$TNX has held better than short term #yields but could this be changing now? - The 2yr & 1Yr are holding. - Of course, it's early in the trading day so we'll see tomorrow morning how things go. - In reference to the post last week on #yield in 2008, we need to keep an eye on TOPS in these #bond yields. It took 1 year at that time before there was a lower high. IMO...
5.00% Target on 2yr Yield using simple trend analysis. The Fed follows the two year, so once it hits 5%, the Fed will also stop tightening.
DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a simple MACRO ANALYSIS on current bond market meltdown where the US02Y dropped nearly 25% within FIVE TRADING SESSIONS. POINTS: 1. US02Y deviation is simple & marked at every 1% difference as bonds rise and fall within the same range percentage therefore it has a rubber band like price action relationship with...
The U.S. Government Bonds 2 YR Yield (US02Y) is testing its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 31 2021. The 1W RSI is on the very same Lower Highs trend-line rejection that it was during the December 17 2018 1W MA50 test! Needless to say this shows that the price is on a critical point as when it broke in Dec 2018, a downtrend followed that...
Was kind of expected to get some bounce from #Bond #Yields. The last two days, especially yesterday, was RARE in yield price action. It happens but it's rare. The buys could have been investors trying to take advantage of higher rates being that they are "expecting" the Fed Reserve to lower rates. We mentioned that most yields, when we posted, were at or close...
Last week we mentioned that #yields cratering like they did was not normal. Currently they are all at support with $TNX holding better than short term yields. The 10Yr has BOUNCED a bit off support. In a positive note it does lessens the inverted Yield curve :D We'll see how this scenario holds. What's happening today is more SPECULATION than anything else. The...
The Debt Market is significantly larger than the #stockmarket so it's VERY IMPORTANT what happens there. It's way too early to see data but, JUST A HUNCH, this is most likely the #FED stepping in & buying bonds trying to calm the markets. This is not normal to see #yields cratering so much. The 1Yr is off almost 3.26% The 2Yr is off 5.01 The 10Yr is off...
Traders, Technicals are still on point. The only question is, "Can we tag our 200 day moving average on the BTC chart without breaking below it"? $20,000 BTC is key. Any break below means trouble. But using it as support without breaking it is technically bullish. Let's take a look at Bitcoin technicals as well as all the rest of the indicators we have been...
One of the reasons US Treasuries, and other bonds, have been selling off is the dumping by Japanese investors. All duration #YIELDS have done well but more so the shorter term. The Inverted Yield Curve has widened over the last few months but has been significantly lately. However, today we see the 1 & 10Yr ($TNX) selling off but the 2 Yr is CRATERING!...
Pull these charts up on your radar. They are key. With today’s spike on the VIX, we may see key resistance and support lines break. If any one of these critical trendlines/levels are broken, much more caution is warranted on the long side. Let’s quickly run through the charts I am observing. DXY - A break to the upside of that macro uptrend (with confirmation on...
Traders, Keep a close eye on this breakout on our fear index. So far, nothing significant has followed to the same level of price movement: the dollar is still under its macro-uptrend resistance, the US500 is still using its macro-uptrend for support logarithmically, and the US10yr/US2yr remains under resistance. But we want to track this closely to find out...
From Friday People discounted the US #Dollar $DXY but it came back beating historical tendencies (usually breaks lows before eventually coming back 1, 2 & 10 Yr $TNX Huge inverted #yield curve =expecting turbulence short term #inlfation may FORCE #FEd to keep raising bit more
Short rates flying (up to 1Yr #yield) Already broke previous highs Compare to 2 (slightly lower than previous highs) & 10 $TNX (chart tells story) #Market trading = #inflation higher vs #Fed expectation of 2% Markets not expecting recession or lower inflation NO soft landing - party on But that'll mean eventual HAWKISH FED Dilemma #stocks or #economy, only 1
Really strange market, the yield inversion continues to grow. This site actually allows price calculations, this is 10Y yield minus 2Y yield. Stock market still acting bullish, but I'm not feeling it.
Posted 1 thing on #DXY since the quoted post Was just observation Normally would've said that #DXY was done BUT held back because something didn't look right $UUP shows $ coming in last 2 days $TNX & 2yr #yield support held WEL Pumping actually #GOLD #SILVER #Crypto #stocks
Haven't heard much on #yields lately $TNX & 2yr #yield #TNX forming base, what are bonds saying here? 2yr not as strong Weekly shows squeeze in a direction soon for both #technology $NDX #NDX
I am reposting this important chart as I made some mistakes prior. Understanding the basics of Bonds is very important to traders/investors. Yields (interest rates) are like gravity to other asset classes. The higher yields go the more gravity on other asset classes. Most are unaware of this simple rule bc most traders today have never had to deal with inflation...
Quantitative Easing, a fancy way of describing a bubble, the easy way out. QE Alpha During QE Alpha, speculation lead to a massive bubble, and a painful burst. Technicals: A Fibonacci Retracement shows that price followed closely it's levels. QE Beta During QE Beta, after stabilizing from the Great Depression, and after the end of WW2, economy rose...