Something to gamble on if you want. How much lower can the thing go right. Stop is .35
This is my best estimate. While we could possibly already be in the C wave down and finishing up on a minor wave 2....I am thinking that the FED may continue to do the same as before and prop the market up into the FOMC meeting on March 15th. This is just a guess. If that is the case then perhaps we can reach near the 2800 level again before starting a 5 wave drop. GL
SO obviously we are in the supercycle 5th wave. Inside that, we are in the 3rd wave. Inside that 3rd wave we have just completed the smaller degree 4th wave (even thought it felt big) and are about to trek up for that smaller degree 5th and complete the larger 3rd wave. The drop for the larger 4th should be huge and impulsive just like this last drop. I was...
Entry UVXY at 15ish.
This is a commonly used calculation that many traders use, I believe it's also part of the CMT.
STOCH(17) oversold and DMI(17) holding. Gap down in oversold could be quick move to upside.
Short UVXY via long Apr20 put debits for $2.19. POP: 68% Max loss: $892 (2.19 x 4) Max Win: $308 ROC: 34.5% over 66 days Long 24 put: 36 delta Short 21 put: 30 delta I usually let these expire ITM, as my broker TW has cheap exercise fees. In the case that it expires in between strikes, then I will have to manage them by closing on expiration day.
You can see the company has the biggest volume probably ever, or in a long time at least. It is shorts covering. They revealed the previous day that they would be divesting from their VAR project, which accounted for 93% of revenue. They just diluted shares signifantly, then did a reverse split. They even tried a vote in December, which failed, so had to hold...
DMI(17): DI+ fell out of flag and heading into support around 20
Some thoughts and harmonics on the current state of the vix.
It's not often that I play leaps or think of myself as "playing leaps." In case you're wondering, a "leaps" is a "long term equity anticipation security" -- basically, a long-dated option. My most frequent use of them is in my individual retirement account where I'm working a covered call, want to hold onto the underlying for dividend generation, but also want...
After a brief moment of Backwardation this week in the term structure of the Vix futures, we came back into Contango. To me it looks like there is still some fear and buying protection is not getting cheaper, especially with earnings coming up on some of the big dogs. I believe volatility will start to come off during the next couple of days, so I want to add to...
All converging. Volume and activity dry up, if you see some nice volume in the premarket, could turn into a nice bounce in the open. These are all like, the "blue chips" of bitcoin stocks, the originals with the most volume.
This is only the 5% drop that I was talking about. I was hoping it started a week or two later but oh well.
I think I can see it.. Yes this has been very tricky. When I see it bust through then I wait to see what the market wants to show me and adjust. As you can see,....IT APPEARS...LOL....like we are if the final wave 5. Today was a small wave 4 and we should move up in the next day or two. Since the larger wave 1 was the longest, wave 5 cant be longer than wave...