previous discussed tlt going to $182 from the area we've just hit change of plans. i think we go to $157 from here to put in this last sub-wave 5 into wave (1) before the retracement into wave (2) on the higher degree ($141 area). once that wave (2) is in, i whole heartedly expect a seriously impulsive move to the $180 area which should shake up the markets...
Fib retracement analysis TLT bounced off 0.5 and broke 0.382. Today, it is hitting the 0.382 fib resistance. Expecting it to come back down to 0.236
TLT has just touched on the ma50 line @145.71 which is also the top on June 18. With gold out of favour and USD going up, the smart money is pouring into the treasury bond. this is a good time to collect some bond for the next 1-2 years. Interest rate should stay low for the mean time and equities should be hot for the coming year.
Idea for US10Y: Just a reminder where we are: Now: GLHF - DPT
Idea for Currencies/Macro: - Contrary to popular belief, since 2008, the dollar RISES with Fed Balance Sheet expansion. - There is currently a large divergence which I speculate to close with the dollar rising. Either the Fed Balance Sheet can be reduced, or the dollar will rise... Obviously the balance sheet will not be reduced for a long time, if ever. Why is...
Idea for 10Y Treasury Bond Yields: I speculate that yields cannot and will not rise significantly until the equity bubble pops. I think that it will start a wave reaching 0.7 this month. Why is that? - There is almost $300 trillion in private sector debt globally. - Companies used margin debt for share buybacks to boost EPS, creating the illusion of economic...
We have an interesting situation, at least for the following 6 weeks...After the jobs report, the market is repricing the timing of tapering and eventual rate hikes it would seem. Financials had underperformed for some time, and $QQQ and $SPY moved higher thanks to growth names regaining strength, while bond yields were falling and a big unwind of losing yield...
DXY is due for a pullback in my opinion, such as the March 20 pump n dump scenario. This could be PT.2 of that. Godspeed.
With the slower/stalled reopening, money isn’t spreading out across industries and the globe as quickly as the FED planned last year. This will cause high inflation readings for longer, bond yields to rise and TLT to fall. Fear of the inflation report on the 11th seems to be playing out.
(Observation at this point only)
Bonds all across the world, across all different spectrums (from gov bonds to junk bonds) have been rising (their yields falling). This is a signal that there are deflationary pressures and that people are searching for yield in an environment with few opportunities. There are other reasons too, but overall this isn't the best signal. Clearly big corporations and...
i don't know what the story is going to be this time, but the charts are all starting to point to a deep market correction which starts in the next couple of days and lasts a couple of months. don't want to be that guy who's all like "da markets are going to crash", but be careful peoples.
... for a 142.60 credit/contract. Comments: Hit my order to take this off at or near max today. (The max would be 143.00, so the order I stuck out thereI took it off .40 short of that). An über long-running covered call setup with the last acquisition of shares around $110/share. (See Post Below). Unfortunately, I didn't keep good track of short call premium...
Idea for TLT: - Price is in quite an elegant ML Channel (upperbound). - Rising Volume and Volatility. - Over key MAs (holding trend). Bonds too, only go up in time, and can be interchanged with equities when there is a bear market in stocks. Smart money already piling in (hedge or predicting a stock bear market). We can play the bonds game soon. GLHF - DPT
Using the same fractal analysis method I used to forecast the BTC dump & dead-cat bounce, I began watching US Treasuries as TLT was set to break out of a descending wedge. Now that it is has, I'm publishing the idea for others to weigh in on. If the pattern plays out we could see new all time highs; which suggests we could be entering another period of recession...
TLT 's pattern of higher highs and higher lows seems very obvious. But as a wise man said, "if it's obvious, it's obviously wrong." So will we see another trap/shake-out occur before it keeps going? Or will this be where TLT pulls back further while the market resumes bullishness. What do you think?
COVID, debt ceiling, drought, $DXY - A few of many things causing this TLT rise. Planning the government response and market effect.