is really stretched and most expect yields to rise more (bonds to fall lower). In my opinion there is quite a decent chance the bond bull market is over given that we had a massive blow off top in March 2020, but this doesn't mean that I don't see a potential bounce here or even bottom. Bonds hit key support,...
Is high yield debt signalling a top of the SP500? In the past the market flipped when high yield debt reached these prices.
Looked like the massive money printing is working.
After the US Federal stimulus package re-confirmed passed. Several sectors just strengthen up in place; be it crypto or US Dollar index . At anytime, the tides went South. We need to get out!
This will be the zoom out version for better picture.
The fear of many still remain fresh in every sentiment. The 2nd Bear Coming
... for a .70 credit. Notes: The 30 days until expiry weekly isn't very liquid where I want to set up my tent, so going out to the February monthly (59 days until expiry) to collect about twice the monthly dividend in premium instead.
... for a .37/contract credit. Notes: Selling the strike in the monthly that pays a credit > or = to the monthly dividend, looking to emulate monthly dividends without being in the actual stock. The weeklies, unfortunately, aren't as liquid as I would like, so will sell in the nearest monthly down to 30 days until expiry.
We are very close to hit the resistance level 89 by wave (Z) of (WXYXZ) to complete the edge of B. It can take from couple of weeks to couple of months to hit the level. We expect the downtrend to start by summertime (May-June 2021) Afterwards the big-big sale of “junk bonds” will undoubtedly start along with deep correction on all the markets which will last...
Jaw is getting bigger and bigger.
... for a .37/contract credit. Notes: Parking a little bit of idle capital in HYG in the expiry nearest 30 days in the strike that pays at or greater than the monthly dividend. Fine with getting assigned, selling call against if that happens. Will otherwise run through expiry/expiring worthless.
... for a .42/contract credit. Notes: Selling the strike nearest 30 days that pays at or slightly greater than the monthly dividend to park buying power in short duration in lieu of just letting buying power sit idle. I'm fine with taking assignment, selling call against, so will run these to expiry, particularly given the credit received.