The Australian dollar has edged higher on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6950 in European trade. Australia's inflation rate accelerated in the second quarter, but the market reaction was muted, as the 6.1% gain was a notch below the estimate of 6.2%. Inflation still remains the RBA's number one problem, as CPI jumped from 5.1% in Q1. With inflation coming in...
INVERTED GRAPH> This isn't a shocker. It's well documented. But what is happening right now is interesting. When the stock market does better, unemployment falls. When the stock market does worse, unemployment grows. Right now, stocks have dropped but unemployment hasn't fallen. Guess what happens next? Peak unemployment will be near the end of the...
Showing the causation between new orders data and job opening data. When new orders fall, new jobs fall. RN, new orders have fallen. New jobs haven't fallen yet.
INVERTED GRAPH Unemployment rates in black. INVERTED Michigan consumer index in blue. As consumer sentiment falls, unemployment rises. Every. Time. The consumer index just fell to all-time lows. Unemployment hasn't risen. Either we have done something completely unique in the history of the stock market redefining how modern economics work... Or there's...
The euro has edged higher on Thursday, after posting losses in two consecutive sessions. The markets were treated to a data dump out of the eurozone, with some mixed numbers. On the employment front, the eurozone unemployment rate fell to 6.6%, down from 6.8% (6.7% exp.). Germany reported 133 thousand newly unemployed, a huge increase, but this reading was an...
We are dead cat bouncing. #Biden is attempting to reduce the price of oil via favourable taxes so companies will produce more oil. This could help CPI moderate. Supply chains remain crippled, so this dead cat rolls over on the next piece of bad news. This could come in the form of unemployment start to accelerate. In prior recessions, unemployment typically...
This is a simple yet extremely informative analysis of the Dow Jones (DJI) index on how its multi-year correlation with the Unemployment Rate (black trend-line) and the Inflation Rate (grey trend-line) provide the ultimate Entry/ Exit signals on the long-term. The blue trend-line is Dow's 1M MA50 and the green is the 1M MA100. As you see, with the sample starting...
INVESTMENT CONTEXT President Vladimir Putin said that Russia was not blocking Ukrainian wheat from being exported, and that the grain could be dispatched via ports controlled either by Russia or Ukraine. Before the war, Russia and Ukraine accounted for ca. 29% of international annual wheat sales U.S. economy added 390,000 jobs in May, beating analyst...
While NZDUSD continued its bearishness last week, it showed a strong move up on Wednesday to produce a Thursday high. However, it sold off very quickly as it continued its drop during Thursday's London and New York sessions. The pair mostly consolidated on Monday and Tuesday. NZ Unemployment Rate report was the only high impact news coming from New Zealand last...
Had consumers outperformed FED? If yes, then we are running into recession.
Australia's employment report was respectable, and the Australian dollar's reaction was muted. The economy created 17.9 thousand new jobs in March, down from 77.4 prior and shy of the estimate of 40.0 thousand. The unemployment rate remained at a sizzling 4.0%, the lowest since 2008. Today's numbers are unlikely to shed much light on the timeline for the RBA's...
Hey Traders, Early stages of a trade plan here, keeping an eye on the GBP unemployment rate coming out later in the week. If we manage to push higher and take out the question marked BOS, look for a pullback into this gapped area and run it long. Let me know what you think in the comments.
A Catch-22 is a problem for which the only solution is denied by a circumstance inherent in the problem or by a rule. This is exactly the problem the Federal Reserve faces. Historic inflation continues to accelerate, becoming embedded into the market's expectations and risking a spiral effect In order to stop rapid inflation, and achieve its mandate of price...
This week’s 3 events will concentrate on US employment numbers. The released figures could bolster or work against the strength found in the USD since the beginning of the year. For instance, the NZD and EUR have quickly dropped in value against the USD and are currently at a multi-month low against the greenback. Depending on this week’s numbers, the GBP, CAD,...
The Japanese yen has edged higher for a second straight day. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at the 114.00 line. In economic news, Japan releases December inflation data and the BoJ will publish the minutes of its December meeting. In the US, economic releases were mixed. Unemployment claims jumped to 287 thousand, above the forecast of 220...
On the final day of 2021, the major pairs are stuck in tight ranges. The euro is trading quietly at 1.1310 in the European session. This holiday week was characterized by a dearth of economic releases and illiquid markets. That left the markets vulnerable to volatility due to market-movement headlines, but in the end, the currency markets had a generally quiet...
This chart may help explain a return to a stronger labor market. In blue is the personal savings rate (% of PDI) & the amount of people unemployed (orange). As savings are used up, people may look to employment for additional capital to support their living. Rolling 2yr-r = 83%
Labor Force Participation is Cited by the BLS to be @ 63%~. Unfortunately, for those members of Humanity who can add and subtract... A large discrepancy exists. 59.680,000 ~ by U6 is the Factual Math. _________________________________________________ The following commentary will provide a clearer picture of the state of Employment.