Technical Analysis The price is back to test the main dynamic support on daily TF, or the EMA200 periods that passes about 0.68. A few millimeters higher there is another key support, the static one identified by 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement: a price rebound would make a bullish scenario for investors. Macroeconomic Analysis This scenario is also...
The price The price is back above the EMA200 on daily time frame after 9 months of downtrend. In fact, since the index has scored new absolute highs above 33000 points, the price has started to fall until the support around 24500 points and from here it has restarted. Technical analysis Technically the price is now above the new dynamic support (identified...
Very short term In line with the other world indices, this upward trend driven by the resumption of American prices will tend to continue. The level to which it will aim in the very short term is the dynamic resistance identified by the weekly EMA200 at an altitude of 20450 points: from here it will be understood whether it will have the strength to continue...
New channel The price has once again reached a key level on a weekly time frame: at the price of 1,127 a static support has formed, which tends to bounce the price and keeping it within this channel, with resistance at 1,146. Very short, short and medium term The trend remains bearish in the short term, while in the medium term it continues to be strongly...
Macroeconomic side The price in the last sessions is continuing to maintain this lateral / bullish trend without giving too many signs of inversion, supported by a recovering dollar. This week will be essential to understand the short-term trend that will follow both the dollar and the yen: in fact, tomorrow the Fed chairman will make a conference, from which...
All long-looking indicators point to silver being undervalued vs gold. Top chart shows silver candlesticks vs gold red line as percentage returns since 1998. Middle indicator is the Trader's Dynamic Index (TDI) which holds a combination of moving average, volatility and momentum trends. Bottom indicator is the infamous Gold:Silver ratio. Silver is sitting on top...
Copper / Gold ratio pointing to lower 10 year Treasury yields around 2.40%. US yields seem to high on many measures but improving CESI and too much safety bid lately can push yields even higher before the real downturn begins.
Comparing US financials with the EU financials. Have DBK on the rader for a long position.
What can be said about gold and precious metals? Gold has always started out as sound money, followed by monetary expansion, devaluation, and eventual collapse. Take the Roman Empire for example, money started as solid gold coins which eventually expanded with a mixture of base metal, than became worthless. Remember when a quarter was silver, penny was copper,...
The price has invalidated the uptrend in the very short term, going to break down the level placed at 1.317, that was a static support that should have rebounded the price and continue the long trend. After Powell’s words, investors continued to sell the US dollar, making it weaken against all the majors. The Fed has been clear: at this moment it is difficult to...
Business cycle points to lower long term government bond yields. US 10 year yields seem to be the most at risk. LONG LT BONDS & Bond proxies
Business cycle has turned down again as depicted by steel prices and long term treasury yields. Last time, it was Chinese money printing that kick started the cycle again. This time Chinese are still slow to inject meaningful liquidity to the system. Once they get going, it takes 9-12 months for the economy to feel the real impetus. Hence, business cycle is likely...
The trend is bearish in the short and medium term, while in the very short it remains lateral. With the last conference of the ECB governor, the investors have been surprised by a sudden change of vision by Draghi, who said that as early as the first quarter of 2019 could start to issue money at 0 interest rate in favor of the banking system since the European...
Indexes entered the bullflag pattern. At the open we should see a clear signal what will happen. As of writing this post, the US10Y is falling and diverging a from stocks a little.
Looking at ES1! and all the PPT interventions can make one wonder how to invest in a sick market such as this one. It is hard indeed, better stay put. The night has brought us a slump in equities but at the open the magic buyer appeared and bought... EVERYTHING carrying the market towards green numbers. Meanwhile, rates seperated from equities, and judging by who...
Despite continuing equity market weakness today, TLT had a reversal on it's daily candle (not shown). Looking at the resistance line shows that it was violated, but only briefly before racing back below, indicating a reversal of direction. Should easily come back down to around $119 and potentially $116 as a more aggressive target. Could even indicate a...
Top black line is the major resistance line. If yields break this, the US is majorly fucked and signals an end to "cheap money" at a time with debts and unfunded liabilities at all time highs. Yellow line is the support line of the 37+ year channel going back to the early 1980s. Red line is the more recent resistance line which began in June 2007 at the eve of...