TLT continues to Wedge out into the Break Down. Althought the Yield Curve appears to be heading into an inversion into 2022, the Long End of the Curve remains in peril... Countdown to Depression is ticking into Q2-Q3 2022. Fed language and statements are beginning to shift into 2022 indicating they are off balance NOW. Volaility will increase well ahead of...
Expecting a pivotal day around October 15th, sending TLT lower and rates higher. Is that Taper coming ? China selling ? Who knows and who cares ?
I'm concerned of broad risk off possibilities between now and EOY, as potential tax increases might impact the equity markets, going into effect from 2022 onwards...I was already concerned due to long term technical charts suggesting this year we would likely get the end of the bullish trend we had in equities since the 2009 bottom. This week's turn of events has...
10Yr Yields declined as international Capital Flows began demanding dollars out of the fear as to what is occurring outside the USSA. This implies, as well, a robust demand for perceived "Safety" - the very last thing it actually is. Europe, as we have indicated for months now, remains a basket case. For as bad as it is here, it's worse there. However, this is...
Just a quick market analysis of what I call a classic fat pitch where you have a wide divergence from fair value. All that is needed is a catalyst to cause a flight to safety. Its not a matter of predicting anything. It is for the purpose of managing risk. Lets see how it turns out.
We enjoy cock sure Bond Bag Holders, there answer to everything is BUY. It's wrong as you all will discover. We call it - "The Everything Must Go Sale" Don't worry kiddos, it's temporary Chasing it is a mistake. xoxo - Hunter Killer
TLT is beginning it's terminal phase for the next decline. We Sold to Open TLT this morning, taking our First Position at our Target, with further Sells to 150s Set. Out dated Maturities, we have been suggesting for the past month are due for a large correction in Yields. Day to day noise is just that... Noise. Bond HODLers are convinced they have it figured...
An updated review on TLT - it has been going sideways for the last 2 months and where is it going ? My forecast is - downside has a higher probability. Wave 1 took about 224 days down and the retracement up to 50% took 124 days. This seems like the perfect setup for a short. Michael Burry also predicted the crash of TLT. lets see how this pans out.
TLT is rolling over. Steve Van Metre Fanbois FANBOIS being led to slaughter. Watch the DX. FX accident ahead.
Based on the updated chart formations, I expect the US10y to fall out of this rising channel with a floor of around 1.0, then rapidly rise to at least 1.95. This should begin to play out over the next 1-2weeks. The theory becomes invalid if yields continue to rise in the channel to above 1.36.
Rates of Change for Yields will face increasing Competition in the coming weeks. We anticipate further to quickly be met with YCC. Yields have been mixed at lows, attempting to Hang their Man. Central Banks receive their orders on High. Governments can no longer borrow to fund their annual spending. Digital "Currency" proposals from the WEF via Lagarde at...
Long TLT shares with 2% and 41 deg SL This is very important diamond:
A similar pattern to 2020 is happening, but it appears elongated. I used colored arrows to divide this chart into segments. The blue arrows represent the yields falling to a base. The yellow arrows are the rates rising phase. The red arrows are the yields dropping in a unique curved pattern. It seems to break that curved pattern and start an upward channel. Last...
Fed's Kaplan noted that they are watching Delta variant, and says he may need to adjust view regarding tapering. This is very important for speculators who were recently betting on the USD as this can limit the USD strenght if it proves correct. In such situation traders may turn back to gold where price recovered back to $1800 and even erased all of the...
We have a strong indication that BlueWave is going to give a Red Dot Sell signal soon, and it can be confirmed with the Stochastic RSI. We also know that Micheal Burry from the big short movie is shorting TLT. Adding to that SPY is close to its peak. So be careful.
Since 2002 when GSCO's Timothy Bitsberger's began his reign as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury. Fiscal Fundings began to move down the curve to under 30 Months and accumulate a large concentration within this timeframe. It placed the burden of Government Finance up on the Short End of the Yield Curve near the region of control for the Federal Reserve and...
TLT Gap Fill was the Fill. 150 Put entry completed on GF. November 150s now solidly in profit for this trade, B/E is stop as VX enters and true range appears at 2:45PM EST. This is an aggressive SELL on TLT for us. We believe TLT ends up being Sold Hard. ZN/ZB tend to lead these declines. The Setups in both ZN & ZB are complete. We hold large positions in...
𝗗𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $DXY Daily. Large cup and handle pattern that targets ~97 if breaks out. Golden cross recently as well $UUP $EURUSD $USDJPY $EEM $GLD $BTC $TNX $TLT $SPY $QQQ #ElliottWave #Trading #Currencies 💱