This leading diagonal ended as called earlier appears to be making an ABC correction that should end when C = A at 1.75 Then, the longer term upward correction should continue in a third wave, which I think will be a C wave ending this sub-minuet level correction of the larger minute correction of the larger trend. C should be equal to A as measured from the end...
Possible reaction first, then maybe lower to D and wedge's PO $ZB_F, $ZN_F, $TLT, $IEF
DE10Y vs BAS.DE : BASF stock price tends to lead German 10 year yields. Currently, BASF signals a rate spike is in the cards followed by another low in DE10Y
This long term chart compares the SPX (orange), US10Y (white) and the Fed's National Activity Index (blue). Note the extended periods of the NAI which remain below 0 marking recession. The 10 year yield tends to peak well in advance of the next recession. On a daily basis we see ongoing concern about the 10y-3mo inverted yield curve as an indication of...
TNX has been trading within a 1M Channel Down since 2000 up until January 2018 when it broke the pattern upwards. The mini uptrend found Resistance on the MA200 and has been declining for the past 7 months. We are currently on the most support tests of all, as it has touched the 2000 Channel's Lower High trend line and will test it as a Support for the first time....
Hi all, TLT is continue to rise as expected from our update last week. Contrary to popular belief I do believe that $131 will be a meaningful top.
Approaching first target of bearish bat $TNX, $TYX, $TLT, $ZB_F
Above $124 TLT targets $131.50
Although I am structurally bearish US treasuries, I am bullish for a cyclical pop up to $131 on TLT.
Bond yields should continue higher over the coming weeks while stronger than expected data is released. All leading indicators continue to point higher for now.
35% of US treasuries are held externally, the Fed does not have full control over the interest rates until those treasuries are held internally and the US is internally funded.
US Treasury Spread - More upsides are expected.
The inverse correlation of Stocks and Bonds have been quite telling in the recent months of equity volatility. The 10Y yield went from 3.25% in early Nov to lows of 2.55% as participants flew to safety in treasuries. In the last couple weeks as equities have recovered from the Dec 24th meltdown, treasuries have been sold with yields resting now around...
US 10Y Yields entering support area: have you plan ready.
During several previous liquidity crisis in 2001,2008,2012, 2016 the investment grade corporate yields spread over treasuries hit 200+ bps ... right now at an average spread of 150 basis points, may suggest more pain ahead before capitulation is reached. In other words investment grade corporate bond yields may be still too low. Based on what we've seen during...
A nice high-probability midpoint here (circled) - the midpoint here is the price level where strong upwards momentum suddenly erupted (50% fib level goes here). Target zone is roughly 121'05 and up. Looking for stocks to put in at least a swing low when bonds hit this level.
It appears the bear market in rates may have bottomed, but I'm not seeing a continued move higher until after a retracement. Looks to me rates will once again decline, but not below the all time lows, before heading much higher over the coming years.