Consumer Price Index Year over Year (CPI YOY) vs 2 Year Yield (2YY) vs Fed Funds. To even begin to arrest inflation, the Fed has to get Fed Funds above the 2YY. To break the back of inflation, the Fed must get Fed Funds above CPI YOY. Does the most recent drop in CPI YOY mean that peak inflation is already in? People forget that when inflation runs hot, so...
When the stock market takes a nosedive, people tend to flock to safe investment options such as gold and silver. As a result, these precious metals tend to see an increase in demand during economic downturn, as well as following them. This makes sense because there are many advantages that come from investing in gold and silver during turbulent times. They’re...
Hi, just a short forecast for the upcoming US CPI. I'm expecting the August 2022 US CPI will be around 7.9% to 8.1% due to lower gas prices and EU-Iran nuclear deal. This will at least gives relief to XXXUSD pairs and hope that the FED will implement 50 basis points this September 2022 FOMC instead of 75 basis points.
Commodities are basic good used in commerce of primary origin, produced on a large scale and used as raw materials by various economic agents. Examples are soy, corn, cotton, meat, oil, natural gas, wood and water. They are classified, according to their origin, into agricultural, livestock, mineral and environmental. Its main function is the supply of raw...
This here is my bias on how Gold will reach its long term target of 2140. As the month is about to end with a very bearish candle, I am expecting a little more downside on Gold at the start of next month, before we see buying momentum resume. Wave IV should end its wave around 1727-1734, before we see the next leg to the downside. Gold should finish Wave V...
Unfortunately, stock markets are where they are, and we cannot force them to move in a particular direction. We see a neutral status at the end of the summer, but this volatility may come back in September. We may see some interesting price action already this week when US will release its important jobs data. Fed watches this data closely, but what’s important is...
Nice signal in energy names. Macro and fiscal policy are sure making the Fed's life hard. The trend in commodities, energy, value vs growth remains bullish, same as the trend in the Dollar vs the Euro. The recent drop in inflation and oil created a very low risk buy opportunity in commodities in general. I've rotated away from my growth focused portfolio in the...
The euro-dollar exchange rate captures the value of the euro in terms of U.S. dollars. It’s one of the most widely tracked and significant global currency indicators, given that Europe is a major economic region with a strong currency, and many international financial transactions are denominated in euros. Moreover, the euro has been under pressure in recent...
M2 is the money in circulation issued by the government. (fred.stlouisfed.org) M2REAL is the real value of M2 deflated by the CPIAUCSL (Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers). (fred.stlouisfed.org) (fred.stlouisfed.org) M2REAL is in an infinite uptrend, with a downward correction now. The correlation with SPX is positive as both are falling. A change in...
We are in for a rollercoaster, rampant inflation, quantitative tightening, interest rate hikes, supply chains up-rooted, aggregate demand killed by mortgage rates/energy costs/cost of living crisis (global recession inbound).. don't see how this doesn't go down to 3000 / possibly Covid lows. Buys: Uraniam, LNG, Solar/Wind, Fertiliser/Potash, Litigation firm
Gold H4 We sold off nicely here and looks to have broken support, but a quick flick to the D1 timeframe shows a large wick rejection, and whilst we have set new lows on the H4, this isn't the case for the D1. So we simply wait for something a little more clear which compliments both timeframes, this would give us more certainty and confidence in taking our...
Equity Indexes: CME Micro S&P 500 ( CME_MINI:MES1! ), Micro Russell 2000 ( CME_MINI:M2K1! ) On August 26th, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell declared to forcefully fight the worst inflation in 40 years. He warned that the Fed would continue raising interest rates, even if it would cause "some pain" to the U.S. economy. In an eight-minute speech at the Jackson Hole...
USD JPY Has Reached 4h Supply and constantly left behind liquidity 137.5 is Strong Supply and I Expect Price to react on this zone , Behind on chart has a lot of demand but our target will be around 134 if price make any down move we anticipate 132 for full target , lets enjoy new week good week all
We have so many confluences on this set up : 1) We can see a rejection of the higher band in the descending channel. 2) Another rejection of the 618 from the past impulsion. 3) Friday the Jackson Hole summit of the Fed provides us negative news fundamentally, Hikes IR -> investors will change their positions from equities to Bonds or most simply Banks. And even...
With inflation's end nowhere near in sight, the Federal Reserve this week announced more "tough times" ahead - indicating that they're likely to do more interest hikes for the rest of 2022. Inflation rates in the US right now sits around %8-10 - but since CPI reports exclude food and energy prices by design, the "real" inflation rate is likely a lot higher. Most...
As demonstrated on the charts, USDCAD has formed a top (Wave 4) at 1.32230. I am now expecting the next sell off towards 1.24000 as part of Wave 5. This sell off is expected to take place in 3 sub-waves. DXY has also topped and looking to sell off, which positively correlates with this analysis. However, we did see a strong upside movement on USDCAD on Friday so...
The market is currently on route to levels lower in the following days to come. This statement will be justified in the paragraphs that follow. Flag break: The market was trending in a bearish flag formation starting on the 18th of June and has recently broken out on the 19th of August. The breakout target levels for this flag formation puts the total market...
As this chart shows since the onset of the Covid- Era, the inflation rate to gold price ratio has increased over 60x in the intervening 30 month. Pricipally this is due to the inflation rate escalating while spot gold has been stable or decreased. This would seem to suggest that gold is undervalued and may be overdue for the price adjustment of a bull run....