GPBUSD is risking to enter into a downtrend on quarterly basis, with price falling out of flat lower 1st standard deviation from quarterly (66 day) mean at 1.5390
As long as price trades below the level, risk of further downmove is very high - it can trigger volatility expansion
(marked by 3.2 standard deviations from quarterly mean)
The risk is only cancelled...
During the recent selloff, Boeing on long term basis failed the 5-year uptrend by falling below 1st upper standard deviation from 5-year (260-week) mean @ 137, however held the test of 10-year uptrend by bouncing up from 1st upper standard deviation from 10-year (520-week) mean @ 121.
On short term basis, the price managed to hold 1-year ascending channel...
During the recent selloff, Apple on long term basis failed the 5-year uptrend by falling below 1st upper standard deviation from 5-year (260-week) mean @ 109, however held the test of 10-year uptrend by bouncing up from 1st upper standard deviation from 10-year (520-week) mean @ 92.
On short term basis, the price managed to hold 1-year ascending channel (marked...
The S&P500 is at an important point in time. This excellent chart from @YaKa shows how the market is now at a meaningful long-term inflection point after a 7.5 year run. Normally this would be convincing, but this market cycle is different and thus the last run cannot be used for precise comparison. This market is not expensive enough at a point in the economic...
The Euro looks bearish here along with oil. It has been in a macro downtrend or downward parallel channel since 7/08' which only accelerated the downtrend in 9/14' with the accompanying rising dollar and falling oil prices which the rising dollar is inverse with most currencies and oil. Right now.......the Euro is consolidating along w/ Oil & USD. When USD starts...
Oil looks bearish here on a macro timeframe. It broke down through the upward macro sloping trendline around Aug. and then thru the 50 dma in Sept. and has been in a downtrend ever since then. The fast decline and bear mkt. caught many by surprise. Oil is currently showing a macro bear flag pttn. w/ tgts. being in a range of 27-16 lvls. depending on where you draw...
Are the last few month's decrease in retail sales "transitory" as the FED puts it or should the market be pricing in risk.
The last time retail sales started falling like this, the market had already priced in risk for 1 year.
QE and NZIRP do strange things!
So which one will correct?
QE and NZIRP have created such a bubble since 2013 and has completely diverged from macro fundamentals.
Based on history, which always returns back to mean?
But it's different this time, until it's not.
Looks bearish on a long-term timeframe.......looks like a macro bear flag pttn. w/ a tgt. of around 80 for the extn. of the move......of course if it b/o of the upper trendline around 125-126 to the upside then the pttn. is not valid.....if it trend down to the lower end of the range & then b/o to the downside of the pttn. around 110 then it could go to the tgt....
With interest rates around the globe slowly entering negative territory, gold become a rewarding asset yielding zero... Is it the end of the cyclical bear market and the start of a new bull? I am definitely opening some long with the hope of pyramiding later this year. For the time being, a nice speculative long position can be entered on a retest of the neck...
Just an interesting study using arcs and Fib retracements. Using BRK for an overall proxy for our markets to gain insights as to if we may be nearing a generational top.
This chart suggests to me that we may be closer to some sort of top than we are to the beginning of a new secular bull market as some have suggested.
With this very pronounced strengthening of the dollar, none of the commodities are immune to that, from wheat to palladium.
One of the main standard to look for is how gold is reacting, and it is going through some pretty tough times.
The question is, what about Bitcoin?
==> Does the money go back into the box and leave speculative investments like Bitcoin is?
Very interesting dynamics at play in the dollar. Keep an eye on the price action here. Price is currently at point A where there is a confluence of resistance levels.
Price rebounded from the blue channel a few weeks ago but there is no follow through yet. If you have a bearish bias the next drop could go as low as point B where we have a confluence of support...
Based on measured move objectives there are a confluence of potential resistance areas to note just above where price currently resides. Above ~11280 with CONVICTION and ~12500 is the final target.
Looks possibly bullish here as this could be an Inverse HnS pttn. going on right now & if it b/o of around the 189.50 levels then an extension of the move would bring it to tgt.#1=196-197 zone......as always watch volume for confirmation
Looks bearish here as it could be forming major macro bear flag/pennant pattern and if it breaks 121-122 zone w/ volume then it could test 95-98 zone for the extension of the move & this could happen in the next few months.....it looks like the major line or zone of support is around the 90 level which would be around 900 or so actual Gold price.....this area is...
Big Picture:
US markets are strong, so I like long ideas. Despite, this stock looks weak I think if market break up failure scenario will come into play money will rotate from stocks that are on highs to underperforming stocks. And if market will continue showing strength momentum will cautch up this stock as well.
This technology company grew up from $20 since...
US markets (Dia, Spy) are trying to push to new highs. Money rotates to safe heaven, high dividend, large cap stocks (www.cnbc.com).
Cisco is component of both indexes DowJones and S&P. It built nice inverse Head and Shoulders pattern with neckline @ $23.60ish area. And we have series of three higher lows: first is bottom @ $20.22 then right shoulder with...
