SuperTrend buy signal triggered. We have crossed the rubicon and are now at market levels where retail investors and permabear "professionals" who have been sitting on the sidelines during this most hated bull market in history are compelled to throw in the towel. As they finally re-enter the market, it will lead to increased volatility and I expect up to a 10%...
SO please do not mind the messiness of this chart as I had to go to the weekly view and zoom way out which squishes everything together. I made a long term chart about a month or so ago and realized that my topping date was incorrect. You see, I truly believe that Trump will not get re-elected for a second term and I am using that as the trigger date. Just my...
The VIX has never been this low, ever. The Dow's daily trading volume has never had so many massive monthly volume bars in such a short time period, unless it was a big sell off, or dip buying after a massive recession. The only risks are war, disease, or Trump getting impeached. This shutdown will cause a little pull back, but the trend will continue
I think we will get a little more of a drop early next week before we push up. This consolidation is taking a long time so I have to adjust the target accordingly. I read a very brief but probably very true tweet about end of year profit selling. This guy said that there will be minimal selling for the end of 2017 because people are probably going to hold off...
As I thumb twiddle a bit here waiting for another VXX weekly expiry to open up and for a UVXY reverse split, I'm pondering potential long-dated plays in UVXY I can put on immediately post-split that are basically "set and forget" plays. I have seen evidence in both open interest and volume of people playing both ends of the stick at split when the price of the...
As 2017 comes to a close as one of -- if not the -- lowest volatility years ever on record for the S&P and Nasdaq, I'm not hopeful that this low volatility won't continue for some time to come. To be honest, though, no one really has any way of knowing or predicting volatility going forward, except in the most obtuse of ways, such as forecasting market...
There was a massive volume spike on Friday and we are due for another intermediate cycle low. Usually that means that a top will occur a couple days later. I think I will watch the RSI. There is a massive bearish divergence from many months ago. Once the RSI reaches the red line, I feel it would be safe to short this. This could be the correction many have...
I had to scramble mightily to get these on at the 11 CST pop/VXST/VIX ratio of >1.15, first opening the 14/17 for a 2.25 debit and then the 15/18 for a 2.20 debit ... . The break even for the former is 14.75 with a max profit potential of $75/contract and a 15.80 break even for the latter with a max profit potential of $80/contract.
... for a 2.29 debit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 61% Max Profit: $71/contract Max Loss: $229/contract Break Even: 13.71 Notes: Putting on a little more UVXY long put vert in light of this little pop we had today (VXST/VIX ratio finished at .95). The January 12th weekly opens tomorrow, so may add another position there as well ... .
... for a 2.25/contract debit. Max Profit: .75 ($75)/contract Max Loss: 2.25 (225)/contract Break Even: 13.25 Notes: Basically a contango drift/beta slippage play, but playing the ball where it lies, rather than waiting for a pop ... . Going long put vert instead of my usual short call vert due to comparatively low VVIX.
With the price breaking through that blue upper trend line on Thursday, I am considering that a crack in the armor. We still have a week and a half to go before the rate hike on the 13th and so it appears that we can reach the 2700 range. Especially with all that dip buying that happened today. Yep...the Central banks really want a rate hike so they are not...
SO I do not see this as the start of that correction that we have been talking about. Now that we have gotten into November AND now that it appears that the rate hike in December is at 100%,....and the Fed absolutely wants a rate hike....I am thinking that this monster will not be allowed to make its correction until the rate hike. The Fed wants the hike and...
I think we are almost there. The charts tells my thoughts on this. So it is looking more like the 1st week on November that this tops and then we get that long awaited correction. SO I labeled this as "short" because there is no point in my opinion to post another chart until it happens. IT should be quite dramatic. Everyone is going to call for the end of...
If you like this idea leave a like and follow me to get all of my updates :) I would love to talk to you so send me a message or comment! Underlying: VIX Time frame: 1D What Has Happened So Far: For anyone that is interested in seeing the FULL post click here. I have linked it because the post is far too long to put here. What am I Looking to Happen:...
SO I have been hearing a lot about the long awaited (and very past due) market correction that analysts have been anticipating since August. SO lets assume they are correct and that there will be a large market correction in October. What can the charts help predict. Well first of all, a true ICL needs to break the low of the last DCL. Since it appears we have...
Earnings COST announces earnings on Thursday after market close. With a background implied volatility of 21%, it doesn't meet my basic earnings play sniff test, but naturally that can increase running into earnings, so it may be worth keeping an eye on. Preliminarily, the Oct 20th 158/170 short strangle currently pays 2.21 at the mid with break evens around...
With VIX settling at around 10 on Friday, there's little that catches my attention here in terms of pure premium selling. Currently, no individual underlying is up to my high implied volatility rank/high implied volatility standards and neither is any exchange-traded fund. Naturally, I'm beginning to sound like a broken record here. I mean, how many different...
In spite of various media reports that "volatility is back," anyone who plays the premium selling game knows that it isn't in significant measure. Nevertheless, there is some uptick in volatility as compared to the post-election to March volatility lull, which was a slog to get through for premium sellers who look to capitalize on a high implied volatility...