Putting this on a touch early ... . High implied volatility rank/high implied volatility in advance of earnings. I'm looking for a volatility crush after earnings announcement and, of course, bullish or sideways movement ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 74% Max Profit: $48/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $1402 (assuming the stock goes to 0, and you...
Adding to my core exchange traded fund fly positions here with this high implied volatility rank underlying. (I already have some XLU on, so just adding a "smidgeon" here). The implied volatilty in this isn't great, but then it's almost never "great" ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 46% Max Profit: $210/contract Max Loss: $190/contract Break Evens:...
As a general rule, I don't like to hold shares in many underlyings, largely because it isn't that capital efficient as compared to making a similar play using options. With NUGT, however, I might make an exception, but, as always, like to compare and contrast. Buying Shares Advantages: 1. If I want to, I can go smaller and dollar cost average into a long...
Using the Bollinger bands as a guide, I'm looking to reload a short volatility play should I be able to get a fill for the right price ... . Here, I'm looking for the basic 1/3rd the width of the spread for a fill price (i.e., 1/3rd of 3 = 1 or $100). I'm setting it up as a GTC order that will expire some time next week. I'll then have another look at the...
With VIX still "up there," I'm putting on a bit more premium selling setups in broad market instruments. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 61% Max Profit: $104/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $201 Break Evens: 105.01/121.99 Notes: I'll look to manage this at 50% max profit. I would also note that this is doubling as a bit of delta hedge for an IWM...
I slapped this one on rather hastily on Friday with the FBI "reopening-Clinton-email-investigation" volatility pop we had on Friday. Unfortunately, I didn't get what I usually look for in these setups -- a credit of at least 1/3rd the width of the wings (I got it filled for .89 ($89) per contract), but could have done slightly better if I'd not been in such a...
AMGN has deviated outside the inner channel into extreme ends of what would be considered to be the sides of bell curve. Short but be cautious. 1st PT around 165 if break then 2nd PT around 144.
With a 52-week implied volatility rank of 100 and an implied volatility of 35, EWW -- the Mexican ETF, beckons for premium selling ... . Here, the iron condor brackets the ZigZag/Donchian channel indicated support/resistance at 48.22 and 54.25 nicely, with break evens for the setup above and below those marks. Here are the metrics for the setup: Probability of...
Okay, so there's other "big pharma" that I like wayyy better than Valeant (e.g., BMY, GILD). The problem is that BMY and GILD are more expensive and don't have the implied volatility that VRX has (for obvious reasons: they don't have as many "warts" as VRX). Nevertheless, I'm watching VRX here because its implied volatility is so high (>100%), which makes...
While I grind away on various covered call positions (I only have one covered call with an October short call on; the rest are in November or December), I'm looking ahead to some decent earnings for premium selling. Generally, I'm looking for underlyings whose implied volatility is above the 70th percentile for the past 52 weeks and that have background implied...
My timing could have been somewhat better on this at the sub-12 dip, but better late than never ... . Metrics: Bought 100 Shares at 13.25 Sold Oct 21st 14 call Whole Enchilada: 12.30 db Max Profit: $170 (if called away at 14) ROC: 13.8% Notes: I promised myself after closing out my XME short put that I wouldn't be dipping into any more miners ... . Just...
Mostly hand-sitting here, but figured I'd take advantage of the increased volatility in the petro sector by selling a bit of premium in XOP, since its IV has popped here. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 52% Max Profit: 2.46 ($256)/contract Max Loss: 2.54 ($254)/contract Break Evens: 37.46/32.54 Notes: I'll look to take this off at 25% max profit ... .
It was either this little fella or X ... . Bought 100 Shares at 4.60 Sold the Oct 21st 5 call Filled for a 4.29 debit Max Profit: $71 (if called away at 5) ROC: 16.6%
BROAD MARKET INSTRUMENT PREMIUM SELLING Post-Brexit vote in late June, when VIX spiked to >25 (signalling a premium selling opportunity in broad market instruments like SPY/SPX and RUT/IWM in the July expiry), there has been but one >15 spike to >20 in mid-September that allowed for some premium selling in the October monthlies, which have since come off in...
I haven't done many of these in the past, but I'm beginning to warm up to them, particular with instruments that wouldn't ordinarily yield jack diddly squat with a traditional iron condor setup. Here's how this iron fly compares to an iron condor with similar break evens (it would be a Nov 18th 43/46/48/51):* Probability of Profit: Fly: 52% Condor: 52% Max...
Taking advantage of this "little" dip here to initiate a covered call in this little, high implied volatility bugger (at some point, I'll make the move to "quality" ... ). Metrics: Bought Shares at 4.73 Sold Oct 21st 5 call Whole Package: 4.40 Max Profit: $60 ROC: 13.6%
Sometimes life just plain ass gets in the way of your trading ... . Starting October 1st, my "number's up" for jury duty for the entire month of October. I may be called to serve any time during this period, sit for a lengthy period of time in a room, and then be excused because the parties have reached a last minute agreement or I may have to sit through an...
Here, I'm looking to sell a touch of premium in an underlying that has both high implied volatility rank (99.6%) and high background implied volatility (99.2%). Metrics: Probability of Profit: 70% Max Profit: $85/contract Buying Power Effect: Varies by Broker.* Break Even: 10.15 Notes: I'll shoot to take this off at 50% max profit. However, I could also see...