The current week is full of informational events around the oil market. Which continues to play into the hands of sellers. Yesterday, for example, Morgan Stanley analysts warned that if OPEC + participants at their next meeting on December 5 do not announce a higher reduction in production (current volumes of 1.2 million barrels), then Brent quotes will drop to $...
In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk mainly about #RBA and why #Aussie in somewhat bid and I also touch #eurodollar. #AUDUSD, despite yesterday's slide and regardless of trade war narratives, was pushed higher earlier in the session on the back of RBA's hold. The pair was supported as the bank kept the inflation outlook unchanged and reiterated that...
Just look at the chart, everything is described.
ISM Manufacturing PMI leads US Core inflation YoY 20 months
Gold typically leads commodities by a few months and so given the surges and breakouts in gold, silver, and platinum, I think the CRB index is next. Looking at the chart, its clear this is a chart that has been gradually shifting in trends. In my opinion, most of the heavy selling is over. CRB index has been forming a sexy looking base and looks like it could...
With the Fed's quarter-percent rate cut, gold should move upward for the near future. The move likely won't last, because further rate cuts are not expected this year, but it should be good for a short-to-medium-term trade. To sustain its upward move, gold needs to get above the high-volume support node at $68. I will buy a bar close above this level. I've also...
XAU Gold Miners - Short Term Peak @ Late October Fed Mtg
Copper is interestingly a great gauge of economic health coming from Asia, and also a relevant view on global growth / inflationary expectations. We've been battling two head and shoulder formations since the GFC. First, the very large commodity bubble formed a big head and shoulders that peaked roughly around 2012, a time where China had maxed out its credit...
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The fact that there was no fundamental force majeure yesterday led to the “calm” Wednesday. In fact, the last statistics outcome prepared in line with forecasts as well as UK inflation rate. After crossing the new local Minimum yesterday, the pound “changed the situation” in the afternoon. So, we recommend looking for points for its buying. Traditionally we...
Inflation expectations and Oil are rising once again but DXY is not following and seems stronger than this relationship implies
Donald Trump wants to devaluate the US dollar. From the South China Morning Post: "The euro – which has dropped nearly 10 per cent against the dollar since early 2018 – is 22 per cent undervalued versus the greenback, according to a purchasing power parity measure of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. The dollar itself is considered too...
Inflation expectations and oil prices declined significantly. DXY was showing the path as predicted. There is no clear signal from this relationship now
DXY and inflation expectations are diverging once again, just like early 2017 and mid-2018. Divergence is not extreme yet but I fear we might be walking into another trap. DXY is once again showing the path imho, so oil and inflation expectations are once to high and should come down unless dollar reverses quickly.
This is a basic chart for educational purposes. The arrows drawn are not predictions, merely possibilities. There are two scenarios I see potentially playing out: 1. Deflationary crash. I don't think this is the most likely scenario. The Federal Reserve would have to continue with monetary tightening by allowing interest rates to rise and they'd have to be very...
Here is a look at a prediction I am making. I dont usually do this but since its not really a price prediction I am gonna throw this out there. The golden cross worked well with BTC and many other Alts so I am keeping an eye on this. We have already seen a 25%+ increase over the past few days. Maybe this was in anticipation of the future golden cross? Maybe not....