As demonstrated on the charts, USDCAD has formed a top (Wave 4) at 1.32230. I am now expecting the next sell off towards 1.24000 as part of Wave 5. This sell off is expected to take place in 3 sub-waves. DXY has also topped and looking to sell off, which positively correlates with this analysis. However, we did see a strong upside movement on USDCAD on Friday so...
The market is currently on route to levels lower in the following days to come. This statement will be justified in the paragraphs that follow. Flag break: The market was trending in a bearish flag formation starting on the 18th of June and has recently broken out on the 19th of August. The breakout target levels for this flag formation puts the total market...
As this chart shows since the onset of the Covid- Era, the inflation rate to gold price ratio has increased over 60x in the intervening 30 month. Pricipally this is due to the inflation rate escalating while spot gold has been stable or decreased. This would seem to suggest that gold is undervalued and may be overdue for the price adjustment of a bull run....
For longest time rates were concerned with oil prices and it looks like oil has peaked. But still, rates rise in the face of QT, a housing recession and falling oil prices? Rates must be chasing Natural Gas, the second larges input to energy inflation. Will Nat gas breakout or is this the end of the road?
This is a SPY weekly chart after the Friday FED speech signaling continued hawkishness till inflation drops to 2%. Spy has a history of making bulltraps (higher highs on this weekly chart) before plunging as seen in my several boxes. It was rejected by the black downtrend line from the 476.44 ATH (see black falling wedge) & also rejected by the horizontal neckline...
1. Quantitative tightening and inflation continue in the first months. Bitcoin visits old ATH, , then increasingly stabilize as inflation comes more or less under control in the coming months. 2. Energy prices will stabilize and fall: OPEC has announced to increase oil production capacity from june, this will significantly alleviate the global situation and to...
Real interest rates will probably start to fall soon because of stagflation. Real interest rates can be measured by subtracting inflation expectations FRED:T10YIE from US treasury yields FRED:DGS10 . Treasury yields will likely fall along with unemployment as measured by initial claims FRED:ICSA . Initials claims has started to slowly rise and when it...
So I've been tracking this for a long time - already worrying was the fact that we crossed that all-time trendline - now we just retested it. Everybody is euphoric about Inflation possibly having peaked, I'm still concerned this is just a retest.
Is Inflation in your Cup! This idea is following my previous post about how to Straddle an Ascending Triangle. After that Straddle plays out a Cup and Handle could form. The current admin forgot they need to turn off the spigot to stop inflation. Want a strong economy? employment. Employment burns fuel. Firms are trying to get employees back in offices....
EUR/USD 🔽 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 USD/CHF 🔼 USD/JPY 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔽 A surge in dollar values throughout the first half of the day was followed by a decline against most of the dollar's key competitors. This was caused by unfavorable US statistics, such as the US Services S&P Global PMI dropping to 44.1. Manufacturing contracted at a slower pace than expected...
I'm surprised that no one on Trading View posted this chart today. The NDTH is a chart of the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks that are above their 200-day moving average. It dropped to 6.86 today. This means about 94% of Nasdaq 100 stocks were below their 200-day moving average. The last time this level was reached was in March 2020 right at the bottom of the...
Ignore all the other charts right now. They are based on DOLLARS. The dollar is permanently unstable and your imperialist overlords are here to take away your spending power. We're due to see bearish action similar to April 5th (pink dot). The question is, will we see a lower high in relative yields, or will we set a higher low and possibly become uninverted, and...
We should all be aware that USA 10yr treasuries pumping up is bad news for all risk assets. And mix that with DXY pumping and we get bear markets like most of 2022. But I remain steadfast that the W4 isn't completed yet, the 382 is around 2.4% & ema 100 is around 2.24% on 3D so this is likely the B wave of the ABC down of the minor 4th and should finish in...
The blue line area shows the historic and current FED's Fund Rate. Looking back in the past it appears the US10Y (yellow line) is predictive of FED's fund rate upper target (orange arrows). The US3M (turquoise line) seems to be a good indicator to get a feeling for the FED's fund rate short-term up or downward trend. In the FOMC Summary of Economic Projections...
EUR/USD 🔽 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI ▶️ There is a month between now and the next US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the investors are undecided about how high it would be. Given the falling gas prices, strong labor market, and the looming recession, the US central bank could favor a 50 bps rate hike. On the other hand, the latest...
I had this confusing idea and I will show it to you with this confusing chart. 1. First we define the blue vertical lines. These are the drawn on the date of the peak of yield. ( Even though yields drop, dollar continues to grow. Like a delayed reaction. Unsurprisingly, yields lead DXY growth. ) 2. Then we draw fib retracements, with 1 being the DXY value at...
As you can see Crude Oil as completed it's impulsive correction and has began heading towards breaking out of the patterns drawn which have been accumulating since June. It has also found itself above a resistance level from Oct 21' which looks to be holding like support. It's also just below it's daily 100 EMA which if tackled would help this case. Ultimately...
through the technical analysis we can recognize that price needs to complete the bullish bat harmonic pattern. so it will reach to bottom of its channel. then can set buy orders, according to your strategy.