with higher inflation and possible shrinking forward guidance, are corporate junk grade bonds less desirable now? maybe the market doesnt top out or pull back, but cpi over 5% while junk bonds yield mid 4% starts to sound less attractive for the risk, doesnt it?
See chart - C&H and Symmetrical triangle. Looking for Wave E down into a breakout move within the waves. PT 170/174 once complete.
The US bond market got it right in 1936, in 1947, 2008, 2011, and it still has it right today. The people doing the real dollar printing are the same people that run the biggest repo and bond trading desks - they know what's up (and it's not inflation).
Might be indicating a recession around the corner and it will be deflation. NOT inflation. Treasuries yields are also signaling deflation recession might be very near.
... for a 20.34 debit. Comments: Buying 2 x the 82 delta strike and selling the at-the-money 49 delta strike for a setup with a net delta of -115, so this is going to move a lot like short stock. Going with the January expiry to give it more time to work out if it needs it, but will look to take profit at 110% of what I put the trade on for.
Quite a run helped by yields the past 2 weeks. Hitting top of channel. More likely to see rotation to $IWM, $XLF, etc. versus this breaking out "now" but possible $NQ_F $NDX $SOX $ES_F $SPY $SPX $TLT $TNX $GLD $DXY $VIX #Trading #Stocks 📈
If this pan out and the frank gets erect it could spell trouble for risk assets
... for a 14.00 debit. Comments: Paid 12.48 to put this on during Friday's session. (See Post Below). Out today at the open for a 14.00 credit. 1.52 ($152) profit; 12.2% ROC for 3 days' "work."
In the Shadow of the Flamingo's Cheetah cordon, Casino Royale's Buy-In has begun. A Global Game of Chance? No. Baccarat, amongst the Participants, is simply a matter of Bank / Player. The Bank has a 2.5% edge. Wealthy Participants are enjoying the "Vesper" - an elixir of extraordinary mixology - Three measures of Gordon's, one of vodka, half a measure of...
... for a 12.48 debit. Comments: Here, taking a short-term directional shot in treasuries on strength by buying 2 x the 75 delta puts in the December expiry and selling a 50 delta at-the-money put, yielding a -100.79 dynamic short delta position that will have the "feel" of being short a one lot in TLT from 147.76. Will start to look to take profit at 110% of...
Bonds have responded to federal reserve 'emergency measures' for a quick timeline: 1. qe on 2. qe should be going away narrative 3. qe is not going away prediction 4. qe IS going away Bought shares of bear bond 3X etf.
A setup to take advantage of a potential rising interest rate environment without knowing exactly when rate hikes will occur. Typically, this is set up by buying two of the back month 75 deltas and selling the front month 50 delta, such that you create a spread or diagonal with a net delta metric of around 100 (+100 if a bullish assumption spread or digaonal;...
Price remains problematic in the Extreme for Equity Bulls. As does TLT and ZB. We have indicated for months - breaking 1.171 - 1.762 for the 10 Year Note Yield would commence the Next Sell Off. We shall see... 4/4 isn't complete until ZN / 10 Year Yields RESOLVE. A break of 130.005 and close under... yeah, naw, Equities will not hold up.
I think we have a low risk bottom signal here, it fits with my view of rotation back into growth names since the value stocks rally we had since the #PFE vaccine announcement. Today's CPI data gave investors some peace of mind it seems. I'm long growth and a few select equity ideas already, but a bond futures or #TLT options position might be a good proposition as...
TLT is aimless, wandering the desert which is Bonds. ZN has made new Lows for 2021 and continues to squat over the 130 Level. We believe it will fail as 10 Year Yields begin to complete their Consolidation and cross the 1.645 Level - indicating a move back to the 2021 Highs. We will be entering a SELL on Shares only. IV is not tempting enough at present as the...
Setting up for a break above March 2020 downtrend line into the top of this ascending triangle. November 22 is the Apex
Readers familiar with traditional financial world will recognise the generational downtrend of every interest rate (inverse of Bond prices) charts. US 30 Year Bond Rates are set to go near zero before the immortal rate Bear is final through. TVC:US30 TVC:US30Y NASDAQ:TLT CBOT:UB1!