Despite the US-China phase one trade deal supporting equities the upside could be minimized if priced in already since as indices have been moving up since the December truce! Geopolitics suggest more strength, however, technicals indicate otherwise! Will corporate earnings trigger a shift from a macro perspective? Well, either that or weaker US inflation...
Usd losing momentum SUpply and demand for gold and oil starting to heat up investors are putting their money in gold to avoid economic issues and inflation with the USD
Happy new year to all. Chart I sent out today... Above is the 10-2 spread vs gold. One thing to be sure of is that inflation expectations are increasing, shown by the bull steepening of the curve. Gold rallying has only a little to do with certain central banks buying more of it. Nor is it due to some kind of risk off sentiment, since equity markets are...
The fed has continued with "QE" Quantitative Easing. They call it "adding to it's balance sheet" It started buying long-term treasury's, debt and mortgage-backed securities to “increase the availability of credit” for home purchases and prop up the economy, according to a Fed statement from 2008. Fast-forward to October 2017: The Fed started gradually selling...
NZD's newfound strength is artificial for the most part. Let's analyze: New Zealand's GDP report showed to be better than expected, but let's put that into perspective. In Q2, their GDP was revised down and you want to convince me that this 0.7% quarter growth is significant. The yearly GDP growth is still on a convincing downtrend. Many Banks still have the RBNZ...
Gold Officially broke out as you all know Silver will outperform Gold but they will both be moving up. As I said bull flag on long term charts. No one else is saying this but interest rates will be 0% at the end of 2020 The FED will be buying even more bonds back at a faster pace than in 2019 Do not believe the 2% Inflation lies, Inflation by the 1980s method...
Inflation is going to rear its head. 5x growth of global money supply is inflating asset prices. Meanwhile, Gold, Bitcoin, and Silver are all primed to break upward in unison, after remarkably similar structures: $GLD $BTC $SLV
A very good time to update the Gold chart after clearing inflation and FOMC yesterday. As widely mentioned in the latest macro update in the institutional room: " Here tracking for a slight uptick in inflation but nothing out of trend before the spotlight is turned onto forward guidance with Fed and 2020 dots. I expect the dots to tick down whilst leaving 2021...
Gold miners versus the price of gold itself is the cheapest it has ever been. The gold mining sector cannot go to zero and it is the closest to zero it has ever been. How often does one get the opportunity to enter a sector at generational Value investors should love this sector. - fundamentally undervalued. basing at all-time lows - Gold achieved 6-year highs...
Inflation expectation is creeping higher in Australia. Currently, Core CPI is at 1.60, CPI Housing Utilities is increasing, the inflation rate is currently 1.7 and up 0.1 from September. With the US CPI coming out today better than expected but less than the previous reading traders have sold the US dollar. The likelihood is that the Fed keeps interest rates as...
TIPS vs. GOVT breaking through a diagonal downtrend line (beginning in April '18). When it comes to Ratio charts, horizontal S/R zones are far more important IMO, but nonetheless this is an interesting development
An update to the medium-term Gold chart after clearing Fed. The strong push up factors remain prevalent for Gold; global recessionary risks are back in play, US-China protectionism returning and geopolitical gulfs widening all whilst equity and credit markets reach extended valuations and to put the cherry on top as if this wasn't enough, CB throwing the kitchen...
Gold broke out of a 6-year base this year, leading the other metals and commodities. 6-year base breakouts don't just end in 1-month surges. We have higher gold targets following this correction. $1711 and $1834 gold targets in the next 3-5 months. To us, this correction is an accumulation opportunity. When silver rallies to $25, silver miners will have a ton of...
We are only 1 or 2 years away from another full-blown global competition for currency devaluation. The next crisis will NOT be like 2008. In 2008 we began the crisis with the US Dollar Index (DXY) at an all-time record low and the crisis caused a flood into the dollar. Where we are now is much more similar to 2000: High dollar, high stock market, quiet...
I don’t think its a coincidence that commodities across the board are looking bullish at exactly the same time as the economy is slowing down and the Fed is quietly conducting QE4. Fed bought twice as many bonds this month than their monthly total during QE3. October rate cut odds are at 90%. I don’t think inflation is going to explode tomorrow but I do think...
The Repo market is proof that something is wrong with the system. It's an unsustainable system. Rates need to stay low and money needs to be printed in order to sustain this bubble - eventually this will create an intolerable amount of inflation. As the market realizes that QE isn't temporary, that it is permanent until inflation is out of control, then...
DXY seems a little expensive vs Oil and Inflation Expectations but not sure the spread is wide enough to justify a trade. Not much this time
Trump says there hasn't been any inflation...This chart is solid proof that there actually has been. Since January 1st 2019 there has been 1.82% inflation, and over the last month we have seen .36% of that. That huge in 1 month!